NASCAR - The Aaron's 499 at Talladega

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Huckleberry

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Race 9 out of 36
at Talladega SuperSpeedway - 2.66 mile high banked tri-oval - 188 laps for 500 miles

This Week's Schedule: (All times Eastern)
Friday, April 19th
11:00AM - 1:00PM Practice
3:05PM - Qualifying (two laps, all positions)

Saturday, April 20th
9:30AM - 10:15AM First Winston Cup Practice - 45 Minutes
11:15PM - 12:00PM Happy Hour Practice - 45 Minutes

Sunday, April 21st
1:00PM The Aaron's 499

From the slowest track on the circuit to the fastest. This is the second restrictor plate race of this year, and while many fans believe that this race is way to tough to handicap due to all the cars being so close together, it's actually one of the easiest in my opinion. With there only being 4 restrictor plate races a year, some programs really step it up, while others do what they can to compete, finish in one piece and get out of there alive. Cars are totally different, as you have to build cars specifically for these speedways, and a few teams are simply a head above the rest.
With that being said, of course you have to have a lot of luck just like in any other week. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and Tony Stewart arguably had the two best cars at Daytona earlier this year, but a blown engine and a blown tire took them out of contention very early, but those are 2 drivers who are definately in two of the top restrictor plate programs.

The early drivers to watch:
1 S. Park - Will include the 1 simply because he is w/ DEI. Hasn't had much previous success at restrictors overall, but did post a 6th place finish in the fall race here last year. Let's see how he looks in practice.
5 T. Labonte - For some reason, the 5 team has run very well here in the last few years. He seems to do well at only a handful of traks, and this is one of them.
6 M. Martin - Well, somehow the 6 car and team is sitting 3rd in the Winston Cup standings. Martin hasn't done anything very impressive so far this year, but he comes to a track that has seen him finish 9th, 4th, 7th, and 6th in the last four races. He should be heard from this week.
8 D. Earnhardt, Jr. - Jr. has quickly taken over the reigns as "Mr. Restrictor" plate. Seems like he has racing at these type of tracks in his blood. Wonder why. The 8 car will be fighting for the win this week.
12 R. Newman - The honeymoon is over for this rookie. The last 3 races have seen this team not finish inside of 40th, but they come to a place that is fast. And Newman likes to go fast. Let's see if he can turn it around.
15 M. Waltrip - If you ever consider betting on the 15 car, this is the week. Hasn't had good finishes here at all recently, but the DEI program is just too good. Waltrip should get a top 10.
17 M. Kenseth - I just can't get over how great a run this team is on right now. They end up in the top 5 at every race, and should be there at the end of this one too. 4th in the fall race here gives them even more confidence.
18 B. Labonte - Since the 18 won their first race at a short track last week, they will probably keep struggling on the tracks they used to dominate at. A great finish this week could mean a run towards the top 5 of the Winston Cup standings.
20 T. Stewart - Had the "BEST" car last week. Hands down. As a matter of fact, the 20 team has had the best car at a lot of tracks this year. Consecutive 2nd place finishes here last year. Could very easily win his 2nd race of the year this week.
22 W. Burton - The Daytona 500 winner hasn't had much to be happy about since then, but they could make some noise this week. Then again, they could run great and get caught up in another wreck too.
24 J. Gordon - Tough break for this team last week. Boohoo. Seriously though, the 24 either wins this race or finishes 30th it seems. Of course, they have all the tools to win here again, but there is simply no value whatsoever with him the way his luck seems to be right now.
28 R. Rudd - That's now 3 solid races in a row for this team. Cannot ignore a Robert Yates car at a restrictor plate track.
29 K. Harvick - Only include Harvick here to comment on "What the hell is this guy thinking?" Commend Nascar on the suspension. That hopefully sent him a message. Good guy, but a real hot head on the track.
33 M. Wallace - Here is #1 surprise guy to keep an eye on this week. This team hasn't run since Rockingham, and if they are running this week, there is a great reason for it. I will have my eye on this longshot all weekend.
40 S. Marlin - Has cooled off a ton recently, and comes to a track that hasn't been all that kind to him. He can't be overlooked however.
41 J. Spencer -Boy is this guy annoying. He just bothers me to no end.......maybe it's his mouth and running the 32 into the wall on 2 separate occasions last week. He can make himself heard from this week.....I just hope not.
48 J. Johnson -Finally a bad finsish for this team last week. Should be back in the top 10 here.
55 B. Hamilton - Last year's winner of this race, and a 5th place finisher here in the fall. It's not a fluke. It's Andy Petree Racing. He should be there again.
88 D. Jarrett - Great gutsy race last week to finish in 4th. Not expecting him to win this week, but like his teammate, we must keep an eye on him.
97 K. Busch - Do not be surprised if this team gets their 2nd win this year. Really has a great shot at it.
99 J. Burton - Pit strategy let him lead some laps last week, but he never really contended for the win unfortunately. Some good finishes here and at Talladega, so we'll include him.

A lot more guys to look at this week, and some with huge prices. And I'm even leaving off a few like #9 Bill Elliott.

One more note. Keep an eye out for the Kenny Wallace car this week. This team has good backing and a lot of help from M. Waltrip and DEI. They are running car #98.

I'll stop talking now. Sorry. In case you haven't noticed, I'm really looking forward to this race.

Any input and opinions?
GLTA
 

sandwedge

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agree on mike wallace. he was on his way to two top 10 finishes last year at talladega in a ford (had accident trouble on last lap), and is in a better car this year. formerly joe nemechek's the 33 has had some strong performances at talladega.

70-1 is tempting. i might wait until after qualifying though, with the large field there is a chance he might not get in depending on who runs well in qualifying and who doesn't. i don't really expect he will qualify that high, but qualifying position is not as important here as it is at some tracks.
 

Huckleberry

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I don't think I'll wait.........

I don't think I'll wait.........

The 33 car has qualified 9th, 10th, POLE, 24th, POLE and 4th the last 6 visits. Throw in 11th, 8th, and 8th the last 3 visits to Daytona, and I'll take a shot now while that price is still there. Just in case.
 
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djv

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They did not use the one engine rule at Daytona. I have to wonder how many folks will not even think about the poll. Im not going near qlfing this week. Some teams talking out laud they wil save there engines as much as they can for the race. I also wonder if the little help they gave the Chevs will do any good.
 

Huckleberry

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Good points DJV.....

Good points DJV.....

However, I believe they will save their engines in the practice before Q and after IMO. With handling not being nearly as important here as it is at Daytona, I just don't see many cars putting on a lot of practice laps.
But even though you can come from anywhere on this track to win, teams still want to start up front, so they can be up front in case of the inevitable "big one".
I would look for Dodge or Chevy to be on the pole here. 9 has been great in Q this year and has a great history here in qualifying. Wouldn't be surprised to him him get his 3rd pole of the year.
 

Myron

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Huckleberry I doubt they'll worry much about "the big one". If you recall at Daytona the cars were not nearly as bunched up as they used to be due to the new restrictor plates. Cars will want to be up front because it is so bloody difficult to pass now and because they can drive off a bit on the field. One thing that I do know is that speeds will be a lot lower than they usually are at Talladega. The Daytona 500 saw an average speed almost 5 mph slower than the norm at that track. The new plates slowed down the cars considerably and without the usual drafting that goes on when cars are totally bunched up speeds have to come down. Average speed at the track is usually about 160-167 mph. I expect it to be somewhere in the 150's for this race.

BTW, the drivers I like for the race are Jr, Stewart and for an outsider Bobby Hamilton who for some reason excels at Talladega.
 
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Neemer

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Possible 20 different teams could take home checkred flag. Chevys dominated in qualifying. Newman fastest Ford to qualify. DEI group(Jr, Waltrip, Harvick??, adopted son Wallace) always worth a consideration. If ya had to skip one race and not gamble, this one would be as good as any. Too many indirect factors at work here..
 

Neemer

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Bluegrass!
i REALLY like two of these....

A 31 4/21 (F) EARNHARDT VS HENDRICK (TEAM WITH THE HIGHEST FINISHING DRIVER (1:00 pm ET)
Wager Id Outcome Money Line
8031 EARNHARDT(D EARNHARDT,S PARK,M WALTRIP) -140 Circled Wager
8032 HENDRICK (J GORDON,T LABONTE,J NADEAU) +110 Circled Wager

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A 33 4/21 (F) PENSKE VS YATES (TEAM WITH THE HIGHEST FINISHING DRIVER) (1:00 pm ET)
Wager Id Outcome Money Line
8033 PENSKE (RUSTY WALLACE, RYAN NEWMAN) -120 Circled Wager
8034 YATES RACING (R.RUDD & D.JARRETT) -110 Circled Wager

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A 35 4/21 (F) ROUSH VS CHILDRESS (TEAM WITH THE HIGHEST FINISHING DRIVER) (1:00 pm ET)
Wager Id Outcome Money Line
8035 ROUSH (J. BURTON, M. MARTIN, M. KENSETH) -130 Circled Wager
8036 CHILDRESS (K.HARVICK, R.GORDON, J.GREEN)


DEI-HENDRICK--2(Waltrip, E) against 1(Gordon)....I like the odds and would take it every time.

Take Rudd & Jarrett as well. Newman has done poorly last three races and this rook is finally coming back down to earth. Wallace never been a big fan at Talladega. Experience of Jarrett and Rudd should pay off
 

djv

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Wy do I think a few those fords will just easy on up to the top 5 or 6. I don't think a ford wins. No wrecks to get inth way. I like Jr.
Stewart. And don't count Marlin out. If You new where J Gordons head is at it, would be easy to pick him for top 3. But I think I would pass on him at this point.
 
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Huckleberry

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DJV.....24 is always a problem when betting on drivers to win. But at odds of 8-1 at the very highest, you are right......There just isn't any value in picking him this week IMO.
But he will be around at the end I fear along with one other guy you mentioned that I'm not playing because this odds are so bad.
But, here's what I'm going with:

To Win :
6 MMartin +2500 1unit
17 MKenseth +2500 2units
18 BLabonte +2500 1 Units
20 TStewart +1100 2units
22 WBurton +1800 1unit
33 MWallace +6600 ?unit
55 BHamilton +5500 ?unit
97 KBusch +2800 2units

Matchups:
88 Jarrett ov 9 Elliott EV 5units
97 Busch ov 10 Benson -125 4units
18 Labonte ov 29 Harvick -115 4units
8 Earnhardt, Jr ov 24 Gordon -114 4 units
17 Kenseth ov 12 Newman -115 5units
97 Busch ov 5 Labonte +110 5units
1 Park ov 15 Waltrip +160 3units
97 Busch ov 48 Johnson +165 to win 3units
ROUSH (6, 17, 99) ov CHILDRESS (29, 30, 31) -150 5units

I obviously like the 97 this week, so it would be nice to see him run well for his owner (who is doing better from reports I've read).

Let's have a good safe race and hope that we don't see what we saw yesterday in the Busch series.
 

Huckleberry

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Well.....

Well.....

I left off the favorite of the race, costing me. But the 97 ran one hell of a race, so I'm still pleased somewhat.

ODDS TO WIN:
Week: 0-8 -10units
Year: 0-14 -27units

MATCHUPS:
Week: 7-2 +23.9units
Year: 15-6 +39.25units

The index is really taking away from the profit margin, but I have confidence I will have the winner soon.
 
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