Just want to give you a little background on my handicapping history before I present these. Maybe you will think I know what I'm talking about and maybe you'll think I'm full of it. Choose for yourself. I do think I fall into the former catagory and hopefully some of these rules are things you guys might consider if you have struggled with the NFL in the past.
I have been betting the NFL since I was 14 years old with a guy from high school who took action at $5 a game. I only fooled around with it at the time, but in 1996 when I was a sophomore in college I found a campus bookie to take my action. I bet $25 per game and made money in 1996 and 1997, but I was stiffed for $150 in about week 10 of the 1997 season so I decided to go online in 1998. In 1998 I started with $250 with the goal of making $600 to pay for my wrestling pay per views for that year. I went on an incredible hot streak and found myself up a rediculous amount by about week 12 of 1998. As you may guess, I took a giant dump the rest of the way in 1998. I did, however, still turn a profit that year.
In 1999 I entered the season confident despite my poor run at the end of 1998. I started betting $25 to $50 per game. I began the season cold and never saw profit, ending the year $700 down. I thought it was a fluke so I entered the 2000 NFL season even more confident, this time having an exact bankroll of $2,700 and betting $100 per game. In November, basically right after I began posting at Mad Jack's, I hit a bad cold streak. I made much of my money back in December, but by the time the season ended I had two losing seasons in a row under my belt. In 2001 I started betting more since my bankroll was higher, this time $300 per game. I built my NFL profits as high as about $4,000 before falling off badly and ending with a profit just over $700.
So here I am with NFL 2002 about a month away and three straight disappointing seasons under my belt. I do have certain points of success to look at, but I also have an overall sense of failure in not making the kind of profits I have seen in the NBA, NHL and MLB the last two years. Because of that, I have decided to set a few rules which are different from the way I have played in the past.
In the past, I played basically entirely underdogs. I played halftime bets, some parlays, some teasers and a limited number of props. My number of bets per week usually ranged between 1 and 7. My amount for each bet was generally between $300 and $1,000. Here is what I plan to do this year. These are rules I plan to follow at the start of the year. I may change them as the year goes on to get more aggressive if I am up or more conservative if I am down.
NO TOTALS, PARLAYS, TEASERS, HALTIME BETS or PROPS
I have never had much success with NFL totals. In fact the only sport where I have ever done respectably with totals is the NHL, and even there I am not a superstar. Parlays and Teasers are sucker bets in my opinon. Halftime bets are action bets, and the whole point of making rules is to cut down my action bets. Props are something that you have to really work at and play consistently to make a profit, and I feel my time would be better spent concentrating on more traditional handicapping.
EXACTLY FIVE PLAYS PER WEEK
This may sound a bit odd. The idea that you would set an exact number of plays rather than just playing whatever games you feel have legit value is kind of counterproductive on the surface. My justification is that I am trying to build some discipline. Five games will force me to more closely evaluate what I play on weeks when I see more than five good plays and possibly help me find borderline plays with true value on weeks when I see less than five worthy plays. I got the idea from Never Caught Up, who used this strategy when entered in the Mad Jack's football contest last year. I don't think I will be entering any contests this year, but when I used the same strategy last year it left me with some very good results.
SAME DOLLAR AMOUNT ON EACH PLAY
Last year the point where my season turned sour can be exactly traced to the day I loaded up and bet $1,000 on Miami to beat New England in Foxboro. I would love to tell you guys that I have certain special plays that hit at a higher clip than others but I can't. I use very qualitative handicapping techniques and therefore any raising or lowering of bet amounts becomes somewhat arbitrary.
Those are my rules. They are certainly boring, but hopefully the excitement of a growing bankroll will make up for whatever I miss by betting like a wildman.
I have been betting the NFL since I was 14 years old with a guy from high school who took action at $5 a game. I only fooled around with it at the time, but in 1996 when I was a sophomore in college I found a campus bookie to take my action. I bet $25 per game and made money in 1996 and 1997, but I was stiffed for $150 in about week 10 of the 1997 season so I decided to go online in 1998. In 1998 I started with $250 with the goal of making $600 to pay for my wrestling pay per views for that year. I went on an incredible hot streak and found myself up a rediculous amount by about week 12 of 1998. As you may guess, I took a giant dump the rest of the way in 1998. I did, however, still turn a profit that year.
In 1999 I entered the season confident despite my poor run at the end of 1998. I started betting $25 to $50 per game. I began the season cold and never saw profit, ending the year $700 down. I thought it was a fluke so I entered the 2000 NFL season even more confident, this time having an exact bankroll of $2,700 and betting $100 per game. In November, basically right after I began posting at Mad Jack's, I hit a bad cold streak. I made much of my money back in December, but by the time the season ended I had two losing seasons in a row under my belt. In 2001 I started betting more since my bankroll was higher, this time $300 per game. I built my NFL profits as high as about $4,000 before falling off badly and ending with a profit just over $700.
So here I am with NFL 2002 about a month away and three straight disappointing seasons under my belt. I do have certain points of success to look at, but I also have an overall sense of failure in not making the kind of profits I have seen in the NBA, NHL and MLB the last two years. Because of that, I have decided to set a few rules which are different from the way I have played in the past.
In the past, I played basically entirely underdogs. I played halftime bets, some parlays, some teasers and a limited number of props. My number of bets per week usually ranged between 1 and 7. My amount for each bet was generally between $300 and $1,000. Here is what I plan to do this year. These are rules I plan to follow at the start of the year. I may change them as the year goes on to get more aggressive if I am up or more conservative if I am down.
NO TOTALS, PARLAYS, TEASERS, HALTIME BETS or PROPS
I have never had much success with NFL totals. In fact the only sport where I have ever done respectably with totals is the NHL, and even there I am not a superstar. Parlays and Teasers are sucker bets in my opinon. Halftime bets are action bets, and the whole point of making rules is to cut down my action bets. Props are something that you have to really work at and play consistently to make a profit, and I feel my time would be better spent concentrating on more traditional handicapping.
EXACTLY FIVE PLAYS PER WEEK
This may sound a bit odd. The idea that you would set an exact number of plays rather than just playing whatever games you feel have legit value is kind of counterproductive on the surface. My justification is that I am trying to build some discipline. Five games will force me to more closely evaluate what I play on weeks when I see more than five good plays and possibly help me find borderline plays with true value on weeks when I see less than five worthy plays. I got the idea from Never Caught Up, who used this strategy when entered in the Mad Jack's football contest last year. I don't think I will be entering any contests this year, but when I used the same strategy last year it left me with some very good results.
SAME DOLLAR AMOUNT ON EACH PLAY
Last year the point where my season turned sour can be exactly traced to the day I loaded up and bet $1,000 on Miami to beat New England in Foxboro. I would love to tell you guys that I have certain special plays that hit at a higher clip than others but I can't. I use very qualitative handicapping techniques and therefore any raising or lowering of bet amounts becomes somewhat arbitrary.
Those are my rules. They are certainly boring, but hopefully the excitement of a growing bankroll will make up for whatever I miss by betting like a wildman.
