NASCAR - Samsung/RadioShack 500

MB MLB 728x90 Jpg

Huckleberry

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 2, 2002
296
0
0
Nevada
Race 7 out of 36
at Texas Motor Speedway - 1.5-Mile High-Banked Paved Oval Speedway - 6th Annual race at this venue.

Schedule: (All times Eastern)
Friday, April 5th
11:20AM - 1:20PM NWC Practice
3:05PM - NWC Qualifying (two laps, all positions)

Saturday, April 6th
11:15AM - 12:00PM First Winston Cup Practice - 45 Minutes
12:30AM - 1:15PM Final Winston Cup Practice - 45 Minutes

Sunday, April 7th 6:30AM
1:00PM Samsung/RadioShack 500 (FOX, 334 laps, 500 miles)

Well, after a week off, the Winston Cup boys are back. And this one should be very very interesting.
TMS repaved the track last year, and speeds should be the fastest we've seen since Atlanta reconfigured their track in 1997.

Here is a must read article concerning this race.
http://www.thatsracin.com/mld/thatsracin/2972501.htm

The early drivers to watch:
8 D. Earnhardt, Jr. - He just loves these 1? mile tracks and with his current form, he has to be the favorite.
10 J. Benson - I like his run here last year (also a 5th in "98) and he could be the driver that Jarrett was talking about in that article.
12 R. Newman - Tough to leave him out...if 97 can win a race, so can this kid, and he's always starts up front.
17 M. Kenseth - He just seems to have it all dialed in so far.
18 B. Labonte - If he plans on turning his season around, this is the place to do it. 3 3rd place finishes in first 5 races.
20 T. Stewart - All healed up and will contend for the win.
24 J. Gordon - Just keep thinking he will finally get out of his little rut....has not finished well here in the past though (besides last year's 5th)
25 J. Nadeau - Darkhorse here, but if, and it's a huge if, he stays out of trouble, he can be there at the end.
29 K. Harvick - Can't ignore his finishes at similar tracks (Atlanta and Charlotte)
40 S. Marlin - No indication that he won't contend for a win at every race.
48 J. Johnson - Another kid who is just always running up front recently.
88 D. Jarrett - See B. Labonte comments....has great success here, and if he finishes outside the top 10 this week, he might as well forget about 2002.
97 K. Busch - Can't overlook him. Winning 2 straight will be very tough, especially if Spencer is anywhere near him, but he was great at Atlanta and Las Vegas.
99 J. Burton - Been hanging around the top 10 this year at every race, so with pit strategy likely playing a huge role in this race, he could position himself for the win.

That's 14 drivers. Obviously can't bet 'em all, so we will have to cut this down to 5 or 6 based upon the odds available and what we see in the practices.

Any input and opinions?
GLTA
 

sandwedge

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 14, 2001
279
0
0
i'm hesitant to support jarrett the way things have been going this year for the ups team. maybe he really should race the truck. slight aero disadvantage but he might could at least finish a race with it.
 

Huckleberry

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 2, 2002
296
0
0
Nevada
So far:

Odds To Win -
40 Sterling Marlin 12-1 4Units
8 Dale Earnhardt Jr. 10-1 5Units (couldn't believe it when I saw this price)

Matchups:
17 Kenseth ov 1 Park -130 4Units - Park just doesn't seem to have a clue right now. He ran good at Darlington, but forced a wreck w/ Compton. See him wrecking again.
17 Kenseth ov 55 Hamilton -160 3Units - a little much to lay this early, but I see 17 in the top 10 if not battling for the win. 55 has just been horrid.

BTW - plays are spread out throughout most of the worthwhile Nascar offshore outs and in Las Vegas.
 
MB NCAAF 728x90 Jpg

djv

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 4, 2000
13,817
17
0
JR your at 10-1 is good play. I like Kenseth over Hamilton. I not sure about Park either. But I do know if he is on he is fast at this type track. Harvick and Jarrett both scare me. If Tony Stewart is back in form. He will be tough. High speed does not bother him.
Marlin is going to be better then he looked in Qlfying.
 

Myron

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 14, 2001
764
0
0
Hamilton, Ontario
Apparently the track has been redesigned and passing is tough. Therefore I wouldn't bet on anybody starting 25th or back which includes Stewart, Gordon, Harvick, Jeff Burton.

My guess is that the race will go to either to Jr, Jarrett or Rudd. Small chances to Elliot, Mayfield and Martin also. And for a longshot play, maybe Michael Waltrip.
 

djv

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 4, 2000
13,817
17
0
Anyone spot a O/U on total yellow flags/ or cautions.
5.5 would be a interesting number. Believe if I had that I would go under.
 
MB NCAAF 728x90 Jpg

Huckleberry

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 2, 2002
296
0
0
Nevada
DJV,
If you would go UN 5? cautions, I'm sure you would love to go UN 8? and get +125 (sportsbook.com) That's the best number out there that I see. Or, you can go UN 9? and lay -140 (bet365).
 

djv

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 4, 2000
13,817
17
0
Thks Huckleberry. Yes I believe under 6 so 8.5 is outstanding.
Bristol Or Martinsville where they run into each other all day would be a over. But these big tracks seem to be less then 6 most times.
 

Myron

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 14, 2001
764
0
0
Hamilton, Ontario
You guys obviously know little about Texas. The race will be a crashfest. Also before you pluck any money down consider the following. Rain is in the forecast again for tomorrow so if it rains off and on Sunday they could be constantly bringing out the yellow flag for a few drops of rain.

My guess is the race will have a lot of cautions and the speed will be very low.
 
MB NCAAF 728x90 Jpg

Stanley

Registered
Forum Member
Jul 26, 1999
11,801
26
0
Manchester, England
www.tour-tips.com
Race plays:

Benson to beat Hamilton -140 @ Intertops
Blaney to beat Hamilton -130 @ Five Dimes/Carib
Busch to beat Ward Burton -130 @ Carib
Busch to beat Newman -160 @ Five Dimes
Busch to beat Spencer -150 @ Bet365
Martin to beat Craven -140 @ Five Dimes
Elliott to beat Sadler -120 @ WSEX [2 units]
Wallace to beat Kenseth -120 @ WSEX [2 units]
Mayfield to beat Park -130 @ Intertops
 

djv

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 4, 2000
13,817
17
0
Myron of course with rain in the forcast will make no O/U play. I would have taken under 8.5 if not for that. We should all watch out for the track will be green as hell from all the rain last night.
A few of the boys in back with great pit stops will work toward the front. For sure if they have 6 or more stops. Guys like Tony and Gordon can move up 4/5 spots every pit stop. It's what they got left when they get there. I would not count either out of top 5 finish. Stanley look out for Park. If he has it togeather Mayfield wont cover him.
 

Huckleberry

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 2, 2002
296
0
0
Nevada
It sure doesn't look like they will run this race today guys. What a crazy weekend. No practice, constant rain, and all this on a new pavement......tough week. With that being said, I still made some plays, but focused more on matchups this week than the win index.

To Win:
40 Marlin 12-1 4Units
8 Earnhardt Jr. 10-1 5Units
I would have added the Yates guys, and probably the Gibbs guys, but am just putting 9 units out there this week with all this uncertainty.
And I would have put a bomb in there w/ the 17 at 40-1.

Matchups: (first 2 were played before Q)
17 Kenseth ov 1 Park -130 4Units -
17 Kenseth ov 55 Hamilton -160 3Units -
40 Marlin ov 29 Harvick -130 5Units -
Just have to go w/ the better car at this point. 40 is always around the top 5.
22 WBurton ov 15 Waltrip +110 4Units -
Basically don't trust the 15 at all (unless there is a plate on his carburator).
1 Park ov 15 Waltrip -118 4Units -
See above. And, it's time for Park to show that he can still drive. The car is good.
YATES (28 and 88) ov EVERNHAM (9 and 19) -150 (3Units) -
Big price here, but I don't see either Elliott or Mayfield getting a top 5, and I believe 88 or 28 will.
43 Andretti ov 31 RGordon -110 4Units -
Robby Gordon in a matchup on a fast track. Need I say more?

See you in victory lane!
GLTA
 
MB NCAAF 728x90 Jpg

Huckleberry

Registered User
Forum Member
Mar 2, 2002
296
0
0
Nevada
We'll take it!

We'll take it!

Well...should have put in that "bomb" in there with the 17. And he even started at the rear of the field.

ODDS TO WIN:
0-2 -9 Units

MATCHUPS:
6-1 +19 Units

Weekly Total:
+10 Units

Let's go get 'em at Martinsville. Big race weekend w/ F1 and Cart.

:D
 

djv

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 4, 2000
13,817
17
0
Nice picking guys. I sat on the side this weekend. Not to smart of me. Well there is always this week. Boy they will be banging this week at the 1/2 mile.
 
Top