NASCAR - The Dodge/Save Mart 350 at SEARS POINT

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Huckleberry

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Mar 2, 2002
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Race 16 out of 36
at Sears Point Raceway - 2 mile Road Course - 112 laps for 350 Kilometers (224 miles) (Conflicting reports on nascar.com with this information though. Check it out for yourselves.)

Track Info

This Week's Schedule: (All times Eastern)
Friday, June 21st
1:20 p.m. Winston Cup 1st Practice
5:05 p.m. Winston Cup Bud Pole Qualifying

Saturday, June 22nd
12:30 p.m. Winston Cup 2nd Practice
2:15 p.m. Winston Cup Happy Hour Practice

Sunday, June 23rd
3 p.m. Start of The Dodge/Save Mart 350

The first of two road course events is in store this week. While one name immediately comes to mind when thinking road courses, there are always other drivers to consider, especially the "hired guns" as they are called. There is also something else to deal with this weekend though, and that is the massive upgrade made to this facility since the Winston Cup boys visited last year. Gone is the "Gilligan's Island" second pit road, meaning there will finally be one pit road here. In addition to that, the track has made "improvements" hoping for a much more competetive race, including some different turn characteristics and some longer straightaways. Make sure you read up as much as you can and take that into account when finalizing your wagering for this weekend.

The early drivers to watch:
2 R. Wallace -
Well, Rusty did it again. A no-nonsense top-10 finish at Michigan last week. Rusty has had his ups and downs at Sears Point and Watkins Glen, but should be of one the few drivers to consider when betting the winner here. Should be a much better play in matchups though.
6 M. Martin -
This team keeps on rolling right along, erasing all the talk that Martin was all done after last year's poor performance. Martin is one of the very few drivers to beat the 24 here, and should definately be a factor this week.
8 D. Earnhardt, Jr. -
Junior has never had much success at Sears Point, and the way this team is struggling right now, there is no reason to think they will have a great finish this week. I will look to play against him in the right matchups.
9 B. Elliott -
Bill had a great run for the first half of last week's race until a bad call with gas mileage set him back. Elliott won a road course before (Riverside) but should not be much of a factor as far as winning this one. If someone doesn't take how this team is performing this year into consideration and matches him up with the wrong driver, I will not be afraid to bet him.
12 R. Newman -
YEAH! YIPPEE! They finally put an entire race together! We all knew they could do it. To bad they take that momentum to a track that Newman has never raced at. He should not finish this race in the top 10. Top 20 would be an accomplishment IMO.
17 M. Kenseth -
Barring those 2 horrible finishes, 17 could easily be leading the points right now. He, like many of these drivers, has not been impressive at all at the road courses, but could be someone to watch this weekend. A pit crew like that can REALLY make up a lot of spots at a track that has so little passing opportunities. I will have my eye on him for matchups.
18 B. Labonte -
I bet this team wishes it was November right about now. Halfway through last week's race, crew chief Jimmy Makar and Labonte decided to treat the race as a test session. Nice! He has some decent finishes here though, but it's tough to bet a team that can't seem to do any better than a top 30.
20 T. Stewart -
I'm sure everyone remembers how the 20 won this race last year....but that wasn't a fluke, and Stewart is one of the drivers that will contend for this win. As with most of the contenders though, his odds are pretty weak right now.
24 J. Gordon -
Well...no COPY AND PASTE this week, because this team will finally hit victory lane this week. That's right. I'm going out on a limb, but for some reason, I firmly believe that they can win. Seriously though, at odds of 5-2 or less, his is pretty much unbettable, but without any complication, 24 wins this for fun.
28 R. Rudd -
It was nice for Ricky not to win last week...at least I know it's not me cursing him. But, as he and this team has done for the better part of the year, they were right there in the top 10 all day contending. Rudd has always had good success at the road courses, and is another driver who could possibly take the win away from the 24.
31 R. Gordon -
For the first time this year, Robby hits the "drivers to watch" page. And for good reason. Ignoring Gordon's really fluky cockpit fire last year (Nascar's telemetry unit) that relegated him to a 40th place finish at Watkins Glen, he really has been ( I can't believe I'm using this word to describe Robby Gordon's performance) dominant at road courses in his short career. He will contend this week.
40 S. Marlin -
Sterling is praying that he can finish in the top 10 somehow and not lose too many of his 110 point lead. That will be an accomplishment. They were surprisingly poor last week at a track that gave them a win last year. Sterling does have a 2nd place finish at Sears Point a couple of years ago, so there is some ray of hope for them this week.
48 J. Johnson -
That's it. Nothing will surprise me concerning this team the rest of year....Okay! Maybe one last thing. If Johnson can drive this car to a top 5 this weekend, then we all really know that he will contend for the title all year long. He tested here and was very happy, so that can only give him and edge considering the track has changed somewhat. I will leave him out of my win set, but will actually consider him in the right matchup.
67 B. Said -
One of the two road course specialists, Said is driving the backup car in the Jasper Motorsports stable. He always used to replace Pressley in the 77 car, but with Blaney on board this year, the team chose to field a second car. He is either 40th or 10th, so it's tough to figure out what he's going to do this week, and if the rumor that this little change in track configuration takes the huge edge that road course experts have, then it's tough to imagine that he can contend for the win. I will most likely leave him out altogether.
87 R. Fellows -
And here is arguably the "best" of all the "hired guns." Fellows has actually won when entered in a Nascar road course event (Busch Series), but he is also feast or famine. He is driving Joe Nemechek's car, and will be there if that car holds up. Unfortunately, it doesn't. If anyone is intested in betting Fellows to win, I would do it before qualifying, because a top 10 starting stop is more than likely.
88 D. Jarrett -
They are really looking better and better every week. Those 4 tires at the end made the finish a ton more exciting than it would have been, and Jarrett is no slouch at the road courses. He did not have good finishes last year, but the way this team is clicking right now, I will be taking a hard look at him.
97 K. Busch -
I just don't see it. If Busch finishes in the top 10, I will most likely have a bad day. While I do not underestimate this kid's talent, I simply don't see a top 20 at the road courses yet.
99 J. Burton -
Kind of a surprise lately at both Sears Point and Watkins Glen. (FWIW..I mention Watkins Glen a lot, even though the two tracks are drastically different road courses..at least before this year they have been. But while I don't take too much stock in Watkins results when capping Sears Point, I don't throw 'em completely out either). 99 has a 2nd and 9th place finsih here the last two trips, and will be one of the guys I look at for sure.

Well, this is basically 24's race to win or lose. There are a small handfull of other drivers that can give him a headahe, but it really is going to be tough to beat him the way he and his team are running this year. This will most likely be the week to focus much more on matchups than the index, unless qualifying results give me the value I'm looking for.

Any input and opinions?
GLTA
 

djv

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I agree Huck with a lot of the above. Both Gordons will be in top 5 unless they crash out. The 48 started on a few road course out west. But I don't know if he has been on this one. I can see just on strenght and young nerves he may make top 5. I like 17 last week much more then this week. Pits might not come into play here as much as oval raceing. No 2, Rusty is so over due. But does he still have it. Martin stays in real good shape and will be after the lead all day. The 12 I stay away from. And not to forget the 20 he will be there all day long.
 

Huckleberry

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Let's get after it early!

Let's get after it early!

Well.....I found +1000 or higher on the 31, so it's time to back up the talk. Also on a few other guys that I really think offer some value, and I doubt I'll see any better anywhere else. If so, might add some more. ;)
Matchups as well. It's early, but I think we all know who is going to be good and who is not. HH should not be a surprise I don't think. I'm playing one favorite for a break even more or less, and covering myself with just one "road course warrior", and another guy that could possibly get there. That means that I have to leave out someone, and unfortunately, that has to be the 24. That's tough to swallow, but unless better than 4-1 pops up, I just can't do it. Let's hope he gets his top 3 and is happy with that.

ODDS TO WIN
31 R. Gordon +1100 3 units
28 R. Rudd +1400 2 units
6 M. Martin +1400 2 units
87 R. Fellows +2200 0.8 units
2 R. Wallace +1400 1 unit
20 T. Stewart +400 3.5 units
12.3 units in.

MATCHUPS
31 ov 97 -139 5 units
88 ov 8 +135 4 units
28 ov 48 -135 5 units

Stepping it up this week, as I see some fantastic value with these prices. Be back tomorrow once others come up.

GLTA.
 
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Huckleberry

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I'm bitting the bullet and leaving out the 24 car. I already effed up by pulling the trigger too early on the 20......can get +600 right now on him.....as a matter of fact, I rounded up my win units to an even lucky 13 with an additional 0.7 units on the 20 at +600.
In the middle of the week, I never thought I would be in for 13 units, but WIT really threw a wrench in those plans.

So a total of 4.2 units on the 20 to win 18.2 units. Sure hope 24 extends that little winless streak of his.

Also bet another matchup:

10 ov 41 -120 4 units
 

Huckleberry

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Well guys, nothing to add this morning. The huge price movements on the plays I made earlier have me somewhat concerned, but we'll stick with it. I have much the best of every one of those bets, so let's hope it pans out.

GL to everyone. Sure hope I can have the kind of day 1837 did in F1. ;)
 

sandwedge

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Mar 14, 2001
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good luck huck. Jr and spencer hate road races so i definitely think you are on the right side on those.
 
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Huckleberry

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Mar 2, 2002
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Finally!

Finally!

A little luck going Ricky Rudd's way! Nadeau ( don't ask me how or why because I'm still in shock that he had that race won) broke down to give the 28 a much deserved victory.

Good day overall. 31 ov 97 was not good, as I really underestimated Busch this race. I won't make that mistake in 2 weeks, that's for sure.

Let's head to DAYTONA!
 

Huckleberry

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THANKS Chucky! You got it! I'll take it any way I can get it!

Also, it occurred to me that I completely forgot to update the record through the Michigan race. So I'll do that now and follow that with the record through yesterday's race.

Through MICHIGAN:
ODDS TO WIN:
Winston Cup/Week: 0-3 -2 units
Overall Year: 5-54 +52 units
MATCHUPS:
Winston Cup/Week: 1-1 -2.6 units
Year: 30-24 +20.02 units

Total for the week: -4.6 units
Yearly Combined: +72.02 units

Through SEARS POINT:
ODDS TO WIN:
Winston Cup/Week: 1-5 +17 units
Overall Year: 6-59 +69 units
MATCHUPS:
Winston Cup/Week: 3-1 +6.05 units
Year: 33-25 +26.07 units

Total for the week: +23.05 units
Yearly Combined: +95.07 units
 
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djv

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Good Job Huck. I never got into this race at all. So busy with softball tourneys I can't think streight. We took 3rd this week out of a field of 48 teams. Only thing I got in on 3 glfing plays in formula 1. I don't even now what happen but im going to check right now.
 

Huckleberry

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Mar 2, 2002
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Thanks DJV..........You are placing your focus where it belongs and a 3rd out of 48 is quite good! We have 2 weeks before Daytona, so hopefully we can get to victory lane then!
 
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