NASCAR - The New England 300 @ NEW HAMPSHIRE

[Huckleberry]

After still not having figured out why the 29 car won last week, and why I didn't play him (should defending race winners be played automatically?), it's simply time to move on and get it back at NHIS like USC Gamecock said.

A few early plays have been made.

QUALIFYING MATCHUPS
36 K. Schrader ov 41 J. Spencer -120 5 units (Schrader gets around this track great for one lap)

ODDS TO WIN
32 R. Craven +6500 .5 units
25 J. Nemecheck +6300 .5 units

GLTA

 

[Myron]

Huckleberry the reason you didn't play him is that he sucked all year and in reality he probably shouldn't have won the race anyways. He just got lucky after causing the caution that he was able to take on enough gas to stay out late in the race when the others came in for fuel. If there was justice in the world then either Stewart, Newman or Dale Jr would have won that race.

I was at the horse race track last month and they had a minor stakes race. The horse that won the race last year was in it again. Unfortunately he was terrible almost from the time he won the stakes race last year and in fact the last time out before this race he was 2nd last in an allowance race. I tossed him out as a contender immediately as did everyone else - he went off at 45-1 odds. Sure enough he won the race. Was there any reason to bet him based on current form - of course not. But that's the way it is sometimes. Don't second guess yourself and start playing bad bets or you will quickly find yourself down money.

As for this week I find your Schrader vs. Spencer bet interesting. At any other track I think Spencer would beat Schrader at qualifying as he is a much better qualifier. But at Loudon (or North Carolina) I think you may be right. To win the race I've narrowed it down to the 20, 24, 99 and 17 with outside chances to the 18 and 32. I'm hoping to find better odds on Burton though. At 8-1 or less he is unplayable with his current form although he LOVES Loudon. Forget about Nemechek as he is awful on flat tracks.

 

[Huckleberry]

You make some GREAT points there Myron. Perfect analogy w/ the stakes race. Makes me fell a little better, however I think I'm going to have to look at defending race winners a little closer, if the odds go through the roof like they did on the 29 last week.

I like your 4 drivers, and agree that it's really tough to play the 99 at 8-1....almost impossible IMO. However, I wouldn't discount the Yates guys this week. I'm sure I'll throw out the 24 again, and will most likely add 1 or both Yates drivers.

And the play on Nemo was a combination of things, including the fact that the team seems to be coming around some (now if they could get rid of that horrid luck). 25 had some nice setups for this car and have been competetive (6th and 4th out of the last 4 trips here) lately.

And he can't be that awful considering he won here 5 races ago. Sure, he's not my #1 guy this week, but 65-1 is an overlay IMO.

 

[djv]

I agree with most everything you guys said. And Watch old 29 be 10th or back this week. Can't see his season turning that easy with that much luck in two weeks. I know he is good enough. But he may not finish in top 15.

 

[Myron]

Looking for a value play in NASCAR qualifying and I think I found one at WSEX with Bobby Hamilton vs. Mike Skinner.

Skinner +150 vs. Hamilton

In 17 races this year Skinner outqualified Hamilton 12 times including the last 4. Hamilton has qualified ok at Loudon in the past but that was the past and this year he has joined Terry Labonte in the "couldn't qualify for shit" club. It's certainly not a sure thing, but 3 to 2 odds on a driver with a 71% head to head record this year??? Sounds good to me.

Also Elliot +110 vs. Rudd. Rudd is generally a better flat track driver but Elliot has outqualified Rudd 13 times this year. And in 1 of those losses Elliot blew an engine or he would have beat him that time too. Looking at Rockingham this year (the most similar track) Rudd was 27th and Elliot 28th. So Rudd certainly didn't blow him away there and Elliot has qualified better since then while Rudd seems content to come from the back.

 

[Huckleberry]

I'll be rooting for you Myron......I was really considering playing the 4 ov 55 in Q after seeing that HUGE MOVE, but I simply can't bring myself to do it. I have a couple days to think about it.......but I totally understand where you are getting this play from.

The other is a toss-up IMO.

BTW......I will no longer be doing those endlessly long weekly write-ups, as there are more and more driver every week that can win a race. I would have to start including like 25 guys, and no one reads any post that long.

Let's just talk about individual drivers instead. Cool?

 

[Myron]

Looks like money is coming back in on Skinner and Elliot. I guess others agree with me.

 

[azjeff]

thanks

thanks

Thanks for the great qualifying plays guys..

 

[sandwedge]

days like this make me very glad the books are such pussies about qualifying bets. you could have lost a bundle if you were able to bet qualifying matchups after practice as there seemed to be very little correlation between practice and qualifying.

 

[Myron]

 

[djv]

Very Nice Work. For the race I have tha gut feeling to keep eye on 6,20,24 and 88. Wish I had more time back to touney ball this weekend. So will grap a few you guys ideas. Hey seems to work. And I do thank you all for your insight and picks. GL

 

[Myron]

I don't like the 88 at all. IMO it will be between 24, 20, 17 an 99

 

[USC Gamecock]

Hey Huckleberry,

I for one am going to miss those long ass write-ups of yours. They were my weekly race primer. You had tons of good stuff in there, but I understand if you're not gonna do it anymore b/c I'm sure they took a long time to write...just know they will be missed.

By the way, how about your Birds tonight? They looked pretty damn good. Unfortunately my Yankees took it up the key hole...damn Red Sux.

GL this week.

 

[Huckleberry]

It's really not a matter of time USC, just thinking of breaking it down some to make it easier to read maybe......

If my O's hit .500 I will be pumped! Those days of the O's and Yanks playoff series seem like forever ago for me.

Made a few more plays:

Currently, I have:
ODDS TO WIN
55 B. Hamilton +5000 .5 units
99 J. Burton +1600 1.5 units
25 J. Nemeckek +6300 .5 units
32. R. Craven +6500 .5 units

MATCHUPS
18 ov 2 +150 2 units

 

[Myron]

Huckleberry I notice Starnet books have the 55 at 100-1 odds. If anyone has an account with them I'd jump all over it. The 55 is going to be strong this race as he was 2nd fastest in 1st practice, fastest in happy hour and starts 10th. Most drivers feel he has the car to beat.

As for the 18 over the 2, Labonte crashed in practice and starts last. With his new motor he was fairly slow in practice so unfortunately I give him little chance. Craven has a decent chance.

Here is what I'm thinking of playing

Kenseth to win for 2 units
Stewart to win for 2 units
Hamilton to win for 1 unit
Craven to win for 1 unit

Also I'm willing to take anyone over Shelmerdine .

 

[Huckleberry]

Myron.....that was the opening price on Monday. If they are not updating their prices, it's a MUST to have that as an out. The starnet book I have has the 55 at 20-1.

I'm not concerned whatsover with 18 starting in the back. 18 has beaten the 2 the last five trips here, and this is basically the only type of track they have success at anymore. I feel good about that one if he doesn't wreck out or something.

 

[Huckleberry]

ONE Busch matchup so far.....

ONE Busch matchup so far.....

BUSCH SERIES MATCHUP
23 S. Wimmer ov 36 H. Parker, Jr. -130 4 units

 

[Myron]

Busch series race should be good. I'm looking at Biffle or possibly Compton as a longshot. David Green qualified the car for Stacy and was strong in every practice and qualifying. I'm not a Compton fan but I think he'll be there and abouts throughout.

 

[Huckleberry]

GREAT call w/ the 60! This is the time he pulls away for the title I believe.

 

[Huckleberry]

Here is what I ended up with. Able to play more drivers than usual due to the high odds, but still keeping to the usual 9-12 unit outlay.

ODDS TO WIN
17 M. Kenseth +1000 2 units
24 J. Gordon +600 2.5 units
20 T. Stewart +800 2.5 units
55 B. Hamilton +5000 .5 units
99 J. Burton +1360 2.5 units (added 1 unit at +1000)
25 J. Nemeckek +6300 .5 units
32. R. Craven +6500 .5 units

Even though there are 7 drivers there, I'm still leaving out a few drivers that can easily win this race. They include the 6, 10, 28 and 97. 10 has put good solid runs here in the past, and has looked pretty decent all weekend. But it is Jerry Nadeau after all.

MATCHUPS
18 ov 2 +150 2 units
21 ov 4 -125 4 units
24 ov 17 -125 4 units
99 ov 48 -106 5 units

GL everyone.