NASCAR - The Winston All-Star race at CHARLOTTE

[Huckleberry]

Well, after a week off, the WC boys are back on the track today for practice and qualifying for tomorrow night's festivities.

With this being a non-points race, I won't bore everyone with a full write up. However.....

There is some value in betting this race, as the prize for winning is a HUGE amount of cash, so the cream should rise to the top in this one. I will be looking at the following drivers to win The Winston:

6 M. Martin
8 D. Earnhardt, Jr.
12 R. Newman (has to win his way into the Winston)
17 M. Kenseth
18 B. Labonte
20 T. Stewart
24 J. Gordon
40 S. Marlin
48 J. Johnson
97 K. Busch

Depending on the odds around, I will play at the very most 5 drivers from that list. I doubt I'll play the 24 due to his odds, so he will be my sweat. I have already played 2 drivers earlier today as their odds were too good to pass up.

I also expect Ryan Newman in the 12 car to win his way into the Winston field by either winning the Winston Open race or the 16 lap sprint race. He will be fast.

ODDS TO WIN:
48 J. Johnson +2000 1.5 units
6 M. Martin +2000 0.5 unit

GLTA

 

[djv]

Huck I have idea 17's odds will change fast. M Waltrip another sleeper? What you think.

 

[Huckleberry]

You may have something there DJV.....

You may have something there DJV.....

Until Daytona, the only think Waltrip was known for (besides being Darrell's brother) was his winning The Winston back in '96. We all know he's good on speedways, but until he and that team show me that they can win anywhere else but at a restrictor plate track, I just can't put money on him. But that is just me. I may regret that thinking tomorrow, because he had a good happy hour as well.

And while 17 did get the pole, he wasn't particularly very fast. His crew won that for him with that 13 second tire change. But he, like Marlin, really race MUCH better than they qualify, so with him on the pole, he should be one of the 10 cars fighting for it at the end.

BTW.....expect the field to be inverted up to the maximum positions of 10. I really think everyone is going to vote that way.

 

[djv]

Yes I agree they will invert the 10. I also agree with Waltrip needs to show us more then he does. But odds might make the play worth just a touch. Yup 17 has good chance. I might just touch that a little to. I do believe Tony will have a big say in who wins. Odds are not so good with him. Im going with you on the Johnson kid. He sure has a good chance. That kid is learning fast some of the tricks the old timer may play on a young guy. Im thinking he's better then Harvick and Busch right now. He's going to move up the next notch to couple of the other young guns, JR and Kenseth. GL and I hope it's some good watching for us tonight.

 

[Huckleberry]

Hey DJV...

Hey DJV...

FYI.......Don't know if you have an account at Pinnacle, but the 15 is +3300 there, which is by FAR the best I've seen on him.

 

[Huckleberry]

Going to play the Winston Open. Although I really believe the 12 car of Ryan Newman is going to win this, I see some solid value with both the 19 of Mayfield and 41 of Spencer. So I'm playing them hoping 12 blows up like he did last year.

ODDS TO WIN The Winston Open
19 Mayfield +600 1.5 units
41 Spencer +500 1.5 units

ODDS TO WIN The Winston
Winston Open Winner +3000 0.5 units

Doing work on the matchups now.

Be back soon.

 

[Ticker]

At 5dimes I like winner of Open to finish top 10 in Winston at +150 Any Opinions?

 

[Ticker]

Huck

Huck

Where did you find those odds on the Open? Thanks

 

[Huckleberry]

Bets finalized.....

Bets finalized.....

Ticker.......I got Mayfield here in LV and Spencer at 5dimes. The more I think about it though, the more I wish I had only picked one of those guys and not 2. But I saw +600 on Mayfield and pulled the trigger seeing that he was so much lower offshore. Oh well......
And I'm not sure about that +150. I haven't done the math on it, but it seems pretty low compared to the +3000 to win it. I would think that if the winner of the Open is in the top 10 (final segment), then the difference between +3000 and +150 is huge. So much stuff can happen in racing that taking +150 doesn't seem like a good idea to me. Just my opinion of course. Good luck with whatever you do.

ODDS TO WIN The Winston Open
19 Mayfield +600 1.5 units
41 Spencer +500 1.5 units

ODDS TO WIN The Winston
48 J. Johnson +2000 1.5 units
6 M. Martin +2000 0.5 units
Winston Open Winner +3000 0.5 units
28 R. Rudd +1100 1 unit
8 D. Earnhardt, Jr. +900 2units
24 J. Gordon +900 1.5 unit

Leaving out the 20 which bothers me, but doesn't bother me as much as wagering on the 24. I promised myself I wouldn't until he showed me he could win, but +900 is tough to pass up.

MATCHUPS for The Winston
6 ov 29 -130 3 units
40 ov 97 -125 3 units
99 ov 29 -132 2 units
6 ov 40 +135 2 units

That's it. Good luck guys.

 

[Huckleberry]

OKAY! Good start....

OKAY! Good start....

To the evening.......Nice run by Mayfield. It was nice to see 36 and 12 get to racing for a bit.........that made it less of a sweat.

Let's hope this carries over into The Winston.

 

[Myron]

Huckleberry who had Mayfield at 6/1 for the Open? The only place I saw that offered the bet was OLY and they had him at 5/2 so I passed.

 

[Myron]

FWIW, here are my bets for the Winston. Most books still have it open until 9 p.m. ET.

To win:
Jeff Gordon at 9/2
Kevin Harvick at 25/1 (BET365 - I couldn't resist)
Matt Kenseth at 8/1

Matchups:
Gordon over Stewart (OLY)
Rudd over JR (OLY)

Let's go racing .

 

[Myron]

D'oh! I looked at the field bet a million times and didn't pull the trigger. If Jr. was more like his father than he'd be in the winner's circle with Newman turned around. Kudos to him for playing it fair with Ryan. I'm sure in the long run it will work out better for him.

Huckleberry do you have any idea if they are going to credit you as a winner? Jeremy Mayfield won the Winston Open but Ryan Newman got in from the No Bull Sprint afterwards. Technically he was in from the Open although he didn't win that race. If they don't pay it out for you, you may want to take them up on it.

 

[Huckleberry]

WOW!!! What a great race....

WOW!!! What a great race....

If JR. wanted to, you are right Myron, he could have easily spun him out and taken the win. I still can't believe he didn't. He will WIN soooo many more points amongst all the WC drivers for doing that........His "daddy" would have never done that I don't think. He was clearly the fastest car at the end and CHOSE to race clean rather than win. PROPS TO JR.!!!!!!!!

Also, 5dimes had a distinctive difference between the "Winston Open Winner" and the "No Bull Sprint Winner" so I know that I lost on that bet.

In hindsight, I sure wish he would have continued underneath the 12 and spun him for my financial well being, but I'm (in a Nascar fan kinda way) sure glad he didn't.

The race didn't quite work out as I had hoped, but all in all, I think this sets us up pretty good for the 600 next week.....we saw WHO really has a good car here.............FWIW, I will be on the 6 car again next week.

As a matter of fact, I'll tell you guys that I will be on ALL Roush drivers in the 600. Get 'em early if you see value.

 

[djv]

Jr, just gain another 100,000 fans with that clean raceing. He got on him once, he held his own, and Jr let him alone. I have hunch 2 maybe 3 more laps he may have got him going to the outside.
Boy the 8, 12, 20, 48 and even the 6 look strong for the 600. I would say Mayfield to but I think he will fade. Tony with that front end screwed up was very good. You got to believe with out that he would have been more of a factor. One thing that can change a few things next week end. The weather. It gets hot and some others may come to the front.

 

[Huckleberry]

Myron...sorry about not answering your question about Mayfield. I played that locally here in LV. That number really stuck out after seeing what was available offshore.