Preview & outright plays
The first Major of the year and once again it is widely expected to be a two-horse race between Karrie Webb and Annika Sorenstam. So far this year, Sorenstam has won every one of these matches and in the process has not finished lower than 2nd in any tournament and shot 59 last week to become the first person to do so on the LPGA Tour. Webb has some catching up to do this week and it is rather unfortunate that such an important event should coincide with the TPC which will dominate the media coverage yet again.
This will be the 30th Nabisco Championship, and since its inception in 1972 the tournament has been played on the Dinah Shore Tournament Course at Mission Hills Country Club in Rancho Mirage, Calif. The tournament holds the LPGA title for having the greatest longevity on the same course, and it's the third oldest on the LPGA Tour behind the U.S. Women's Open and the McDonald's LPGA Championship. The course was stretched to over 6,500 yards last year to make it the longest course in the history of the LPGA Majors, but this has not particularly been an event for long-hitters, rather players with good greens in regulation and putting stats. Befitting of any Major, it is the ball-strikers and not the power-players who play well here. The other common feature of past champions here is that they have all been seasoned veterans, again befitting of a Major championship.?
As far as the slug-out between Webb and Sorenstam is concerned, my play is on Sorenstam. Webb started the season with a new caddie and it has been a difficult process for her. She has won only once,in her native Australia, and while she can boast a string of top-10 finishes, she has not been consistently contending. This will be her 4th straight tournament, spanning two continents, and she admits on the LPGA.com site that she is tired. "I think that the effects of the last two years have caught up with me and after this week I am going to take the next five weeks off. I think that my body, both physically and mentally, is just very run down." By this stage last year she had played three less tournaments and "was already on quite a roll coming into the first major". She won by ten shots and dominated the event, but this year has been very different so far.
Sorenstam is commonly cited to not have a great record here, having finished no higher than 7th in six attempts, yet here scoring average is the 3rd best of the field in that time (71.71). Only Webb (70.60, 20 rounds) and Pepper (71.64, 52 rounds) are better. And then there is the "roll" that she is on and it was that roll that propelled Webb to victory last year. She tops the greens in regulation and putting average stats and is in the top-10 in both driving length and accuracy. She may not repeat the 59 of last week, but she is a much stronger candidate to pick up this Major than Webb.
The other two picks are Meg Mallon and Rosie Jones. If Sorenstam has the 3rd best long-term scoring average on this course, she is closely followed by Mallon (71.81, 42 rounds) and with a finishes of 2nd and 3rd in the last two years here it is clear that is not just form of years gone by. She is now selective in the events that she plays and warmed up for this event last week after a seven-week break with a 17th place finish last week with the scores improving each round. Focused for this event and with the course she has, she could certainly secure another place finish.
The third pick, Rosie Jones, is very much in the same vein. A consistent performer on this course, she has also been selective in the events that she has played this year and finished strongly for a 7th place finish last week. Also focused for this event, she could challenge for a place finish much more strongly than her current odds suggest.
Outright plays:
Annika Sorenstam to win 4/1 @
William Hill
Meg Mallon to win 25/1 e.w. @
Surrey
Rosie Jones to win 50/1 e.w. @
William Hill [5 places options]
It was -125 one hour ago and it will rise. Webb is the defending champion, has finished 3rd & 7th the two years before, while Davies' record at the same time has been 35th, 70th and 3rd. She is in poor form, publicly contemplating retirement a couple of weeks ago and was successfully opposed with Dottie Pepper last week. She missed the cut. Get on it early!
