- Dec 9, 2017
- 41
- 29
- 18
Note: Based on lines from Wednesday (posted to Pointspreads.ca) -- some lines/odds may have changed.
MIAMI DOLPHINS at BALTIMORE RAVENS
Dolphins +3.5 (-110) O 44.5 (-110) +150
Ravens -3.5 (-110) U 44.5 (-110) -185
Analysis: Both teams are coming off strong performances and relatively easy wins last week. In fact, both were equally impressive. However, I’m inclined to take the points with Miami. One reason is their quality of competition. Miami defeated the better team (NWE) with the stronger QB. Meanwhile, Baltimore playing against a NYJ team quarterbacked by J. Flacco basically amounts to getting a bye week. I’m going with the team that showed more in its opener and beat a better team. That’s the Dolphins. / One concern: Miami has some injury worries, as three offensive tackles were limited in practice this week, and A. Jackson sat out with an ankle injury. However, it’s the Ravens’ injuries that are a much bigger concern and a reason to like Miami plus the points here. Bad news for the Ravens — Baltimore lost two starters due to *season-ending* injuries in Week 1. CB K. Fuller tore an ACL, while LT J. James suffered an Achilles injury. If M. Peters remains sidelined, Baltimore could possibly miss *both* starting cornerbacks. That means Miami WRs T. Hill and J. Waddle could enjoy big days. / These two teams played each other last November. Miami won handily 22-10 and kept QB L. Jackson in check with 4 sacks and just 39 rushing yards. This game should be closer and could end on a late FG. Hence, taking +3.5 appears to have some added value if you share the opinion these two teams match up approximately equal in talent.
My Pick: Miami +3.5 (-110)
NEW YORK JETS at CLEVELAND BROWNS
Jets +6 (-110) O 40.5 (-110) +200
Browns -6 (-110) U 40.5 (-110) -250
Analysis: Here’s one of the RTTM situations which was discussed earlier. Bet on the team that lost and was embarrassed last week and bet against the team that was victorious. This means taking the NY Jets plus the points versus the Browns. KEY TREND: Since 2012, every NFL team that lost by 10+ points in Week 1 is 36-21-1 (61 percent winners) in Week 2. ANOTHER KEY TREND: Since 2010, NFL teams that lost in Week 1 were 57-40-1 ATS (59 percent winners) when facing a team that won in Week 1. / That said, betting on this long-suffering team right now requires a huge leap of faith, especially since head coach Saleh announced QB Flacco will be his starter again. I won’t get into the NYJ quarterbacking mess, but it’s painful to smell the Jets right now and inhale. That’s why Cleveland is laying nearly a TD this week. But is that enough points? / Cleveland pulled out a late win last week on a long FG (I loved the Browns as a dog in that contest). QB J. Brissett did just enough to win with his arm, but it was the duel RB threat of N. Chubb and K. Hunt that racked up 200+ yards on the ground and absolutely dominated the time of possession (32:00-18/;00). If the Browns running game does anything similar here vs. NYJ, they should win easily and cover the number. / A scary stat: The Jets were just 2 of 14 on 3rd down against Baltimore last week. No team is going to win unless it converts third downs at a significantly higher percentage. / As for the pick(s) this looks like a low-scoring game, and the total reflects that outlook. The total is 40 and even as low as 39.5 in some spots. I’m inclined to go OVER this number because any game totaled in the 30s in today’s pass-happy NFL is a real anomaly. The NYJ also attempted 59 passes last week, and stats like that typically help games go OVER. If I can find a 39.5, I’ll bet it. Otherwise, it’s a pass. / The wager I will make is NYJ +3.5 in the first half. We’re taking advantage of the RTTM angle, and getting a little extra with the half point. Low-scoring games (based on the total) also tend to be good for dogs getting points. If Cleveland does run away with the game, it probably happens in the second half when the rushing attack simply wears down the Jets. In the first few quarters, however, I’ll look for the Jets to come in with some fight and keep this one close until halftime.
My Pick: NY Jets +3.5 (first half)
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS at DETROIT LIONS
Commanders +1.5 (-110) O 49.5 (-110) +110
Lions -1.5 (-110) U 49.5 (-110) -135
Analysis: I love Detroit in this game. The same RTTM applies (see above). The Lions played tough but lost (to a very good Philadelphia team). Washington struggled at home and required some late heroics to pull out a victory against lowly Jacksonville. So, we have a winning team playing a losing team, but Detroit actually looked better, at least on offense. / Here’s a surprising fact: The Lions are favored by -2.5 points this week, which is the first time they have been a favorite in their last 25 games, dating way back to Week 11, 2020. Expect the improving Lions to rise to the occasion. What I really liked from Detroit was the running game (181 yards LW, despite playing from behind much of the game). Detroit has also become well known under head coach D. Campbell for covering pointspreads, though not for winning games. Detroit went just 3-13-1 last season, yet posted an 11-6 mark against the spread. With last week’s results, that’s now 12-6 ATS under Campbell since last season. I say Detroit sees a winnable game here on their schedule, draws a favorable spot with being home a second straight week, arrives with some confidence after playing the Eagles tough, and gets the win and cover vs. Washington. I’ll add some money to the OVER, as well. Lions’ games can quickly turn into shootouts, and this one has points written all over it.
My Picks:
Detroit -1.5 (-110)
Washington-Detroit OVER 23.5 (first half)
Washington-Detroit OVER 49.5 (-110)
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Colts -4 (-110) O 46.5 (-110) -200
Jaguars +4 (-110) U 46.5 (-110) +165
Analysis: Both teams come into Week [NODE="2"]Forum[/NODE] after stinging disappointments in Week [NODE="1"]Home[/NODE] However, the Jaguars likely have the better mindset at the moment. There was nothing to be ashamed about in losing the road opener on a late TD (to Washington). Jacksonville should continue to improve and will win some games this season. They may have found the perfect opponent here since the Jags have dominated this series lately. In fact, the Colts haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014 and lost here last year in the final week of the season to cost them a playoff spot. That’s seven straight losses at JAX. Indy is also playing consecutive road games, always a challenge in the NFL. / As for Indianapolis, the tie at Houston was a humiliation for a team expected to contend for the AFC South title and perhaps even go further. New vet QB M. Ryan started off slowly, but ended up with good stats, mostly generated in a furious panic mode in the 4th quarter. I agree with oddsmakers that the Colts still deserve to be favored, but not by -4 points. Didn’t anyone watch the Colts’ performance last week as -8.5 faves? One could argue the Colts may play better this week, having heard some criticism about the tie against the Texans. Nevertheless, I see Jacksonville as the team that could surprise, particularly versus an opponent that for some reason always plays poorly at JAX. / An intangible: The Colts cut their kicker last week, so have a new unproven player attempting FGs.
My Picks: Jacksonville (-110)
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Buccaneers -2.5 (-110) O 44.5 (-110) -155
Saints +2.5 (-110) U 44.5 (-110) +130
Analysis: The Bucs are playing consecutive road games following a Sunday night game, which is always tough. Strangely enough, over the last three seasons, NFL teams that started the season with back/back road games went 7-1 ATS in their Week 2 contests. However, Tampa Bay is also banged up in a big way. Those injuries will keep me off of Tampa and lead me to bet on the Saints instead, especially as a home dog. / It’s a bit surprising to learn the Bucs haven’t played well versus New Orleans, even with T. Brady’s many successes. New Orleans has dominated this matchup over the years and hasn’t lost to Tampa Bay during the regular season since Week 1, way back in 2018. Although both teams won last week, New Orleans has to feel a bit disrespected by this line. It’s rare to see the Saints as a home dog in the Superdome. / Admittedly, New Orleans is an unpredictable team and we never know which J. Winston will show up at QB. But I’m expecting the NOR defense to step up after a disappointing effort in Atlanta last week when this unit (reportedly one of the NFL’s best) surrendered 200+ rushing yards to the miserable Falcons. Tampa Bay has serious injury concerns this week, including WR M. Evans who is questionable. That will make things easier for New Orleans to focus elsewhere and continue making T. Brady feel unwelcome in New Orleans. / The bottom line is — I’ll take the Saints getting points — both for the first half and the full game — in an opportunity for the new coach and offense with Winston at QB to make a statement against their division rival. You can’t go wrong taking division home dogs, usually. So that’s another tipping point in the Saints’ favor.
My Picks:
New Orleans +1 (first half)
New Orleans +2.5 (-110)
CINCINNATI BENGALS at DALLAS COWBOYS
Bengals -7 (-110) O 42 (-110)
Cowboys +7 (-110) U 42 (-110)
Analysis: The big news for this matchup is Dallas QB D. Prescott being sidelined with an injury (out 6-8 weeks). That puts an inept backup QB named Cooper Rush into the crossfire, which is the main reason why the Cowboys are an uncharacteristic +7 home underdog. Frankly, there’s little that’s positive to take away from either team’s performance in last week’s opener. But Dallas looked far worse overall, even when they were healthy. Now, they’re not. The Cowboys couldn’t move the ball either on the ground or through the air. The offense is likely to continue performing poorly with so many problems along its offensive line, which has usually been Dallas’ strength. The lack of wideouts is also problematic for Dallas. And forget about overpaid money pit E. Elliott, who has morphed into a very average running back and has never matched the production of his rookie season. There’s utterly nothing to like about the Cowboys right now, which makes them impossible as a betting option and it isn’t just a backup quarterback getting the start. It’s more the mess of an offensive line working with replacements and unproven skill positions that were iffy before Prescott left with an injury. / But wait. Before we jump on the Cincinnati bandwagon, the cats aren’t much better as an inspiration of betting confidence. The Bengals’ offensive line was horrid last week against Pittsburgh, and the lack of pass protection showed as the offense committed multiple turnovers. If Dallas is to have any shot at winning here, the silver and blue defense must continue this pressure and force the Bengals into making mistakes. I do think that’s possible, but I’m not confident enough to bet on it. The UNDER is tempting (42 seems high), but something also tells me the Bengals could roll up the score and rout the Cowboys if they can somehow patch up their OL issues. This is an ideal spot for Cincy–they played possibly their worst game imaginable (five turnovers) last week and were still within striking distance of the win, so they should improve significantly on that result against a hobbled, poorly-coached opponent. / Gut instinct: Everyone in the world seems to be on Cincy, and that scares me. Maybe I'm leaving money on the table here, but my conclusion is — this game is a pass.
My Pick: No Action
CAROLINA PANTHERS at NEW YORK GIANTS
Panthers +1.5 (-110) O 44.5 (-110) +115
Giants -1.5 (-110) U 44.5 (-110) -130
Analysis: Here’s a tale of two teams with very different outcomes last week. It seemed that everyone was sky-high on Carolina in what was QB B. Mayfield’s big “revenge” game, but then the Panthers looked putrid for 45 minutes at home hosting the Browns with a backup QB. Carolina still had a chance to win late, but ended up losing a heartbreaker. The NY Giants, meanwhile, experienced the complete opposite scenario and emotional roller coaster. The Giants weren’t expected to go into Tennessee and roar back from the dead, ultimately winning a 21-20 thriller. It wasn’t just the “W” that mattered, it was the way the victory happened with head coach Brian Daboll showing supreme confidence in his offense and calling for a last-second 2-point conversion attempt to win, rather than kick the PAT for the tie. I think that carries over here in a big way. / One key advantage for NYG could be the Giants’ rushing attack. The Panthers got gashed on the ground last week, giving up 200+ rushing yards to Cleveland. Also in Week 1–no team put up more rushing yards than these Giants. I’ve been a critic of S. Barkley (164 rushing yards LW) in recent seasons, but if he’s the focal point of the offense, New York should win and cover this low number. Yes, the team that wins the rushing battle will likely win the game — and C. Mccaffrey (10 carries for 34 yards last week) hasn’t shown he’s back to form after an injury. / Perhaps the more compelling trend that applies to this game is Carolina’s dismal track record. They’ve now lost 8 straight games and failed to cover in all 8 going back to last season. I don’t know how anyone could back a team that’s lost 8 straight and is getting less than a FG in the spread, especially versus an inspired opponent. Last week, I said I’d never bet the Giants so long as QB D. Jones is starting. I have to break that pledge this week, and also go against the trends that suggest playing the losing team from Week 1 when playing against a winning team.
My Pick: New York Giants -1.5 (-110)
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Patriots -1 (+100) O40.5 (-110) -120
Steelers +1 (-120) U40.5 (-110) -100
Analysis: This line looks very strange, doesn’t it? Shouldn’t Pittsburgh be favored? Especially at home? Especially against a team that looked really bad last week? New England got bitch slapped in Miami, where they never seem to play well. What was most concerning, however, was the poor performance of the Patriots’ offense. One would think QB M. Jones will continue improving after a pretty solid debut rookie season. But he backslid badly in the opener. This all leads some handicappers to expect head coach B. Belichick will do something magical to have his team ready for a significant rebound in Week 2. / The Patriots are playing consecutive road games after a terrible showing. Earlier, I noted that over the last three seasons, teams that started the season with back-to-back road games are 7-1 ATS in Week 2. / I also mentioned the trends on playing teams coming off a Week 1 loss versus teams off a win. That applies strongly to the Patriots this week (though the line does bother me). / After upsetting the Bengals in a surprise, the Steelers are playing their home opener. But Pittsburgh will be without T.J. Watt, which is a huge loss. The defensive dynamics completely change based on this news. For this reason, the line probably shifted a point or two, so there you go. / It’s hard to nitpick the Steelers’ win, but they were the beneficiaries of 5 turnovers. Pittsburgh should have won easily, but didn’t. If New England doesn’t hand the ball over in the same way–and there’s no reason to expect they will, especially with the best defensive player out with injury–the Steelers’ task becomes much tougher this week. Key Stat: Over the last 10 years, if you blindly wagered on every NFL team in Week 2 that had lost by 10+ points in Week 1, you would’ve gone 36-21-1 (61 percent) with those bets. Pats lost by 13 last week.
My Pick: New England Patriots -1 (even)
cont'd.
.
MIAMI DOLPHINS at BALTIMORE RAVENS
Dolphins +3.5 (-110) O 44.5 (-110) +150
Ravens -3.5 (-110) U 44.5 (-110) -185
Analysis: Both teams are coming off strong performances and relatively easy wins last week. In fact, both were equally impressive. However, I’m inclined to take the points with Miami. One reason is their quality of competition. Miami defeated the better team (NWE) with the stronger QB. Meanwhile, Baltimore playing against a NYJ team quarterbacked by J. Flacco basically amounts to getting a bye week. I’m going with the team that showed more in its opener and beat a better team. That’s the Dolphins. / One concern: Miami has some injury worries, as three offensive tackles were limited in practice this week, and A. Jackson sat out with an ankle injury. However, it’s the Ravens’ injuries that are a much bigger concern and a reason to like Miami plus the points here. Bad news for the Ravens — Baltimore lost two starters due to *season-ending* injuries in Week 1. CB K. Fuller tore an ACL, while LT J. James suffered an Achilles injury. If M. Peters remains sidelined, Baltimore could possibly miss *both* starting cornerbacks. That means Miami WRs T. Hill and J. Waddle could enjoy big days. / These two teams played each other last November. Miami won handily 22-10 and kept QB L. Jackson in check with 4 sacks and just 39 rushing yards. This game should be closer and could end on a late FG. Hence, taking +3.5 appears to have some added value if you share the opinion these two teams match up approximately equal in talent.
My Pick: Miami +3.5 (-110)
NEW YORK JETS at CLEVELAND BROWNS
Jets +6 (-110) O 40.5 (-110) +200
Browns -6 (-110) U 40.5 (-110) -250
Analysis: Here’s one of the RTTM situations which was discussed earlier. Bet on the team that lost and was embarrassed last week and bet against the team that was victorious. This means taking the NY Jets plus the points versus the Browns. KEY TREND: Since 2012, every NFL team that lost by 10+ points in Week 1 is 36-21-1 (61 percent winners) in Week 2. ANOTHER KEY TREND: Since 2010, NFL teams that lost in Week 1 were 57-40-1 ATS (59 percent winners) when facing a team that won in Week 1. / That said, betting on this long-suffering team right now requires a huge leap of faith, especially since head coach Saleh announced QB Flacco will be his starter again. I won’t get into the NYJ quarterbacking mess, but it’s painful to smell the Jets right now and inhale. That’s why Cleveland is laying nearly a TD this week. But is that enough points? / Cleveland pulled out a late win last week on a long FG (I loved the Browns as a dog in that contest). QB J. Brissett did just enough to win with his arm, but it was the duel RB threat of N. Chubb and K. Hunt that racked up 200+ yards on the ground and absolutely dominated the time of possession (32:00-18/;00). If the Browns running game does anything similar here vs. NYJ, they should win easily and cover the number. / A scary stat: The Jets were just 2 of 14 on 3rd down against Baltimore last week. No team is going to win unless it converts third downs at a significantly higher percentage. / As for the pick(s) this looks like a low-scoring game, and the total reflects that outlook. The total is 40 and even as low as 39.5 in some spots. I’m inclined to go OVER this number because any game totaled in the 30s in today’s pass-happy NFL is a real anomaly. The NYJ also attempted 59 passes last week, and stats like that typically help games go OVER. If I can find a 39.5, I’ll bet it. Otherwise, it’s a pass. / The wager I will make is NYJ +3.5 in the first half. We’re taking advantage of the RTTM angle, and getting a little extra with the half point. Low-scoring games (based on the total) also tend to be good for dogs getting points. If Cleveland does run away with the game, it probably happens in the second half when the rushing attack simply wears down the Jets. In the first few quarters, however, I’ll look for the Jets to come in with some fight and keep this one close until halftime.
My Pick: NY Jets +3.5 (first half)
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS at DETROIT LIONS
Commanders +1.5 (-110) O 49.5 (-110) +110
Lions -1.5 (-110) U 49.5 (-110) -135
Analysis: I love Detroit in this game. The same RTTM applies (see above). The Lions played tough but lost (to a very good Philadelphia team). Washington struggled at home and required some late heroics to pull out a victory against lowly Jacksonville. So, we have a winning team playing a losing team, but Detroit actually looked better, at least on offense. / Here’s a surprising fact: The Lions are favored by -2.5 points this week, which is the first time they have been a favorite in their last 25 games, dating way back to Week 11, 2020. Expect the improving Lions to rise to the occasion. What I really liked from Detroit was the running game (181 yards LW, despite playing from behind much of the game). Detroit has also become well known under head coach D. Campbell for covering pointspreads, though not for winning games. Detroit went just 3-13-1 last season, yet posted an 11-6 mark against the spread. With last week’s results, that’s now 12-6 ATS under Campbell since last season. I say Detroit sees a winnable game here on their schedule, draws a favorable spot with being home a second straight week, arrives with some confidence after playing the Eagles tough, and gets the win and cover vs. Washington. I’ll add some money to the OVER, as well. Lions’ games can quickly turn into shootouts, and this one has points written all over it.
My Picks:
Detroit -1.5 (-110)
Washington-Detroit OVER 23.5 (first half)
Washington-Detroit OVER 49.5 (-110)
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Colts -4 (-110) O 46.5 (-110) -200
Jaguars +4 (-110) U 46.5 (-110) +165
Analysis: Both teams come into Week [NODE="2"]Forum[/NODE] after stinging disappointments in Week [NODE="1"]Home[/NODE] However, the Jaguars likely have the better mindset at the moment. There was nothing to be ashamed about in losing the road opener on a late TD (to Washington). Jacksonville should continue to improve and will win some games this season. They may have found the perfect opponent here since the Jags have dominated this series lately. In fact, the Colts haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014 and lost here last year in the final week of the season to cost them a playoff spot. That’s seven straight losses at JAX. Indy is also playing consecutive road games, always a challenge in the NFL. / As for Indianapolis, the tie at Houston was a humiliation for a team expected to contend for the AFC South title and perhaps even go further. New vet QB M. Ryan started off slowly, but ended up with good stats, mostly generated in a furious panic mode in the 4th quarter. I agree with oddsmakers that the Colts still deserve to be favored, but not by -4 points. Didn’t anyone watch the Colts’ performance last week as -8.5 faves? One could argue the Colts may play better this week, having heard some criticism about the tie against the Texans. Nevertheless, I see Jacksonville as the team that could surprise, particularly versus an opponent that for some reason always plays poorly at JAX. / An intangible: The Colts cut their kicker last week, so have a new unproven player attempting FGs.
My Picks: Jacksonville (-110)
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Buccaneers -2.5 (-110) O 44.5 (-110) -155
Saints +2.5 (-110) U 44.5 (-110) +130
Analysis: The Bucs are playing consecutive road games following a Sunday night game, which is always tough. Strangely enough, over the last three seasons, NFL teams that started the season with back/back road games went 7-1 ATS in their Week 2 contests. However, Tampa Bay is also banged up in a big way. Those injuries will keep me off of Tampa and lead me to bet on the Saints instead, especially as a home dog. / It’s a bit surprising to learn the Bucs haven’t played well versus New Orleans, even with T. Brady’s many successes. New Orleans has dominated this matchup over the years and hasn’t lost to Tampa Bay during the regular season since Week 1, way back in 2018. Although both teams won last week, New Orleans has to feel a bit disrespected by this line. It’s rare to see the Saints as a home dog in the Superdome. / Admittedly, New Orleans is an unpredictable team and we never know which J. Winston will show up at QB. But I’m expecting the NOR defense to step up after a disappointing effort in Atlanta last week when this unit (reportedly one of the NFL’s best) surrendered 200+ rushing yards to the miserable Falcons. Tampa Bay has serious injury concerns this week, including WR M. Evans who is questionable. That will make things easier for New Orleans to focus elsewhere and continue making T. Brady feel unwelcome in New Orleans. / The bottom line is — I’ll take the Saints getting points — both for the first half and the full game — in an opportunity for the new coach and offense with Winston at QB to make a statement against their division rival. You can’t go wrong taking division home dogs, usually. So that’s another tipping point in the Saints’ favor.
My Picks:
New Orleans +1 (first half)
New Orleans +2.5 (-110)
CINCINNATI BENGALS at DALLAS COWBOYS
Bengals -7 (-110) O 42 (-110)
Cowboys +7 (-110) U 42 (-110)
Analysis: The big news for this matchup is Dallas QB D. Prescott being sidelined with an injury (out 6-8 weeks). That puts an inept backup QB named Cooper Rush into the crossfire, which is the main reason why the Cowboys are an uncharacteristic +7 home underdog. Frankly, there’s little that’s positive to take away from either team’s performance in last week’s opener. But Dallas looked far worse overall, even when they were healthy. Now, they’re not. The Cowboys couldn’t move the ball either on the ground or through the air. The offense is likely to continue performing poorly with so many problems along its offensive line, which has usually been Dallas’ strength. The lack of wideouts is also problematic for Dallas. And forget about overpaid money pit E. Elliott, who has morphed into a very average running back and has never matched the production of his rookie season. There’s utterly nothing to like about the Cowboys right now, which makes them impossible as a betting option and it isn’t just a backup quarterback getting the start. It’s more the mess of an offensive line working with replacements and unproven skill positions that were iffy before Prescott left with an injury. / But wait. Before we jump on the Cincinnati bandwagon, the cats aren’t much better as an inspiration of betting confidence. The Bengals’ offensive line was horrid last week against Pittsburgh, and the lack of pass protection showed as the offense committed multiple turnovers. If Dallas is to have any shot at winning here, the silver and blue defense must continue this pressure and force the Bengals into making mistakes. I do think that’s possible, but I’m not confident enough to bet on it. The UNDER is tempting (42 seems high), but something also tells me the Bengals could roll up the score and rout the Cowboys if they can somehow patch up their OL issues. This is an ideal spot for Cincy–they played possibly their worst game imaginable (five turnovers) last week and were still within striking distance of the win, so they should improve significantly on that result against a hobbled, poorly-coached opponent. / Gut instinct: Everyone in the world seems to be on Cincy, and that scares me. Maybe I'm leaving money on the table here, but my conclusion is — this game is a pass.
My Pick: No Action
CAROLINA PANTHERS at NEW YORK GIANTS
Panthers +1.5 (-110) O 44.5 (-110) +115
Giants -1.5 (-110) U 44.5 (-110) -130
Analysis: Here’s a tale of two teams with very different outcomes last week. It seemed that everyone was sky-high on Carolina in what was QB B. Mayfield’s big “revenge” game, but then the Panthers looked putrid for 45 minutes at home hosting the Browns with a backup QB. Carolina still had a chance to win late, but ended up losing a heartbreaker. The NY Giants, meanwhile, experienced the complete opposite scenario and emotional roller coaster. The Giants weren’t expected to go into Tennessee and roar back from the dead, ultimately winning a 21-20 thriller. It wasn’t just the “W” that mattered, it was the way the victory happened with head coach Brian Daboll showing supreme confidence in his offense and calling for a last-second 2-point conversion attempt to win, rather than kick the PAT for the tie. I think that carries over here in a big way. / One key advantage for NYG could be the Giants’ rushing attack. The Panthers got gashed on the ground last week, giving up 200+ rushing yards to Cleveland. Also in Week 1–no team put up more rushing yards than these Giants. I’ve been a critic of S. Barkley (164 rushing yards LW) in recent seasons, but if he’s the focal point of the offense, New York should win and cover this low number. Yes, the team that wins the rushing battle will likely win the game — and C. Mccaffrey (10 carries for 34 yards last week) hasn’t shown he’s back to form after an injury. / Perhaps the more compelling trend that applies to this game is Carolina’s dismal track record. They’ve now lost 8 straight games and failed to cover in all 8 going back to last season. I don’t know how anyone could back a team that’s lost 8 straight and is getting less than a FG in the spread, especially versus an inspired opponent. Last week, I said I’d never bet the Giants so long as QB D. Jones is starting. I have to break that pledge this week, and also go against the trends that suggest playing the losing team from Week 1 when playing against a winning team.
My Pick: New York Giants -1.5 (-110)
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Patriots -1 (+100) O40.5 (-110) -120
Steelers +1 (-120) U40.5 (-110) -100
Analysis: This line looks very strange, doesn’t it? Shouldn’t Pittsburgh be favored? Especially at home? Especially against a team that looked really bad last week? New England got bitch slapped in Miami, where they never seem to play well. What was most concerning, however, was the poor performance of the Patriots’ offense. One would think QB M. Jones will continue improving after a pretty solid debut rookie season. But he backslid badly in the opener. This all leads some handicappers to expect head coach B. Belichick will do something magical to have his team ready for a significant rebound in Week 2. / The Patriots are playing consecutive road games after a terrible showing. Earlier, I noted that over the last three seasons, teams that started the season with back-to-back road games are 7-1 ATS in Week 2. / I also mentioned the trends on playing teams coming off a Week 1 loss versus teams off a win. That applies strongly to the Patriots this week (though the line does bother me). / After upsetting the Bengals in a surprise, the Steelers are playing their home opener. But Pittsburgh will be without T.J. Watt, which is a huge loss. The defensive dynamics completely change based on this news. For this reason, the line probably shifted a point or two, so there you go. / It’s hard to nitpick the Steelers’ win, but they were the beneficiaries of 5 turnovers. Pittsburgh should have won easily, but didn’t. If New England doesn’t hand the ball over in the same way–and there’s no reason to expect they will, especially with the best defensive player out with injury–the Steelers’ task becomes much tougher this week. Key Stat: Over the last 10 years, if you blindly wagered on every NFL team in Week 2 that had lost by 10+ points in Week 1, you would’ve gone 36-21-1 (61 percent) with those bets. Pats lost by 13 last week.
My Pick: New England Patriots -1 (even)
cont'd.
.