NASCAR - The Pocono 500 at POCONO RACEWAY

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Huckleberry

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Through DOVER: :(
ODDS TO WIN:
Winston Cup/Week: 0-4 -9 units
Overall Year: 4-41 +51 units
MATCHUPS:
Winston Cup/Week: 3-5 -15.7 units
Year: 26-23 +11.62 units

Total for the week: -24.7 units
Yearly Combined: +62.62 units

Race 14 out of 36
at Pocono Raceway - 2.5 mile Tri-Oval - 200 laps for 500 miles

This Week's Schedule: (All times Eastern)
Friday, June 7th
11:20 a.m. Winston Cup 1st Practice
3:05 p.m. Winston Cup Bud Pole Qualifying

Saturday, June 8th
9:30 a.m. Winston Cup 2nd Practice
11:15 a.m. Winston Cup Happy Hour Practice

Sunday, June 9th
1 p.m. Start of the POCONO 500

Welcome to Pocono Raceway, where the one-engine rule should get it's stiffest test of the year. While it is 100 miles shorter than the 600 at Charlotte, Pocono's odd triangle configuration means huge straightaways, and turns that require downshifting. Historically, only a handfull of drivers have won at Pocono, so that's who I will be looking at this week. With SOME luck, I should get back into victory lane.

The early drivers to watch:
2 R. Wallace -
It's here Rusty. Pocono. You should be pumped. However, your recent performances may lead me to completely overlook you. But I won't. What I will do is hope you qualify in the 20's so I can take some value with you. Currently, your odds of +1200 are not worth a play.
6 M. Martin] -
Could Mark have won 2 in a row? It sure would have been nice to find out, but the bad luck bug bit hard while he was leading by over 4 seconds. Regardless, Martin will be heard from again and should contend for the checkers baring anything silly happening again. With his propensity to qualify in the top 5 here, I've already played him at +1500.
8 D. Earnhardt, Jr. -
What in the world is going on with this team? It's one thing to finish poorly to due some bad race luck, but they are simply not contending at all anywhere they run recently. Jr. had two great runs here last year, so I have to think he will be there this week, but I just can't make a play on him at the odds that are out there. I would think long and hard if +1300 was available though.
9 B. Elliott -
Hey, maybe it if were the MBNA 402, Bill could have won it. He was coming on strong at the end (albeit because 48 was not running as hard I believe), and should be one of the nice long shots for this week. I've seen as high as +3500 on Bill, which really offers some nice value. I haven't played him yet, but am really considering it due to his decent qualifying runs at this track and overall this year.
12 R. Newman -
Well, last week showed what this car/driver can do if it lasts the entire race. I make him a favorite not to last this race, but if by chance the engine lasts, Newman might be worth a look. This team took Mayfield to 2 wins here, so that can only help.
17 M. Kenseth -
It finally happened for this team. A horrible finish dropping him from 2nd to 4th in the overall standings. While a ton of other drivers have fared much better here than Kenseth, I can easily see the 17 contending for this one. Let's just hope he qualifies like he has in the past here.
18 B. Labonte -
Another struggling team returns to a track that has given them a lot of success. The 18 has 3 wins here in the last 6 races, so we have to take a look at him. Anything less than +1500 is simply not going to do it though.
20 T. Stewart -
Much like many tracks that this team goes to around this time of year, you see real good finishes. The 20 is currently favored to win along with the 24, and while he should bounce back after a horrible Dover race last week (for this team), +600 is not nearly enough.
24 J. Gordon -
Is this the week? Is it? Okay...let me play the recording: "Gordon and his team are too good not to win a race soon. He's had great success at (insert track here), so don't be surprised to finally see him in victory lane again." Copy and paste that for next week's write-up.
28 R. Rudd -
Well, this team almost gave me a coronary last week. At least he was there and was contending, so it wasn't all that bad a selection. And to one's surprise I'm sure, I'm on him again this week. Without any bad luck or stupid mistakes in the pits, he should be the one at +600. So +1100 is a play.
40 S. Marlin -
I don't know how much longer Sterling can keep running this way and hold on to his point lead. Sure Terry Labonte won the title doing the same thing in 1996, but the 40 has to start contending for wins again soon. Much like Dover, Marlin never amounted to much at Pocono until last year, so let's keep an eye on him this week. I've seen as high as +1500 which isn't bad.
48 J. Johnson -
It really is amazing what great equipment can do for anyone. Now, I'm not saying that Steve Grissom could jump into this car and do what Johnson is, but using Gordon's old chassis' sure doesn't hurt. They put it all together last week and have to be considered at each track from now on no matter whether JJ has run there in the past or not. I've seen as low at +600 on him, which is pretty ridiculous, but did find him (I don't know how) part of the field at +2000, so I pulled the trigger for a small play just in case they decide to remind us of their part owner of 4 years ago.
88 D. Jarrett -
Did they turn the corner last week? If so, then they come to a track that could easily give them a win. Jarrett has a ridiculous 5 straight top 3 finishes in this race (including one 2nd place finish) and prior to the 2nd Pocono race of 2001, had amassed 9 straight top 5's. I'm really considering playing him before qualifying because he should start in the top 10.
97 K. Busch -
Busch showed us a lot coming from 2 laps down to finish where he did. Keep an eye on the 97 this week. He's definitely on my list.
99 J. Burton -
I simply have no clue what this team is going to do from week to week, and his results at this track doesn't change that for me at all. He could win or finish 38th. Hard to bet into that.

Well, I'm on the 28 and the 6 again. I know it's like a broken record, but their current form and finishes at these venues make them a must play for me. I'm looking seriously at the 88 as my 3rd pre-qualifying wager as well.
I also left out some past Pocono winners like Mayfield, but I just don't see him having any confidence right now. I may change my mind after practices, but I doubt it.
Also, even though I don't change the write-up on the 24, I really think this is his best chance at a win so far this year. We all know that he has been very consistent this year, but he is now starting to run in the top 5 more and more which means that a win is around the corner.

Any input and opinions?
GLTA
 

Huckleberry

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Early WIN bets.....

Early WIN bets.....

ODDS TO WIN:
28 R. Rudd +1100 2 units
6 M. Martin +1500 1.5 units
88 D. Jarrett +1300 1 units
48 J. Johnson (part of Field Bet) +2000 0.5 units
 

grinin

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Opinions? Of course.

Opinions? Of course.

I don't play too many win bets below 12 to 1 because of the vast amount of variables involved and that is the best I can get with the books I have for Martin, Rudd and Jarrett.

Not quite enough value for me to pull the trigger.

I did however find the field bet earlier today with Johnson in it at 20-1 and placed a small wager also. Checking back now the odds have been adjusted to 10-1. Good thing about this one is JJ took some test laps here just a few days ago, hopefully familiarize himself with the track a little bit.

One other thing of note. I will be laying low on qualifying for Pocono. I think most of the teams will be more concerned about how the engine is going to last/perform in a 500 mile race rather than where they start.
 
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djv

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I agree race match ups only this week for me to. This track will test the engines. They will be doing some high rev level shifting. It's a strang track.
 

djv

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Well I see being out on business trip last three days im out of touch. WAs only going to do race this week. I see now that is all we have. Water on the track so no glfing. what the heck they had no rain at that tracklast two days did they? Is the track doing what they call weeping from rain earlier in the week?
 

Huckleberry

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Busch Series Action

Busch Series Action

Anyone that follows the Busch Series knows that there isn't much value out there most of the time, but the concrete surface as Nashville offers us a little tonight.

First things first. Greg Biffle in the 60 and Scott Riggs in the 10 are going to be very tough to beat. But I will take a longshot who just dominates the concrete for some reason, and I'll also take the co-favorite.

ODDS TO WIN:
23 S. Wimmer +2000 .5 units
25 B. Hamilton, Jr. +500 2.5 units

I wasn't able to find any matchups w/ Wimmer in there, and that is just a shame because I think we could have stolen some there.

GLTA
 
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Huckleberry

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Wow...I haven't seen prices like this in a long time. Without discipline, I could end up with 10 drivers here. Hell, even w/ some discipline, I may end up with 10.

40 at +1500? 97 at +2500? 9 at +4500? 8 at +1800? 12 at +2500? 20 at +1100? I guess a lot of these places are banking on 24 finally winning.

Anyhow, I must add a few plays.

ODDS TO WIN
9 Elliott +4500 .3 units
97 Busch +2500 1 unit
40 Marlin +1500 .7 units

I'm stuck between the 8 and the 20.

Back later.
 

Huckleberry

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Well, a 2nd place and a 7th place in the Busch Series. Sure doesn't pay the bills. :(

We'll get 'em tomorrow.
 

grinin

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1.5*D Jarrett +100 ov DE jr
0.5*K petty under 95 race points +175
1*R Wallace +150 ov R Rudd
I like Rudd a lot in this race but the +150 was too much to pass up. I forgot about the broke foot though. I probably would have passed or waited till +170 if I had remembered.

prequal:
2.5*M Martin -111 ov DE jr
1.5*D Jarrett -111 ov J Burton
0.3*J Johnson (field) 20-1 win

My books seem to be really sharp with their lines this week. I hope this is not a trend. I can usually count on Bet365 to have at least 4-5 mu's or props I like and I've only got the one Petty prop with them that seemed to offer only some slight value. They also waited very late to put up their lines this week by comparison to the past. Did anyone see them up before 6:30 pm eastern there? I know they were not up at 2 pm. (Just thinking maybe I got in late and all the value was gone in a couple of hours.)
 
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Huckleberry

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Good ol' Ricky Rudd is starting in the rear today. I think this is the 4th guy that I have bet to win that has changed engines and started in the back.

Good thing is that I won 2 of those races, so let's hope it happens again. He has plenty of time to do it.

MATCHUPS
26 T. Bodine ov 11 B. Bodine -130 4 units (bet this last night and forgot to post it)
77 Blaney ov 30 Green -120 4 units
8 Dale, Jr. ov 9 Elliott -135 3 units
 

Huckleberry

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Sorry.....

Sorry.....

Forgot to answer your question grinin.......365 was very late this week putting up their stuff. You didn't miss anything that I'm aware of.
 
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Huckleberry

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Recap: I only added 1 unit on the 6 car at +1100, instead of taking another driver.

ODDS TO WIN
28 R. Rudd +1100 2 units
6 M. Martin +1340 2.5 units
88 D. Jarrett +1300 1 units
48 J. Johnson (part of Field Bet) +2000 0.5 units
9 Elliott +4500 .3 units
97 Busch +2500 1 unit
40 Marlin +1500 .7 units

MATCHUPS
26 T. Bodine ov 11 B. Bodine -130 4 units
77 Blaney ov 30 Green -120 4 units
8 Dale, Jr. ov 9 Elliott -135 3 units

Very limited in the matchups.
 

Huckleberry

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ONE TIME! Just once!!!!

ONE TIME! Just once!!!!

Very soon, I would like this stinkin' racin' luck to turn around and go my way......I mean come on. A flat right rear for Rudd in the closing laps?????? :confused: :mad:

At least the drivers were all there at the end and it wasn't a complete disaster.
 
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