My make or break moments to date in pro football
In my world, there?s nothing better than a right side winner ? no drama, no sweating ? an easy rocking chair cover.
Of course, cashing nothing but right side winners is much easier said than done. In the real world, there are so many games that come down to a single key late play that determines the SU and/or ATS winner.
As the end of the NFL season approaches. I?ve gone back through my notes, looking at some of the wackiest point spread outcomes of the year ? the really memorable ones. End of the year Top 10 lists are so pass?, so I?ll call this my Top 7 Point spread Plays of the Year.
Let?s start the countdown to No. 1
7: Week 11
Packers late FG
Green Bay was a 3-point road favorite at slumping Detroit, but they trailed for most of the game and behind by 6 at the two minute warning. Lions bettors weren?t worried ? a Packers TD, in theory, would only lead to a one point, non-covering win. Aaron Rodgers threw for that TD on the very first play after the two minute warning.
The Lions proceeded to go ?four-and-out? on their subsequent drive, leaving Green Bay the ball at Detroit?s 20 with just over a minute to play. The Packers were unable to get a first down. Jim Schwartz used his remaining timeouts, forcing Mike McCarthy to trot kicker Mason Crosby onto the field with less than 20 seconds on the clock. Crosby hit the ?meaningless? field goal and the Packers covered in a 4-point win.
6: Week 11
Carolina 4th and 1
Sometimes, the most important point spread play is not a touchdown, conversion or anything even close ? it?s a coaching decision.
Carolina?s Ron Rivera has been routinely criticized for his ultra-conservative decision making on fourth down, almost always choosing to kick. That?s a big part of the reason why his team blew a half dozen fourth quarter leads this year, including this one against Tampa Bay.
The Panthers spent most of the week priced as short home underdogs, but led by double digits with less than five minutes remaining. Following a Tampa field goal, Carolina gained one first down and faced a fourth and 1 just past midfield, needing only 36 inches to clinch the game.
Rivera chose to punt, resulting in a touchback. Bucs QB Josh Freeman led the Bucs 80 yards for the game tying score in 50 seconds without any timeouts, then did basically the same thing with the first possession of OT. Rivera?s decision to punt was an absolute ATS difference maker.
5: Week 14
Cousins 2-pt make
I?ve said it before and I?ll say it again ? the single most important point spread play in football is the two point conversion try. It affects every coaching decision thereafter whether succeeding or failing.
In Week 14, the Redskins and Ravens were lined in a pick ?em range all week, meaning that the SU winner was in position to cover the point spread. Down 8 in the fourth quarter, Redskins star rookie quarterback RG3 got hurt, forcing untested backup Kirk Cousins into the game. Cousins threw a TD pass with less than 30 seconds remaining, cutting the deficit to 2. But it was the gutsy quarterback draw for the 2-points that put the game into OT where the Redskins won on a FG, covering the spread.
4: Week 12
Rice on 4th and 29
The Ravens were in the mother of all flat spots as they headed to San Diego for a Week 12 showdown. Sharp bettors across the globe placed big wagers on the Chargers as 1-point home underdogs. Baltimore was flat as a pancake, held to just a pair of field goals as they faced a 4th and 29 in their own territory with less than a minute to play.
Unable to find an open receiver downfield, Joe Flacco dumped the ball off to Ray Rice, who eluded multiple tacklers, then extended it over the first down marker as he was finally getting tackled (at least according to the spot and the replay review). Baltimore?s miracle first down led to the game tying field goal in regulation and the winning kick in OT, covering the spread.
3: Week 13
Philly punt return TD
The Cowboys were 10-point favorites over the slumping Eagles on Sunday Night Football. In a wild, back-and forth game, Dallas finally took control with a trio of fourth quarter TD?s, including a 50-yard fumble return TD with less than four minutes remaining to take an 11 ? point, spread covering lead.
After forcing a fourth down stop, the Cowboys ran the clock down under a minute and forced the Eagles to use all their timeouts before punting. But instead of punting out of bounds, Brian Moorman boomed a 63 yarder, outkicking his coverage ? one of many decisions that head coach Jason Garrett made this year that infuriated Cowboys backers. Eagles return man Damaris Johnson fielded the punt at the 2 and raced 98 yards for the spread covering TD.
2: Week 7
Harbaugh declines the safetyT
he 49ers were a popular choice for bettors on Thursday Night Football in their matchup against the Seahawks, and the ? 7 opening spread was bet up throughout the week. The game was a defensive struggle, and San Fran led 13-6 when they had to punt with the clock winding down in the fourth quarter, pinning the Seahawks deep.
On fourth and 17 from the Seahawks 4, Russell Wilson threw a 16? yard pass to Ben Obamanu. But on the play, Seattle was flagged for an illegal chop block in the end zone, resulting in a safety. 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh demanded a measurement. When finding out that his team had made the fourth down stop he chose to decline the penalty and the safety, simply taking a knee.
San Fran bettors went from rejoicing over a miracle cover to cussing out Harbaugh in the blink of an eye (and about 10 minutes of video review.
1: Week 3
Disputed TD in Seattle
Without a doubt, the single biggest point spread play of the year was also the single most controversial NFL ending. In Week 3, on Monday Night Football, Green Bay matched up against Seattle in a defensive battle. The Packers took money all week, going off as 3.5 point road favorites.
Mike McCarthy?s squad led 12-7, in position to win and cover until the game?s final play ? a hotly disputed TD pass from Russell Wilson to Golden Tate in which the Seattle WR never seemed to have clear possession.
The replacement refs ruled that it was a catch and, after a lengthy booth review, the call was upheld giving Seattle the win and cover.
Some $15 million changed hands in Nevada alone as a result of that play, and the worldwide estimate was in the range of a $250 million swing. Now that?s a big point spread play!
