- Dec 9, 2017
- 41
- 29
- 18
Do what you like with the info. I see five playable spots. Could be more wagers depending on weather and some late developments. Here's my analysis. Hope some find it helpful:
LAST WEEK'S UPDATE:* *Last week, I posted 5 wins and 3 losses -- for a net win of +$340.* That puts me at +14 games over .500 for the season after 14 weeks.* Three weeks of the regular season remain.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS:*
On to this week's games (lines current as of Saturday afternoon).* I made five wagers:
Philadelphia at NY Giants
The big question is -- how much does the injury to QB Wentz change things for Philadelphia?* Obviously, Eagles are not nearly as potent offensively.* However, backup QB Foles appears to be a solid replacement.* He's experienced and played well enough in relief effort last week versus Rams.* Foles has plenty to prove and gets his opportunity with a very solid team.* While Foles could face problems versus tougher competition in playoffs, I don't expect Eagles to suffer in this spot, versus an inferior opponent in the*midst of a chaotic transition phase.* Philadelphia comes off two very tough road games and plays as a visitor for the fourth time in last five games.* That keeps me off the Eagles laying at least a touchdown (current*line is bouncing between -7 and -7.5).* As an overly cautious contrarian, I won't lay this number in a game where Eagles could be road weary, especially against a divisional foe.* But teasing Eagles down across all the key numbers to -1 looks to be worth a wager.* This is more of an "against NYG" play, as we saw interim head coach Spagnuolo fail to ignite the offense, which is averaging just 13 PPG it's last four outings.* Eagles' defense hasn't played well in recent weeks, but they get a much softer opponent here.* Look for Giants to continue struggling to score (most they've scored all in a game all season was 24).* I think Giants loss by 20 to a very average Dallas team last week indicates they've lost interest.* Eagles should get the easy win here.* Teasing Philadelphia down to -1.
Cincinnati at Minnesota
Vikings will get the other spot on my teaser card.* Lots to support a wager on Minnesota here.* First, Vikings are clearly one of the class teams of the NFC.* I was more impressed with Vikings' never-give-up attitude loss last week at Carolina than in any of their wins.* Vikings could have mailed in the game when down by 11 points, but refused and eventually tied the game late.* That's an impressive performance that reveals much about how solid this team is.* I don't think a Mike Zimmer defense will give up as many yards and points this week, especially versus a hapless opponent which looks to have thrown in the towel for the season.* I correctly called for a Chicago win last week against deflated Bengals coming off the last-second loss to Steelers.* Bears ass-kicked Cincinnati and now this team has to go on the road for a late-season game with nothing to play for.* Hard to see how Bengals show up for this contest.* Vikings did not come out of the Carolina game healthy.* That keeps me off them laying -10.5.* However, I see the Vikings as very teasable here from -10.5 down to -4.5.* I can't envision a scenario where Cincinnati keeps this close.* Minnesota doesn't make mistakes or commit costly turnovers.* Vikings defense is solid enough to shut down any opponent, especially Cincinnati.* Vikings are 5-1 at home this season and return back to the north for the*first time since their*big win against Rams in mid-November.* Vikings eyeing NFC home-field advantage, so don't expect a letdown here.* Teasing Minnesota down to -4.5.
Arizona at Washington
Tough to predict motivation for both teams in this game.* But strong lean is to Arizona getting +4.* Cardinals showed some fight in their*upset win at home last week hosting Tennessee.* In fact, Cardinals have been feisty in last three games -- two wins (Tenn and Jax) and a loss to Rams.* Cardinals get a much softer opponent this week and certainly have enough talent to keep this within the margin.* Redskins should be laying -3, at most.* Losers of 4 of last 5, Redskins looked dreadful in previous two games.* This should be a close game where points will matter.* Shop around for best line and get the +4 which could matter (about half the books line this at +3.5).* Even with the added -115 vig, I think there's enough fuel in Arizona's tank to cover the number.* The best wager of all is probably Arizona +180 on the moneyline.* Since there are lots of question marks for both teams and we especially aren't sure what Washington will do coming off two bad games, this looks to be the best +EV wager on the board this week.* For now, my only wager is Cardinals +4.* But that moneyline bet should also be considered.* Also of interest -- Arizona +3 in the first half at -120/* Despite losing record, Cards are a better than average first-half team.* I'll play them getting the FG in a game that looks very unpredictable.
New England at Pittsburgh
I think Pittsburgh is a fraud.* That might sound ridiculous for a team that's won eight straight.* But Steelers win lots of ugly non-covering games and seem to get opponents that continuously self-destruct.* That won't happen this week as we get what's quite likely to be an AFC Championship preview.* I had a funny feeling the Patriots might mail in a lackluster effort last week on MNF in what essentially was a meaningless game.* If New England wins this game, that loss to Miami won't matter.* I suspect Bill Belichick knew exactly what he was doing and plans to make a statement this week.* I look at Pittsburgh's W-L record and aside from Minnesota, all I see are pigs.* The line is probably tilted too far in favor of the visitor as there's no way power ratings would have New England favored by -6 on a neutral field.* So, the game line at -3 doesn't seem to make much sense.* However, this is one of those intuition games where I expect the better team to rise to the occasion and assert some dominance.* We've seen that happen before with Patriots, and I think it happens again here.* I'm laying the -3.* I also expect the Patriots'*superior defense to be the difference in this game.
Dallas at Oakland
Last week, I noted Dallas had completely changed its offensive game plan into a run-run-run team and since that seems to be working, they will probably continue that focus.* I think that leads to another UNDER here, in a Sunday Night game totally just a bit high at 46.* Cowboys have played to the UNDER in 5 of last 6.* Oakland has played to the UNDER last 4 straight.* Total still high and based on what could be some outdated perceptions of both teams.* Oakland's offense is very mediocre (20th in yards / 21st in points), and Dallas is somewhat one-dimensional, even with RB Elliot on suspension (Dallas continues to run behind the OL and throw short passes).* Yet, both defenses are ranked top 10 (Oakland #9 and Dallas #10).* Both teams are still in the playoff hunt, though will need some help to get in as wild cards.* I think that sense of desperation leads to a close, relatively low-scoring contest.* I'd total this closer to 43.* So, this number has value and I'm betting UNDER 46.
OTHER GAMES AND THOUGHTS:
GB at CAR --*Packers' QB Rogers listed as "probable."* That means he'll most certainly start.* Nonetheless, it's surprising to see the*line move from Carolina -1 to -3 (with added vig).* The intangible here isn't just Rogers as the QB but how he could inspire a better effort from the rest of the team.* Packers have played well the last three weeks (yeah, I know -- they struggled to beat Cleveland in OT).* Rogers gives Green Bay added confidence.* Green Bay must run the table the rest of the way versus three winning teams to make the playoffs.* I expect they will give Carolina a tough fight here.* Tempting to wager on Packers getting +3.* If I was getting just a half-point more, I'd probably take the dog.* But given some reasonable questions about Rogers being at 100 percent keeps me off the dog.* I can't imagine why anyone would play Carolina laying a field goal in this game, especially coming off a huge home win.* I think that's a horrible wager.
MIA at BUF -- First thing to look at for a Buffalo home game in December is the weather.* Temperatures expected to be in the 20s, but no snow.* I can't lay -3 with Buffalo given*their offensive challenges.* QB Taylor listed as probable.* But I want no piece of Miami either, especially coming off huge home MNF upset over New England, on a*short week of travel.* Total looks about right at 39.* No action.
HOU at JAX -- Normally, I'd be on Houston getting +11.* But Jacksonville has won 6 of 7 and is probably headed to a division title.* Jaguars playing their third straight at home and face a beat up opponent with plenty of injuries coming off a terrible game last week.* Houston committed numerous mental mistakes and stupid penalties.* Texans' defensive backs looked lost much of the second half.* Really bad spot for Houston.* Meanwhile, Jacksonville has scored 30 each of the last two weeks and could get there again.* Versus a top-notch Jags defense, hard to see how Texans score enough points to keep up, especially with third-stringer T.J. Yates reportedly getting the start.* Tempting to tease the favorite down to a smaller number (-5), but RB Fournette listed as questionable which makes Jacksonville less attractive.* I'll pass on the game instead.
NYJ at NOR -- One expects New Orleans to massacre the Jets.* I made one of my worst wagers of the season last week, believing in the Jets to show up at Denver.* Instead, they were dominated in every phase of the game.* Clearly, this team doesn't play well on the road (1-5 ATS), with their*only road*victory at Cleveland (Jets are quite a different team at home).* The line is now up to -15 due to QB McCown's injury.* Who'd have thought McCown would be worth so many points?* The question mark is -- how seriously will New Orleans take this game?* They've played down to their level of competition twice at home this season, nearly losing outright to Washington and struggling badly versus Chicago.* With game of the year on deck next week, playing Atlanta at home in the rematch, not sure New Orleans goes all out in this contest.* Tempting as it is to take Jets, after that humiliation last week at Denver, there's no way I touch these pigs in a road game.
BAL at CLE -- I've been staring at this game for a bit and I still can't figure out which side I like.* That likely means -- pass.* Tough to predict the emotional state of Browns, which led 21-7 at one point last week and seemed destined to get their first win hosting Green Bay.* The meltdown in that game could carry over to a lackluster effort here.* Trouble is, Baltimore suffered perhaps a worse emotional blow last week losing at Pittsburgh.* To the Ravens' credit, the offense has looked spectacular of late, crossing the 20+ point mark for six straight games.* So, one would expect points to come easy against Cleveland, which was soundly defeated by two touchdowns in the previous meeting.* This is probably a square versus sharps divide, with the betting public all over Baltimore laying the -7 and the contrarians taking the Browns at home getting the points versus a division rival.* I just can't bring myself to take the Browns which has been so awful against the spread (just 3-10 this season).* Strong lean to the OVER 41.
LAR at SEA -- Two teams coming off tough losses last week.* Both defenses looked awful.* Obviously, Seattle is not the top caliber team that's been so strong at home during the last several seasons.* Seahawks just 2-4 against-the-spread.* That's reflected in a light number here, laying just -1.5.* Value is probably with Seattle at this low number.* But I'm not laying it against Rams coming off a loss who could be even more desperate for a win.* Rain is predicted with some wind, so that could create issues with both*passing games.* Total seems a bit high at 47.5 -- so the UNDER is definitely worth a look.* First game produced a 16-10 final score.* In a rematch that could be for the division title, I'm expecting a game played closer to the vest by both coaches.* Watch the weather and if 47 starts popping up, move fast and grab the 47.5.* This will be a game-time decision for me, barring some breaking weather news.
TEN at SFO -- Seems strange to see a 3-10 team*favored over a playoff contender, but 49ers do look like a completely different unit with QB Garopollo as the starter (now 2-0 both SU and ATS).* Watching game at Houston last week, 49ers played smart tough football and are clearly a team headed in the right direction.* Meanwhile, hard to figure out what's going on with Tennessee, which is perhaps the biggest Jekyll-Hyde team in the league.* They could lose each of the next three and finish at 8-8 (JAX and LAR are slated as*the final two games), so this game is absolutely critical to have any shot at making the playoffs.* That added motivation, especially coming off an embarrassing loss, would lead me to take the Titans normally, especially getting points.* But Tennessee offense looked horrific in Arizona last week and I'm not convinced this is a unit that can fix its problems in a second straight road game.* Lean to Titans here, but I'm not touching the game with my money.
ATL at TB -- I'd be very wary of laying -6 with Falcons here.* This could be a repeat upset of the caliber we saw last week when Miami shocked New England.* Home dog has nothing to play for, so this game becomes their Super Bowl (it's happened last few weeks -- Cincy and Miami both covered as big dogs against the superior division rival).* Looks like a possible repeat here.* Atlanta will be focused on two huge games which are upcoming -- versus New Orleans and Carolina.* This is a game they could even afford to lose, assuming Falcons can run the table in the last two.* So, I'm not sure Atlanta comes with a full force here or shows much, not on a short week with the Saints on deck.* I may play this on game night, especially if line hits +6.5.* At +7 this is an automatic play.* Atlanta laying anything close to this number is the most square bet on the board this week.* Strong advice to either take the dog or stay off the game completely.*
MY WAGERS:
Teaser:* Philadelphia -1 / Minnesota -4.5 (Risking $330 to win $300) -- ties lose
Arizona +4 (-115) vs. Washington (Risking $245 to win $200)
First Half:* Arizona +3 (-120) vs. Washington (Risking $240 to win $200)
New England -3 vs. Pittsburgh (Risking $220 to win $200)
Dallas / Oakland UNDER 46 (Risking $220 to win $200)
Good luck!
LAST WEEK'S UPDATE:* *Last week, I posted 5 wins and 3 losses -- for a net win of +$340.* That puts me at +14 games over .500 for the season after 14 weeks.* Three weeks of the regular season remain.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS:*
On to this week's games (lines current as of Saturday afternoon).* I made five wagers:
Philadelphia at NY Giants
The big question is -- how much does the injury to QB Wentz change things for Philadelphia?* Obviously, Eagles are not nearly as potent offensively.* However, backup QB Foles appears to be a solid replacement.* He's experienced and played well enough in relief effort last week versus Rams.* Foles has plenty to prove and gets his opportunity with a very solid team.* While Foles could face problems versus tougher competition in playoffs, I don't expect Eagles to suffer in this spot, versus an inferior opponent in the*midst of a chaotic transition phase.* Philadelphia comes off two very tough road games and plays as a visitor for the fourth time in last five games.* That keeps me off the Eagles laying at least a touchdown (current*line is bouncing between -7 and -7.5).* As an overly cautious contrarian, I won't lay this number in a game where Eagles could be road weary, especially against a divisional foe.* But teasing Eagles down across all the key numbers to -1 looks to be worth a wager.* This is more of an "against NYG" play, as we saw interim head coach Spagnuolo fail to ignite the offense, which is averaging just 13 PPG it's last four outings.* Eagles' defense hasn't played well in recent weeks, but they get a much softer opponent here.* Look for Giants to continue struggling to score (most they've scored all in a game all season was 24).* I think Giants loss by 20 to a very average Dallas team last week indicates they've lost interest.* Eagles should get the easy win here.* Teasing Philadelphia down to -1.
Cincinnati at Minnesota
Vikings will get the other spot on my teaser card.* Lots to support a wager on Minnesota here.* First, Vikings are clearly one of the class teams of the NFC.* I was more impressed with Vikings' never-give-up attitude loss last week at Carolina than in any of their wins.* Vikings could have mailed in the game when down by 11 points, but refused and eventually tied the game late.* That's an impressive performance that reveals much about how solid this team is.* I don't think a Mike Zimmer defense will give up as many yards and points this week, especially versus a hapless opponent which looks to have thrown in the towel for the season.* I correctly called for a Chicago win last week against deflated Bengals coming off the last-second loss to Steelers.* Bears ass-kicked Cincinnati and now this team has to go on the road for a late-season game with nothing to play for.* Hard to see how Bengals show up for this contest.* Vikings did not come out of the Carolina game healthy.* That keeps me off them laying -10.5.* However, I see the Vikings as very teasable here from -10.5 down to -4.5.* I can't envision a scenario where Cincinnati keeps this close.* Minnesota doesn't make mistakes or commit costly turnovers.* Vikings defense is solid enough to shut down any opponent, especially Cincinnati.* Vikings are 5-1 at home this season and return back to the north for the*first time since their*big win against Rams in mid-November.* Vikings eyeing NFC home-field advantage, so don't expect a letdown here.* Teasing Minnesota down to -4.5.
Arizona at Washington
Tough to predict motivation for both teams in this game.* But strong lean is to Arizona getting +4.* Cardinals showed some fight in their*upset win at home last week hosting Tennessee.* In fact, Cardinals have been feisty in last three games -- two wins (Tenn and Jax) and a loss to Rams.* Cardinals get a much softer opponent this week and certainly have enough talent to keep this within the margin.* Redskins should be laying -3, at most.* Losers of 4 of last 5, Redskins looked dreadful in previous two games.* This should be a close game where points will matter.* Shop around for best line and get the +4 which could matter (about half the books line this at +3.5).* Even with the added -115 vig, I think there's enough fuel in Arizona's tank to cover the number.* The best wager of all is probably Arizona +180 on the moneyline.* Since there are lots of question marks for both teams and we especially aren't sure what Washington will do coming off two bad games, this looks to be the best +EV wager on the board this week.* For now, my only wager is Cardinals +4.* But that moneyline bet should also be considered.* Also of interest -- Arizona +3 in the first half at -120/* Despite losing record, Cards are a better than average first-half team.* I'll play them getting the FG in a game that looks very unpredictable.
New England at Pittsburgh
I think Pittsburgh is a fraud.* That might sound ridiculous for a team that's won eight straight.* But Steelers win lots of ugly non-covering games and seem to get opponents that continuously self-destruct.* That won't happen this week as we get what's quite likely to be an AFC Championship preview.* I had a funny feeling the Patriots might mail in a lackluster effort last week on MNF in what essentially was a meaningless game.* If New England wins this game, that loss to Miami won't matter.* I suspect Bill Belichick knew exactly what he was doing and plans to make a statement this week.* I look at Pittsburgh's W-L record and aside from Minnesota, all I see are pigs.* The line is probably tilted too far in favor of the visitor as there's no way power ratings would have New England favored by -6 on a neutral field.* So, the game line at -3 doesn't seem to make much sense.* However, this is one of those intuition games where I expect the better team to rise to the occasion and assert some dominance.* We've seen that happen before with Patriots, and I think it happens again here.* I'm laying the -3.* I also expect the Patriots'*superior defense to be the difference in this game.
Dallas at Oakland
Last week, I noted Dallas had completely changed its offensive game plan into a run-run-run team and since that seems to be working, they will probably continue that focus.* I think that leads to another UNDER here, in a Sunday Night game totally just a bit high at 46.* Cowboys have played to the UNDER in 5 of last 6.* Oakland has played to the UNDER last 4 straight.* Total still high and based on what could be some outdated perceptions of both teams.* Oakland's offense is very mediocre (20th in yards / 21st in points), and Dallas is somewhat one-dimensional, even with RB Elliot on suspension (Dallas continues to run behind the OL and throw short passes).* Yet, both defenses are ranked top 10 (Oakland #9 and Dallas #10).* Both teams are still in the playoff hunt, though will need some help to get in as wild cards.* I think that sense of desperation leads to a close, relatively low-scoring contest.* I'd total this closer to 43.* So, this number has value and I'm betting UNDER 46.
OTHER GAMES AND THOUGHTS:
GB at CAR --*Packers' QB Rogers listed as "probable."* That means he'll most certainly start.* Nonetheless, it's surprising to see the*line move from Carolina -1 to -3 (with added vig).* The intangible here isn't just Rogers as the QB but how he could inspire a better effort from the rest of the team.* Packers have played well the last three weeks (yeah, I know -- they struggled to beat Cleveland in OT).* Rogers gives Green Bay added confidence.* Green Bay must run the table the rest of the way versus three winning teams to make the playoffs.* I expect they will give Carolina a tough fight here.* Tempting to wager on Packers getting +3.* If I was getting just a half-point more, I'd probably take the dog.* But given some reasonable questions about Rogers being at 100 percent keeps me off the dog.* I can't imagine why anyone would play Carolina laying a field goal in this game, especially coming off a huge home win.* I think that's a horrible wager.
MIA at BUF -- First thing to look at for a Buffalo home game in December is the weather.* Temperatures expected to be in the 20s, but no snow.* I can't lay -3 with Buffalo given*their offensive challenges.* QB Taylor listed as probable.* But I want no piece of Miami either, especially coming off huge home MNF upset over New England, on a*short week of travel.* Total looks about right at 39.* No action.
HOU at JAX -- Normally, I'd be on Houston getting +11.* But Jacksonville has won 6 of 7 and is probably headed to a division title.* Jaguars playing their third straight at home and face a beat up opponent with plenty of injuries coming off a terrible game last week.* Houston committed numerous mental mistakes and stupid penalties.* Texans' defensive backs looked lost much of the second half.* Really bad spot for Houston.* Meanwhile, Jacksonville has scored 30 each of the last two weeks and could get there again.* Versus a top-notch Jags defense, hard to see how Texans score enough points to keep up, especially with third-stringer T.J. Yates reportedly getting the start.* Tempting to tease the favorite down to a smaller number (-5), but RB Fournette listed as questionable which makes Jacksonville less attractive.* I'll pass on the game instead.
NYJ at NOR -- One expects New Orleans to massacre the Jets.* I made one of my worst wagers of the season last week, believing in the Jets to show up at Denver.* Instead, they were dominated in every phase of the game.* Clearly, this team doesn't play well on the road (1-5 ATS), with their*only road*victory at Cleveland (Jets are quite a different team at home).* The line is now up to -15 due to QB McCown's injury.* Who'd have thought McCown would be worth so many points?* The question mark is -- how seriously will New Orleans take this game?* They've played down to their level of competition twice at home this season, nearly losing outright to Washington and struggling badly versus Chicago.* With game of the year on deck next week, playing Atlanta at home in the rematch, not sure New Orleans goes all out in this contest.* Tempting as it is to take Jets, after that humiliation last week at Denver, there's no way I touch these pigs in a road game.
BAL at CLE -- I've been staring at this game for a bit and I still can't figure out which side I like.* That likely means -- pass.* Tough to predict the emotional state of Browns, which led 21-7 at one point last week and seemed destined to get their first win hosting Green Bay.* The meltdown in that game could carry over to a lackluster effort here.* Trouble is, Baltimore suffered perhaps a worse emotional blow last week losing at Pittsburgh.* To the Ravens' credit, the offense has looked spectacular of late, crossing the 20+ point mark for six straight games.* So, one would expect points to come easy against Cleveland, which was soundly defeated by two touchdowns in the previous meeting.* This is probably a square versus sharps divide, with the betting public all over Baltimore laying the -7 and the contrarians taking the Browns at home getting the points versus a division rival.* I just can't bring myself to take the Browns which has been so awful against the spread (just 3-10 this season).* Strong lean to the OVER 41.
LAR at SEA -- Two teams coming off tough losses last week.* Both defenses looked awful.* Obviously, Seattle is not the top caliber team that's been so strong at home during the last several seasons.* Seahawks just 2-4 against-the-spread.* That's reflected in a light number here, laying just -1.5.* Value is probably with Seattle at this low number.* But I'm not laying it against Rams coming off a loss who could be even more desperate for a win.* Rain is predicted with some wind, so that could create issues with both*passing games.* Total seems a bit high at 47.5 -- so the UNDER is definitely worth a look.* First game produced a 16-10 final score.* In a rematch that could be for the division title, I'm expecting a game played closer to the vest by both coaches.* Watch the weather and if 47 starts popping up, move fast and grab the 47.5.* This will be a game-time decision for me, barring some breaking weather news.
TEN at SFO -- Seems strange to see a 3-10 team*favored over a playoff contender, but 49ers do look like a completely different unit with QB Garopollo as the starter (now 2-0 both SU and ATS).* Watching game at Houston last week, 49ers played smart tough football and are clearly a team headed in the right direction.* Meanwhile, hard to figure out what's going on with Tennessee, which is perhaps the biggest Jekyll-Hyde team in the league.* They could lose each of the next three and finish at 8-8 (JAX and LAR are slated as*the final two games), so this game is absolutely critical to have any shot at making the playoffs.* That added motivation, especially coming off an embarrassing loss, would lead me to take the Titans normally, especially getting points.* But Tennessee offense looked horrific in Arizona last week and I'm not convinced this is a unit that can fix its problems in a second straight road game.* Lean to Titans here, but I'm not touching the game with my money.
ATL at TB -- I'd be very wary of laying -6 with Falcons here.* This could be a repeat upset of the caliber we saw last week when Miami shocked New England.* Home dog has nothing to play for, so this game becomes their Super Bowl (it's happened last few weeks -- Cincy and Miami both covered as big dogs against the superior division rival).* Looks like a possible repeat here.* Atlanta will be focused on two huge games which are upcoming -- versus New Orleans and Carolina.* This is a game they could even afford to lose, assuming Falcons can run the table in the last two.* So, I'm not sure Atlanta comes with a full force here or shows much, not on a short week with the Saints on deck.* I may play this on game night, especially if line hits +6.5.* At +7 this is an automatic play.* Atlanta laying anything close to this number is the most square bet on the board this week.* Strong advice to either take the dog or stay off the game completely.*
MY WAGERS:
Teaser:* Philadelphia -1 / Minnesota -4.5 (Risking $330 to win $300) -- ties lose
Arizona +4 (-115) vs. Washington (Risking $245 to win $200)
First Half:* Arizona +3 (-120) vs. Washington (Risking $240 to win $200)
New England -3 vs. Pittsburgh (Risking $220 to win $200)
Dallas / Oakland UNDER 46 (Risking $220 to win $200)
Good luck!