NASCAR Sonoma early thoughts/leans

[Griffin8s]

Ok, road course. It's the first of 2 for the year. I don't know how you feel about them but I find that they can be interesting. What will make this one interest and I been saying it the last 2 weeks but really hasn't made a diff. is the dbl file restart. Think of this, never have they restarted everytime side by side. If there is a car a lap down it goes to the back. So here is what I like if you have a book that bets the amount of cautions take over 4-5-6 anyday! Think of the start of this race always very tight racing and banging going on I can see this caution filled very easy. Now I wanted to jump on J.P.M. (Juan Pablo Montoya for Ax) early but so did the books. So I will let him qual bad here then jump. He has had a great few weeks here recently and that will carry over to this race. Also, as part as DEI now they always get help from Ron Fellows and Chip always gets Scott Pruett so I can bet they have been working hard on their road cars.
One thing to think about the last 2 winners here started 30th or worse. Before that if you didn't start in the top 13 forget it. Maybe due to the smaller fuel cell started a few yrs ago.
So this means we have to get going early on this race and it will take everyone's help on this one. So please post your idea's and thought's on this race if you have anything to say at all. Every week I feel that I am forgeting something so I would like people to post any thoughts I may not have thought of before.
Last note, I think matchups will work out best in this case so I expect I will be posting more of them this week. Ok, let's go!!! Road course, what U got???

 

[Turfgrass]

Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart win just about every road course race. We have seen a few drivers step up like Juan Pablo Montoya at Sonoma and Kevin Harvick at Watkins Glen, and even Robby Gordon has won a couple during the Gordon/Stewart reign, but that?s about it of late.

Whether its been fuel mileage or sequence of pitting, there are several instances of lower tiered drivers, or some of the hired assassins, being in contention for a win while beating several of the top name drivers in NASCAR. I love that part of it, simply for the reason of pure possibilities. Road course events in NASCAR are definitely a pleasant change.

Enough rambling, which is going to win? It used to be Jeff Gordon would be the short favorite followed by Tony Stewart and then a bunch of other long shot drivers just because they won all the time. This season there are about seven drivers that have a good shot of winning without having to win by just luck of the pit strategy.

Scott Pruett is the only non-Cup regular who is considered a legitimate candidate to win. Ron Fellows and Boris Said are on the next tier of drivers capable, but Pruett's car gives him the slight edge over the other two quality hired guns. He?ll have good equipment and he?ll also have an edge over most in driving skills, not to mention the track also his considered his home track.

Jeff Gordon still leads the way a co-favorite with 9 career road course Cup wins. Stewart is the other favorite with 6 career road course Cup wins, and having done so more recently than Gordon with a win at Watkins Glen. The two have mixed it several times on the roads and on one occasion, Stewart took his shot at punching the road course bully in the mouth. One road race early in Stewart?s career, he raced Gordon hard after only a couple laps and then punted him while battling for position on a straightaway. It was strong message sent and led to a changing of the guard. Gordon had won 7 road races up that point and has only 2 more road wins since. Stewart has literally taken the road course crown and title away from Gordon.

Robby Gordon has led laps in this race and finished 16th after all the late pit strategies. In 2003, Gordon swept the road course races while driving for Richard Childress. The difference over the last couple of years for Gordon and why he hasn?t been able to win since then has been equipment. He is one of the most talented drivers, and because of that, regardless of how terrible the team he owns and drives for is, he is a strong contender. In every race this season Gordon has been a huge underdog given little chance to win. For this race, he is a top contender and respected very much. That is the ultimate compliment to his skills that he can so dramatically change perception of his driving ability simply by the course. he is the perfect example of a guy that give hope to the possibilities and just how possible it is for someone in a jalopy to do well.

Juan Pablo Montoya has previously qualified very poorly at Sonoma which put him at a huge disadvantage from the start. Once practice started, Montoya unleashed his fury and showcased his skills by running the fastest lap in the final two practice sessions. He still had to come from the back and the furthest anyone had ever come back from to win at Sonoma was 13th. In 15 of the previous 16 Sonoma races, the worst start position was 7th. Montoya was starting 32nd. Impossible! Obviously not for JP who went the last 40 green flag laps conserving fuel throughout and won a smart race.

Hard to go against Jeff and Tony, but I'll go with the better odds and take Pruett, Montoya, and R. Gordon to win.


edit: Scratch Pruett he's not on the entry list.

 

[Lumi]

(Juan Pablo Montoya for Ax) ? ?

Lost on that one, JPM drives for Earnhardt/Ganasty,

Can Rainbow Boy's back hold up?

I like # 7 and maybe...... #29, has he tightened the screws to get his season back on track?

I will be at the race this week, my computer is dying, so no updates. I will see what I can manage

 

[Griffin8s]

(Juan Pablo Montoya for Ax) ? ?

Lost on that one, JPM drives for Earnhardt/Ganasty,

Can Rainbow Boy's back hold up?

I like # 7 and maybe...... #29, has he tightened the screws to get his season back on track?

Ax is a fellow capper though I have not seen him in about 2 weeks that was getting into NASCAR but doesn't know the lingo yet. In other words a poor attempt at a joke.:mj07:

As for Gordon I don't know. I mean really how bad is the back? Also, you know they are making the seats as comfortable as they can, he might feel better in the car then out of the car. Really how do we know.:shrug:

As for Robby I mean yes everyone in the world will plug him into their fantasy team this weekend but can I lay money on him to win? hmmmmm........ Just seems like something always goes wrong for him at the road courses. Only time things went right he won. But lets say he is up there fighting for the win and they pit up against Tony,Jimmy,Kyle etc. can his team pull off that fast pitstop to get him out front. Think Boris had that problem a few years ago and may have cost him the win.

Then we have Harvick. Can this team pull it together this weekend I don't know. Haven't seen anything out of him at all this years and even the crew change had no effect on their performance. But, the nice thing about the road course is it's not about aero or chasis as much as driver and mechanical grib like forward bite. So this could be what equals out his team this week.

A lot to think about in this road course game. Chime in with your thoughts!!!

 

[kegray1]

Leaning on qualify play:
Stewart(-150) over JPM.
JPM qualifyon road courses thus far @Sonoma 21 and 32. @Watkins Glen 25 and 18.

Stewart qualifies well except last year at Sonoma 39th. Prior to that 5,12,7,17,10. @Watkins Glen he has qualified 9,5,8,1,4,4.
I think JPM is better racer than quilifer on road courses becuase he sets people up and makes the pass like no other.

Not sure I will play it as juice is high to go against JPM on road course but history says Smoke qualifies better.

 

[Griffin8s]

kegray, I like that play with Tony. He is a strong road course guy (as U know) and I don't have total faith in MWR yet on coming to the track and being fast. I would probably lay the cash on Smoke if I had that matchup.

U know who pops up in this race alot but not the best finishes (without looking it up) is Jamie Mac. WHat do you think on him????:shrug:

 

[kegray1]

Yeah I looked at him as he qualifes well in road courses but he was H2H with Newman who also had a good qualify history at Sonoma.

 

[Griffin8s]

Was just reading my last post and I don't know what the f' I was talking about MWR meant to say DEI of course.:mj07: Maybe that 3rd drink was to many last night. :mj06: I didn't think it was.:mj07:

 

[Griffin8s]

Not understanding Tony's 2nd and 3rd practice speeds. Only 34th and 37th in each one. But in the 3rd prac. his avg. was 79.10 for 13 laps. Man it's still hard to not pick him for this race. Heres what I like about him, starting 4th. Why is that a big deal well a lot happens in the first lap in the first turn. Vickers will most likely pick the outside lane to start the race as that is the best place to be for the first right hand turn. That means Tony will be right behind him and could easily be in 2nd after that turn. Or Vickers and Kyle could get into it there and Tony come out smelling like a rose. But, I just don't understand practice. Maybe they stayed on old tires to get the car set for the long run and everyone else had new tires???? Thoughts? :shrug:

 

[Griffin8s]

Ok Picks

Ok Picks

To win:
Tony +450 Think he maybe better then he is showing
Kyle B +500 Can win any weekend
Martin +2000 Been awhile since win @ R C but knows how to get it done
Johnson +2500 All I will say is Chad

Dark Horse
Kahne +6000 He is starting in top 10 and great final practice got to take this value.

H2H:
Said over Fellows +100 Said can have good run if equip holds up
Johnson over Jamie Mac -105 Again Chad
Biffle over Edwards -150 Risky after Carl's win last night but has been terrible all weekend

As always good luck to all. Throw out your picks and ideas would love to hear them.

 

[kegray1]

Ready to play reluctant this week though. I am not a huge fan of gambling on road course.

TO WIN:
Montoya(7-1) for 40
Kahne(60-1) for 10
Newman(25-1) for 20
Kyle Busch(5-1) for 40
Kurt Busch(30-1) for 20

H2H:
Montoya(-130) over R. Gordon for 260 wins 200.

Parlay:
Helio over Dario
Kanaan over Patrick
Johnson over Jamie Mac
40 wins 198

 

[DeadPrez]

To Win:

Montoya +700
R. Gordon +1000
Johnson +2500
Newman +2500


Matchups:

Johnson over McMurray (-105)
Montoya over J.Gordon (-115)
Montoya over Stewart (+130)
Newman over Biffle (-120)
Newman over Johnson (-115)
Hamlin over Martin (+115)
Ragan over Reutimann (-125)
Sorenson over Labonte (+140)


gl

 

[grinin]

Johnson over Martin (-107)
Newman over Biffle (-115)
Ragan over Reutimann (-125) I pounded this one last night
Said -135 ov KKahne

Parlay: Newman ov McMurray/Martin + Hornish ov Earnhardt/Truex + Robby ov Allmendinger/Speed
+4025
$27 to win $1100

 

[grinin]

Sadler highest Dodge +600
Sadler to win +8000 I know, call me crazy

 

[kegray1]

Going to predict that late double restart will cause some serious issues and action.Might be tough to finish green if there is a caution in last 5 laps with double restart.

 

[kegray1]

I can't stand the TNT coverage. It is awful and Kyle Petty is terrible.
I didn't think he could be any worse than his driving but his announcing is even worse.

 

[kegray1]

Scott Speed. :thefinger

This better not cost Kahne the victory.

 

[kegray1]

KAHNE +600 :00hour

Also Montoya +200 over R Gordon. :00hour

+640 on the day.

 

[Griffin8s]

Just watched the finish myself (had to tape it to watch the end late. :00hour Kahne the Dark Horse pulled it out!!!! WOW +6000 love it!! Should get me back to the plus side. Got to add it up yet. Great job kegray!!:00hour :00x1 Maybe I should keep a total just for the Dark Horse's.:mj07:

 

[kegray1]

With 23 laps to go I had the guys running 1st,3rd,4th(Kahne,Kurt Busch,Montoya) with Smoke sitting in 2nd.
All I kept thinking was one should beat him. #48 takes out Kurt B and JPM just wasn't that strong.
Kahne kept saying his car was good.He was right.