my take on dlh-mosely...paralysis by analysis

[gardenweasel]

my analysis on this compelling bout.....

i`ve read that shane has a longer reach than dlh....i disagree....forget the numbers....the height dictates the reach advantage..if you go by the numbers,mosely had a longer reach than forrest....he didn`t......and in my experience watching mosely,he fights "short armed"...... i think that forrest exposed that.....mosely is an extremely fast combination puncher....if dlh wants to use his jab and clinch,much like forrest,he`ll give himself an excellent chance to reverse the first bout....i really believe that the most telling aspect of the first fight was the timing....by that i mean dlh`s coming off the embarrassing loss to trinidad when he had the fight won easily..i believe only one fight fell in between the 2.....he was lambasted in the mexican press and by the hardcore mexican fans as being a coward........

dlh was out to prove that he had machismo and stated as much....and as a tall guy that needs room to punch...basically at that time,a one handed fighter,falling into an inside punchout with a faster combination puncher was doomed to failure.....dlh failed to establish the correct distance in that fight...if he does the same thing,he`ll lose again...

i saw forrest confuse and discourage mosely with that jab setting up those straight right hands.....and i think mosely`s body was exposed,somewhat...mosely was hurt to the body by forrest....

add the fact that it`s been quite a long while since mosely`s been successful in the ring....i mean,he really didn`t even look very good vs raul marquez....he really could have used a fight or two after the forrest losses...marquez only went a few rounds....not sharp ones at that.....

instead of stepping into mosely`s inside quickness,dlh has to stay outside....like most taller mexican fighters,he needs room to throw those hooks and combo`s...

it`s all about the distance....shane can`t stand outside and throw those multiple combos....dlh has to keep pumping that jab and make mosely reset time and again.....

if this reverts to another inside punchout,mosely should win....if dlh is smart,and fight`s smart,i think he`ll reverse the first decision....maybe even have a shot at a late round stoppage....i really wonder about mosely`s confidence....


but,dlh has trouble with slick,quick guys......pernell whitaker probably won his bout with dlh....i expect mosely to switch back and forth between southpaw and orthodox stances much like the first fight...lefties do give dlh some trouble....

not real keen on wagering on this bout....the stuff about dlh`s injured left hand....it may be fine going into the bout....but if he injures it during the bout,he`s done....forget the "new improved" right hand...dlh is a predominantly left handed fighter....

with that said,as these odds go higher and higher,i may have to take a shot with mosely if it approaches 3-1....+250 would be fine....was considering oscar by stoppage as a small hedge,but i`m not sure...hard to picture this as anything but a distance fight....
this one`s a crapshoot.....that`s what makes it so compelling....

i wish i saw a clear cut angle here.....i don`t.....so many variables...i`m not gonna force it.....unless something earth shattering comes up...

 

[yak rider]

hmmmm

hmmmm

thanks for the write gl. man, i agree all the way with it being so tough to call. so many variables and possibilities. i just can't understand why sooo many think that one is a lead pipe pick over the other. guess half of em will be right and have bragging rights. lol anyway i too think the value play of mosely getting a big number and the fight going the distance are the better plays but possibly a fight to watch and hopefully enjoy more than anything. still like stevie as a dog?

 

[badjab]

nice breakdown GW! De la Hoya does possess a sharp, fight controlling jab...though I have to believe at some point that the hand becomes an issue. If so, Oscar will likely lose on points.

 

[gardenweasel]

another thing i failed to touch on

another thing i failed to touch on

btw....thanks badjab for allowing me to glom your tenn-browns teaser:shrug: ......

i think that in many cases(not all),you get a similar result in the rematch...but there are different dynamics at work here....

in the first fight,mosely came in as the undefeated guy....almost seeming to be invincible.....i believe,in his own mind,he was invincible...he was at the top of many pfp lists....

a lot of things have gone by the boards in three years....mosely has lost twice....pretty convincingly....was almost k.o.`ed more than once in the forrest fights....

and then looked unimpressive in the short marquez bout....it`s been over 2 years since mosely has performed impressively in the ring.....

the mental aspect of this fight is crucial....mosely beat dlh the first time...as an undefeated,future all time great.....boy,have things changed...

now,mosely knows he can be hurt ....knows he can be beaten....might not be as fearless in the ring as he was the first time......not as willing to take the chances he took in the first bout...

this isn`t the same bout...things are different....but he did beat dlh fair and square the first time....dlh hasn`t fought anybody nearly as fast or slick as mosely since whitaker...and i believe he lost the whitaker bout.....is this a flaw in the dlh style?....did the trinidad loss f-ck his head up prior to mosely?

that said,the odds on this thing should be no more than 7 or 8-5 tops.....

wtf is up with these odds?.....are the books trying to steer us toward mosely?.....seems that way....what if dlh hurts that dominant left hand early in the fight?....he`s through....

this is why i think it`s crazy to go heavy on this just because it`s a high profile bout.....

 

[UT-Longhorn]

After further review, im taking DLH -250 for a nickel, think he gets it done tomorrow nite..........

 

[TheShrimp]

Nice stuff weas. I agree with everything you said but I'd like a better price on sugar. I've got some butter 'n egg money on mosley at +175.

I'll have to wait till the rerun to see it.

You wrote this, "but he did beat dlh fair and square the first time....dlh hasn`t fought anybody nearly as fast or slick as mosely since whitaker...and i believe he lost the whitaker bout.....is this a flaw in the dlh style?"

I think it is, and that's where I come down on it. It's hard to find a weakness in DLH. He's usually the quicker more technical fighter but not so against Felix and Sugar.

Looking forward to a good fight and see what we can do with the Mosley bet.

GL

 

[gardenweasel]

longhorns

longhorns

i hope for your sake that the left hand holds up.....i wish i knew just how fragile that hand is....or whether they`re blowing smoke....

nice to see badjab and shrimp back in the fold.....what happened?.....you guys were missed.....fletch was on here asking about you guys awhile back.....

 

[yak rider]

yipes

yipes

dlh -250 for a nickel. holy moley well good luck. personally i feel there are better (read more secure) fights to go that high on. sometimes it can be more profitable to play and win a less glamorus fight than to play the one with all the glitz. i know it's not as exciting to sit in a room full of friends and cheer for a fighter who ya got nuttin bet on than one ya got a ton on, but....... a nickel?? however, half of the bettors will be able to say i told ya so and knew it all the way. the other half . personally i am on same wave length as gw. i don't see a clear cut prediction either way and will tread lightly on the side anyway. good luck horns

 

[UT-Longhorn]

Re: longhorns

Re: longhorns

i hope for your sake that the left hand holds up.....i wish i knew just how fragile that hand is....or whether they`re blowing smoke....

nice to see badjab and shrimp back in the fold.....what happened?.....you guys were missed.....fletch was on here asking about you guys awhile back.....

I think the injured hand is all hype.........if it was hurt that bad, he would have delayed the fight.........just my 2 cents......good luck

 

[UT-Longhorn]

Re: yipes

Re: yipes

dlh -250 for a nickel. holy moley well good luck. personally i feel there are better (read more secure) fights to go that high on. sometimes it can be more profitable to play and win a less glamorus fight than to play the one with all the glitz. i know it's not as exciting to sit in a room full of friends and cheer for a fighter who ya got nuttin bet on than one ya got a ton on, but....... a nickel?? however, half of the bettors will be able to say i told ya so and knew it all the way. the other half . personally i am on same wave length as gw. i don't see a clear cut prediction either way and will tread lightly on the side anyway. good luck horns

Well, I finally got the pick out of a very well known boxing capper that is 16-2 in his last 18 fights, and he is taking DLH, so if someone that good takes DLH, i cant help but tail........good luck to whoever yall choose.........

 

[gardenweasel]

g.l.horns....

g.l.horns....

i wish you the best......i hope it`s a good bout....

i just heard floyd sr. say he expects oscar to be more "elusitive".......i ran to my computer and put a little on mosely by decision at +365(lol-joining a few of my esteemed colleagues on the forum on it))......one thing that i noticed was that mosely looked very muscular....i hope that doesn`t rob him of his speed and his stamina in the later rounds......

tonight`s espn2 fights were held at the venue for tomorrow`s fights.....the ring is a full 20 by 20....that`s a nice roomy ring.....i fully expect this to go the distance barring a butt or a cut....might add a little bit on over 10.5......and of course,throwing away the obligatory $10 on a draw(+1900)....

very small....to many variables...gonna enjoy this without getting upset....g.l. guys...

 

[crookycymru]

I thought I would respond in Gardenweasel's thread, as he is the guy who deserves the most respect in this forum.

That decision was a absolute scandal. I am very interested in hearing Fletchers take on that decision, as I believe I am not wrong in thinking Fletch has said on more than one occasion, that he wishes some past fights had taken place in Vegas, as you would not get a strange decision in Vegas. However, I have seen it all. Mosley's corner were lying in that interview after the fight, there is no way they were worried about taking this to points because this is Oscar De La Hoya land, but they knew they were well behind in the fight. Mosley lost by at least six points in my book.

A lot of respect for De La Hoya who took it like a man in answering that arrogant dinosaur Larry 'HBO' guy, but he must be privately seething over this one.

 

[UT-Longhorn]

Yea, I think it was fixed, especially after seeing the entire fight, and scoring it myself with DLH winning, but now that my wager has been graded, what can I do? Nothing........but yea, DLH shoulda won that one, he got robbed.........

 

[gardenweasel]

as i said in bl`s thread

as i said in bl`s thread

i rode the "shane by decision" train.....happy to win....but feeling a little soiled......it`s sort of funny hearing jack mosley telling his son he absolutely needed a stoppage...... or at least a knockdown to win the fight....and seeing shane`s expression when the decision was read.......

another unfortunate incident in boxing.....

manny steward mentioned how finishing stronger in vegas bouts appears to carry alot of weight.......that`s also unfortunate.......scoring is subjective.......but i have to say i`m surprised all 3 saw it the same way when the majority didn`t....

that`s boxing....at it`s worst....i`ve seen worse decisions....but,imo,dlh won more rounds than mosely...that`s how it`s supposed to go....

you never know in boxing

 

[yyz]

I am very interested in hearing Fletchers take on that decision, as I believe I am not wrong in thinking Fletch has said on more than one occasion, that he wishes some past fights had taken place in Vegas, as you would not get a strange decision in Vegas.

Eric won, so I doubt you'l be hearing too much.