- Dec 9, 2017
- 41
- 29
- 18
Note 1: Based on lines from Thursday evening (posted to Pointspreads.ca) -- some lines/odds may have changed.
Also See: www.nolandalla.com for full reports on Saturday (late additions, etc.)
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
Ravens -2.5 (-110) O43.5 (-110) -165
Patriots +2.5 (-110) U43.5 (-110) +135
Analysis: Two 1-1 teams face off in New England's home opener. The Ravens must be reeling after blowing a three-touchdown 4th quarter lead versus Miami last week. However, what gets lost in the Dolphins' dramatic comeback shocker is just how spectacularly Baltimore's offense played, creating a healthy balance of pass and run that's produced 62 points in their first two games. I expect the Ravens' offensive success to continue this week and be the tipping point to a win and cover here on the road. / Meanwhile, New England's offense has been lackluster, scoring just 24 points through two weeks. While the Ravens have given up plenty of yards this season--463 per game, to be exact--the majority of that damage has come through the air to two opponents playing in catch-up mode. Given the Patriots don't have much of a passing attack and QB Mac Jones isn't 100 percent (back injury), I'll gladly fade New England outscoring Baltimore. / To win, the Patriots' defense will need to come up with a big day. But after the Ravens blew a winnable game last week, I expect there will be no let-up on the relentless pressure and duel threats from Lamar Jackson (39-16 SU as an NFL starter) both as a passer and runner.
The Pick: Baltimore -2.5 (-110)
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Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Bills -5 (-115) O53 (-110) -225
Dolphins +5 (-105) U53 (-110) +180
Analysis: Two of the NFL's most hyped-up teams will kick off when the Buffalo Bills visit Miami for an early-season AFC East showdown against the Dolphins. Both teams come in at 2-0 and remain undefeated. So, something's gotta give here. The Bills rank atop virtually all power rankings at the moment, earning well-deserved frontrunner status as the "September Super Bowl" favorites. / Meanwhile, the upstart Dolphins are inching closer to entering the realm of NFL elites with each victory. Miami fields a dangerous offense loaded with confidence, right now. Miami's epic 4th-quarter comeback from a 21-point deficit against a solid Baltimore team in Week 2 could be the launching pad that Dolphins fans and bettors have long been waiting for. The challenge won't be easy this week, however. / Buffalo looks utterly unstoppable at the moment, embarrassing the LA Rams in the season opener by three touchdowns, and then destroying last year's AFC top-seed Tennessee by five touchdowns on MNF this past week. That's why the mighty Bills are road favorites. / The Bills are laying -5, down slightly from the opener at -6. So, a bit of love and money has flowed towards the underdog Dolphins. The trend to consider here is how well the Bills have played against the Dolphins in recent years. Buffalo has won seven straight games in this rivalry and those wins have come by an average of 19 points per game. While Miami is undoubtedly a better team this season than before, the problem is -- so is Buffalo. We'll take the Bills and lay -4, foreseeing the domination to continue. Buffalo has gone 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 division games. / Two more key stats: Buffalo outgained its first two opponents in yardage, 827-430. Bills also outscored its first two opponents 45-0 in the second half, so this team is doing something right at making halftime adjustments. That could be a wager to consider if you can catch a low number with the Bills in the second half.
The Pick: Buffalo -5 (115)
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Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets
Bengals -5 (-110) O45.5 (-110) -225
Jets +5 (-110) U45.5 (-110) +180
Analysis: Cincinnati once again is proving the power of the Super Bowl letdown factor. For decades, last year's Super Bowl loser has struggled in its following season. So far, the Bengals are winless and 0-2 ATS. Can they break out this week and get back on the winning track? A few weeks ago, playing against the NY Jets looked like an automatic win, especially for as talented a team as the Bengals. However, after last week's stunning comeback victory in Cleveland, let's not count out the Jets as a possible upset play. / Prior to the season starting, I suggested Cincinnati would be a great fade, especially given their offensive line problems. That's been the Achilles Heel of the team, as the rest of the Bengals, especially on defense, have performed pretty well. The question here is -- is the Jets' defense good enough to take advantage of holes in the Bengals line? I don't think so. NYJ has surrendered 7 TDs in two games and doesn't force turnovers. This unit is also one of the worst on 3rd down -- Jets' opponents have converted 13-25 third-down plays. / Typically, I shy away from laying points on the road, but the Jets have never enjoyed much of a HFA. I think Cincinnati puts things together this week. Let's also keep in mind the Bengals lost their first two games, both on FG on the final play. Not that the Bengals can dictate the last quarter, but if Cincy gets out in front, I expect they keep pressing the gas. / Historically, 0-2 teams perform well across the board as winless teams have gone 55-40-1 ATS (58 percent covers) in Week 3. If we toss out winless underdogs in this situation (Cincy is favored here), which are often some really bad teams, in that same timeframe teams starting the season 0-2 both SU and against-the-spread are 37-23 ATS (62 percent covers) in Week 3. The Bengals also do well in this situation under Zac Taylor. Last two years, Cincy is 11-6 ATS coming off a loss.
The Pick: Cincinnati -5 (-110)
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New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
Saints -3 (-105) O40.5 (-110) -160
Panthers +3 (-115) U40.5 (-110) +130
Analysis: I'm leaning strongly toward the home underdog here, which is more of a "bet-against" situation with the Saints. Anyone who's watched this lousy offense the first two games sees a unit in disarray, with little confidence inside the huddle led by the interception machine Jameis Winston (34-45 as an NFL starter). Last week's home loss to Tampa Bay was a perfect example of a one-legged team with a solid defense but some major question marks on the offensive side of the ball (and coaching on the sidelines). Aside from 10 minutes in the 4th quarter at Atlanta, New Orleans has done nothing in 7 other quarters. / Saints are just 8/26 on 3rd down conversions so far this season, one of the NFL's lowest percentages. After playing two dome games on carpet, heading outside onto grass probably doesn't help either. / I faded Carolina and each of its first two games (winning both bets), and now it's time to jump on the other side. The Panthers played both games tough, losing by a combined total of just 5 points. Back home versus a division rival that's struggling, the Panthers likely see a winnable game here. Getting +3 is icing on the cake. / Saints have impressive trends favoring them on the road, especially as an underdog. But let's not be fooled by numbers from the Sean Payton and Drew Brees era. This is a different team now. / I normally would stay away from any team that's lost eight straight games (Carolina), but we have to credit them for playing close games in the first two weeks and as a live dog ready to get its first win. We also have the "bet the 0-2 teams" angle one our side [55-40-1 ATS (58 percent covers) since 2010]. / Key Trend: Underdogs during games with totals lower than 42 are 89-55-4 ATS (60 percent covers) since 2018. And underdogs in games with low totals do especially well over the season’s first eight weeks. During the first eight games of the regular season, these underdogs are a staggering 43-22-1 ATS (66 percent covers).
The Pick: Carolina +3 (-115)
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Las Vegas Raiders at Tennessee Titans
Raiders -2.5 (-110) O46.5 (-110) –140
Titans +2.5(-110) U46.5 (-110) +115
Analysis: Speaking of 0-2 teams, here's a couple of stinkers. But the Raiders have looked so much better than the Titans (a 5-point loss to the Chargers, and an OT loss to the Cardinals), which makes them a very compelling wager. Tennessee got destroyed in a no-show on MNF, and now returns home on a short week to face another above-average offense that will challenge the Titans' defense all over the field. But it's the one-dimensional Tennessee offense that's about as exciting as a dead car battery. Tennessee ranks 25th in yards per play, 26th in yardage, and 28th in scoring. RB Derrick Henry looks to be going through the motions (I've written about this in every report since their playoff loss last season). Who would have guessed the Titans running game would be averaging 3.3 yards per carry (ranking 30th in the NFL). / Tennessee should improve this week versus a vulnerable Las Vegas defense, but the Raiders' offensive weapons should make the difference and get coach Josh McDaniels his first career win. / Titans have been outscored 62-14 since halftime of their first game. Titans have converted only 7/23 third-down plays. Titans have been outgained 808-546 in two games.
The Pick: Las Vegas -2.5 (-110)
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Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts
Chiefs -6 (-120) O49.5 (-110) -275
Colts +6 (+100) U49.5 (-110) +220
Analysis: Betting against Kansas City right now may be stepping in front of a roaring freight train. I might go splat, but I think the stars line up for a Kansas City letdown combined with Indianapolis finally rising to its potential following two horrible games against sub-par teams. The home opener helps the Colts, too. / There's nothing statistically-speaking to inspire confidence in the Colts. Most everything on their chart looks ugly. But let's also agree this is a well-coached team that's far better than they've shown, so far. Coming off a shutout loss and facing one of the NFL's best teams this week is sometimes the perfect recipe for an upset. Combine this with Kansas City coming off a huge home win versus the Chargers, which turned on a defensive TD, and the Chiefs could be a little flat. / Indy is 8-4-1 ATS in the last 13 games coming off a loss under coach Frank Reich. The NFL can be tough to predict, but we often see games like this where the outcome won't make any sense. The better team simply has a bad day, and loses. I'm counting on an all-out effort by Indy this week, and even if they don't get the win, it should be close enough to get the cover.
The Pick: Indianapolis +6 (-110)
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Houston Texans at Chicago Bears
Texans +2.5 (-105) O40.5 (-110) +120
Bears -2.5 (-115) U40.5 (-110) -145
Analysis: Let's credit the underrated Texans (2-0 ATS) for being one of the best defenses in the NFL, at least through 3 quarters. They led the Colts 20-3 at end of the 3rd frame, and also led the Broncos 9-6. So, this unit is coming into games very well-prepared. Now, facing a soft-as-butter Bears O unit that is coming off a road loss to rival Green Bay, Houston should be in this game provided they maintain that same intensity. / I'd sure love to catch +3 on the game line, but since I can't find that, instead will back the Texans in the first half, getting +1.5. Houston has covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 10 games -- obviously including both this season. I'll also gladly fade the ineffective Chicago offense, which has dismal stats in almost every category. Chicago has gained just 204 and 228 yards respectively in their first two games (vs. opponents 745 combined yards). But the key stat I'm looking at is the Bears having been outscored 31-7 in the first half this season. Give me Houston plus the points here, which even with an inept offense should keep this one close through halftime.
The Pick: Houston +1.5 [first half] (-115)
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cont'd.
Also See: www.nolandalla.com for full reports on Saturday (late additions, etc.)
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
Ravens -2.5 (-110) O43.5 (-110) -165
Patriots +2.5 (-110) U43.5 (-110) +135
Analysis: Two 1-1 teams face off in New England's home opener. The Ravens must be reeling after blowing a three-touchdown 4th quarter lead versus Miami last week. However, what gets lost in the Dolphins' dramatic comeback shocker is just how spectacularly Baltimore's offense played, creating a healthy balance of pass and run that's produced 62 points in their first two games. I expect the Ravens' offensive success to continue this week and be the tipping point to a win and cover here on the road. / Meanwhile, New England's offense has been lackluster, scoring just 24 points through two weeks. While the Ravens have given up plenty of yards this season--463 per game, to be exact--the majority of that damage has come through the air to two opponents playing in catch-up mode. Given the Patriots don't have much of a passing attack and QB Mac Jones isn't 100 percent (back injury), I'll gladly fade New England outscoring Baltimore. / To win, the Patriots' defense will need to come up with a big day. But after the Ravens blew a winnable game last week, I expect there will be no let-up on the relentless pressure and duel threats from Lamar Jackson (39-16 SU as an NFL starter) both as a passer and runner.
The Pick: Baltimore -2.5 (-110)
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Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Bills -5 (-115) O53 (-110) -225
Dolphins +5 (-105) U53 (-110) +180
Analysis: Two of the NFL's most hyped-up teams will kick off when the Buffalo Bills visit Miami for an early-season AFC East showdown against the Dolphins. Both teams come in at 2-0 and remain undefeated. So, something's gotta give here. The Bills rank atop virtually all power rankings at the moment, earning well-deserved frontrunner status as the "September Super Bowl" favorites. / Meanwhile, the upstart Dolphins are inching closer to entering the realm of NFL elites with each victory. Miami fields a dangerous offense loaded with confidence, right now. Miami's epic 4th-quarter comeback from a 21-point deficit against a solid Baltimore team in Week 2 could be the launching pad that Dolphins fans and bettors have long been waiting for. The challenge won't be easy this week, however. / Buffalo looks utterly unstoppable at the moment, embarrassing the LA Rams in the season opener by three touchdowns, and then destroying last year's AFC top-seed Tennessee by five touchdowns on MNF this past week. That's why the mighty Bills are road favorites. / The Bills are laying -5, down slightly from the opener at -6. So, a bit of love and money has flowed towards the underdog Dolphins. The trend to consider here is how well the Bills have played against the Dolphins in recent years. Buffalo has won seven straight games in this rivalry and those wins have come by an average of 19 points per game. While Miami is undoubtedly a better team this season than before, the problem is -- so is Buffalo. We'll take the Bills and lay -4, foreseeing the domination to continue. Buffalo has gone 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 division games. / Two more key stats: Buffalo outgained its first two opponents in yardage, 827-430. Bills also outscored its first two opponents 45-0 in the second half, so this team is doing something right at making halftime adjustments. That could be a wager to consider if you can catch a low number with the Bills in the second half.
The Pick: Buffalo -5 (115)
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Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets
Bengals -5 (-110) O45.5 (-110) -225
Jets +5 (-110) U45.5 (-110) +180
Analysis: Cincinnati once again is proving the power of the Super Bowl letdown factor. For decades, last year's Super Bowl loser has struggled in its following season. So far, the Bengals are winless and 0-2 ATS. Can they break out this week and get back on the winning track? A few weeks ago, playing against the NY Jets looked like an automatic win, especially for as talented a team as the Bengals. However, after last week's stunning comeback victory in Cleveland, let's not count out the Jets as a possible upset play. / Prior to the season starting, I suggested Cincinnati would be a great fade, especially given their offensive line problems. That's been the Achilles Heel of the team, as the rest of the Bengals, especially on defense, have performed pretty well. The question here is -- is the Jets' defense good enough to take advantage of holes in the Bengals line? I don't think so. NYJ has surrendered 7 TDs in two games and doesn't force turnovers. This unit is also one of the worst on 3rd down -- Jets' opponents have converted 13-25 third-down plays. / Typically, I shy away from laying points on the road, but the Jets have never enjoyed much of a HFA. I think Cincinnati puts things together this week. Let's also keep in mind the Bengals lost their first two games, both on FG on the final play. Not that the Bengals can dictate the last quarter, but if Cincy gets out in front, I expect they keep pressing the gas. / Historically, 0-2 teams perform well across the board as winless teams have gone 55-40-1 ATS (58 percent covers) in Week 3. If we toss out winless underdogs in this situation (Cincy is favored here), which are often some really bad teams, in that same timeframe teams starting the season 0-2 both SU and against-the-spread are 37-23 ATS (62 percent covers) in Week 3. The Bengals also do well in this situation under Zac Taylor. Last two years, Cincy is 11-6 ATS coming off a loss.
The Pick: Cincinnati -5 (-110)
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New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
Saints -3 (-105) O40.5 (-110) -160
Panthers +3 (-115) U40.5 (-110) +130
Analysis: I'm leaning strongly toward the home underdog here, which is more of a "bet-against" situation with the Saints. Anyone who's watched this lousy offense the first two games sees a unit in disarray, with little confidence inside the huddle led by the interception machine Jameis Winston (34-45 as an NFL starter). Last week's home loss to Tampa Bay was a perfect example of a one-legged team with a solid defense but some major question marks on the offensive side of the ball (and coaching on the sidelines). Aside from 10 minutes in the 4th quarter at Atlanta, New Orleans has done nothing in 7 other quarters. / Saints are just 8/26 on 3rd down conversions so far this season, one of the NFL's lowest percentages. After playing two dome games on carpet, heading outside onto grass probably doesn't help either. / I faded Carolina and each of its first two games (winning both bets), and now it's time to jump on the other side. The Panthers played both games tough, losing by a combined total of just 5 points. Back home versus a division rival that's struggling, the Panthers likely see a winnable game here. Getting +3 is icing on the cake. / Saints have impressive trends favoring them on the road, especially as an underdog. But let's not be fooled by numbers from the Sean Payton and Drew Brees era. This is a different team now. / I normally would stay away from any team that's lost eight straight games (Carolina), but we have to credit them for playing close games in the first two weeks and as a live dog ready to get its first win. We also have the "bet the 0-2 teams" angle one our side [55-40-1 ATS (58 percent covers) since 2010]. / Key Trend: Underdogs during games with totals lower than 42 are 89-55-4 ATS (60 percent covers) since 2018. And underdogs in games with low totals do especially well over the season’s first eight weeks. During the first eight games of the regular season, these underdogs are a staggering 43-22-1 ATS (66 percent covers).
The Pick: Carolina +3 (-115)
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Las Vegas Raiders at Tennessee Titans
Raiders -2.5 (-110) O46.5 (-110) –140
Titans +2.5(-110) U46.5 (-110) +115
Analysis: Speaking of 0-2 teams, here's a couple of stinkers. But the Raiders have looked so much better than the Titans (a 5-point loss to the Chargers, and an OT loss to the Cardinals), which makes them a very compelling wager. Tennessee got destroyed in a no-show on MNF, and now returns home on a short week to face another above-average offense that will challenge the Titans' defense all over the field. But it's the one-dimensional Tennessee offense that's about as exciting as a dead car battery. Tennessee ranks 25th in yards per play, 26th in yardage, and 28th in scoring. RB Derrick Henry looks to be going through the motions (I've written about this in every report since their playoff loss last season). Who would have guessed the Titans running game would be averaging 3.3 yards per carry (ranking 30th in the NFL). / Tennessee should improve this week versus a vulnerable Las Vegas defense, but the Raiders' offensive weapons should make the difference and get coach Josh McDaniels his first career win. / Titans have been outscored 62-14 since halftime of their first game. Titans have converted only 7/23 third-down plays. Titans have been outgained 808-546 in two games.
The Pick: Las Vegas -2.5 (-110)
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Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts
Chiefs -6 (-120) O49.5 (-110) -275
Colts +6 (+100) U49.5 (-110) +220
Analysis: Betting against Kansas City right now may be stepping in front of a roaring freight train. I might go splat, but I think the stars line up for a Kansas City letdown combined with Indianapolis finally rising to its potential following two horrible games against sub-par teams. The home opener helps the Colts, too. / There's nothing statistically-speaking to inspire confidence in the Colts. Most everything on their chart looks ugly. But let's also agree this is a well-coached team that's far better than they've shown, so far. Coming off a shutout loss and facing one of the NFL's best teams this week is sometimes the perfect recipe for an upset. Combine this with Kansas City coming off a huge home win versus the Chargers, which turned on a defensive TD, and the Chiefs could be a little flat. / Indy is 8-4-1 ATS in the last 13 games coming off a loss under coach Frank Reich. The NFL can be tough to predict, but we often see games like this where the outcome won't make any sense. The better team simply has a bad day, and loses. I'm counting on an all-out effort by Indy this week, and even if they don't get the win, it should be close enough to get the cover.
The Pick: Indianapolis +6 (-110)
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Houston Texans at Chicago Bears
Texans +2.5 (-105) O40.5 (-110) +120
Bears -2.5 (-115) U40.5 (-110) -145
Analysis: Let's credit the underrated Texans (2-0 ATS) for being one of the best defenses in the NFL, at least through 3 quarters. They led the Colts 20-3 at end of the 3rd frame, and also led the Broncos 9-6. So, this unit is coming into games very well-prepared. Now, facing a soft-as-butter Bears O unit that is coming off a road loss to rival Green Bay, Houston should be in this game provided they maintain that same intensity. / I'd sure love to catch +3 on the game line, but since I can't find that, instead will back the Texans in the first half, getting +1.5. Houston has covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 10 games -- obviously including both this season. I'll also gladly fade the ineffective Chicago offense, which has dismal stats in almost every category. Chicago has gained just 204 and 228 yards respectively in their first two games (vs. opponents 745 combined yards). But the key stat I'm looking at is the Bears having been outscored 31-7 in the first half this season. Give me Houston plus the points here, which even with an inept offense should keep this one close through halftime.
The Pick: Houston +1.5 [first half] (-115)
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cont'd.
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