NBA - April 8th
- Thread starter DZ
- Start date
One reason for the play on the Hawks is that I wanted to take advantage of a slight mispricing that I caught with one book. I didn't see any other book carrying 6.5 and nothing close to 220 on the ML. Another reason I am high on the Hawks tonight, despite having wrapped up the #1 seed in the East and the record for franchise wins in a single season, is that they should be highly motivated to do what they can to knock Brooklyn out of the playoffs. ATL will own a lottery pick in the upcoming draft should BKN not make the playoffs. More details here:
http://atlantahawks.blog.ajc.com/20...ery-pick-still-on-the-line-for-hawks-vs-nets/
http://hoopshabit.com/2015/04/05/atlanta-hawks-implications-brooklyn-nets-pick-swap/
With regards to the scheduling spot, not a single Hawks player logged more than 27 minutes in last night's blowout of PHX, so the typical back-to-back fatigue shouldn't be a huge factor tonight. In fact, it looks to me like the scheduling impact on line may be misguided. The obvious B2B scenario (and possible rest situation) is what the bookmakers and public will be looking at with an eye to the Hawks, but if you dig deeper you see that the last two games (yesterday and Sat. vs BKN) were blowouts, again, with no player logging over 27 minutes in either game. Prior to Saturday, the Hawks had three full days off and after tonight they can look forward to another day off before a home game on Friday. To me, that looks like a well-rested team. On the other hand, Brooklyn is playing their 4th game in 6 nights and their 6th game in 9 nights. Furthermore, they haven't had more than a day between games since March 12th and almost every one of those games required the starters to log heavy minutes, with the exception of a win @MIN on 3/16 and the blowout loss to ATL on Saturday. What's more, even though tonight is the 2nd of a 3 game home stand, the Portland game on Monday was tossed in as a make up game after the prior scheduled meeting was postponed due to snow, adding more to the fatigue factor of a team that's had to play every game like a must-win for the past month.
Concerning the Hawks, despite the troubling news coming out of NYC involving Pero and Thabo (both bench players), I would expect all hands to be on deck tonight in Brooklyn as far as the starters go, which includes Muscala, who has shown that he's very capable of contributing at the PF position in place of Millsap, leading the team in +/- last night with a +28 over 26 mins. Hopefully, Schroder won't be on a minutes cap tonight, but it doesn't seem like Teague's ankle issue has been bothering him the past few games either. Now, I don't know what will happen with the "crime scene obstructing" duo (it's possible it was all a big misunderstanding), but I have searched thoroughly and have found zero indication that Coach Budenholzer plans on resting any players tonight other than Millsap, who is taking his time to recover from a shoulder injury.
Looking at the remaining regular season schedule for the Hawks, this may be the last game of any significance until the playoffs and I would think that they will play with a sense of purpose to knock Brooklyn further down on the playoff ladder. I will point out that this is Brooklyn's last chance to beat these Hawks in the regular season, a scenario where I typically look to play on the team with revenge, but the Nets weren't really in contention in any of the prior three games with the average margin in the 2nd half of all of them being well over 10 points. If Brooklyn does manage to win tonight, I expect that it will at least be a close one.
http://atlantahawks.blog.ajc.com/20...ery-pick-still-on-the-line-for-hawks-vs-nets/
http://hoopshabit.com/2015/04/05/atlanta-hawks-implications-brooklyn-nets-pick-swap/
With regards to the scheduling spot, not a single Hawks player logged more than 27 minutes in last night's blowout of PHX, so the typical back-to-back fatigue shouldn't be a huge factor tonight. In fact, it looks to me like the scheduling impact on line may be misguided. The obvious B2B scenario (and possible rest situation) is what the bookmakers and public will be looking at with an eye to the Hawks, but if you dig deeper you see that the last two games (yesterday and Sat. vs BKN) were blowouts, again, with no player logging over 27 minutes in either game. Prior to Saturday, the Hawks had three full days off and after tonight they can look forward to another day off before a home game on Friday. To me, that looks like a well-rested team. On the other hand, Brooklyn is playing their 4th game in 6 nights and their 6th game in 9 nights. Furthermore, they haven't had more than a day between games since March 12th and almost every one of those games required the starters to log heavy minutes, with the exception of a win @MIN on 3/16 and the blowout loss to ATL on Saturday. What's more, even though tonight is the 2nd of a 3 game home stand, the Portland game on Monday was tossed in as a make up game after the prior scheduled meeting was postponed due to snow, adding more to the fatigue factor of a team that's had to play every game like a must-win for the past month.
Concerning the Hawks, despite the troubling news coming out of NYC involving Pero and Thabo (both bench players), I would expect all hands to be on deck tonight in Brooklyn as far as the starters go, which includes Muscala, who has shown that he's very capable of contributing at the PF position in place of Millsap, leading the team in +/- last night with a +28 over 26 mins. Hopefully, Schroder won't be on a minutes cap tonight, but it doesn't seem like Teague's ankle issue has been bothering him the past few games either. Now, I don't know what will happen with the "crime scene obstructing" duo (it's possible it was all a big misunderstanding), but I have searched thoroughly and have found zero indication that Coach Budenholzer plans on resting any players tonight other than Millsap, who is taking his time to recover from a shoulder injury.
Looking at the remaining regular season schedule for the Hawks, this may be the last game of any significance until the playoffs and I would think that they will play with a sense of purpose to knock Brooklyn further down on the playoff ladder. I will point out that this is Brooklyn's last chance to beat these Hawks in the regular season, a scenario where I typically look to play on the team with revenge, but the Nets weren't really in contention in any of the prior three games with the average margin in the 2nd half of all of them being well over 10 points. If Brooklyn does manage to win tonight, I expect that it will at least be a close one.
Simply put, this is a horrible spot for the Lakers. They went all out last night to try to beat their in-house rivals and fell short. Back to back heading into altitude with less than 20hrs of turnaround time. Denver is in a slide having lost their last 4 and 8 of their last 10, but they've had a three days off to prepare for this one and their coach is auditioning for his job. A nice situation for the home team and a bad one for the visitors.
DEN -10 x5
DEN -10 x5
Last edited:
You're welome TFresh.
I just saw the line drop down to 5.5 at a few spots and that seems to be the market consensus right now.
Update from Chris Vivlamore via Twitter:
"Antic and Sefolosha were arraigned shortly before 3 p.m. and released on their own recognizance."
No word on whether they'll play tonight, but one would assume they won't.
Who knows, though, it's the NBA :0002.
It looks like they will be without John Jenkins (illness), another bench player. Maybe the lack of bench depth will further the need for the starters to play big minutes tonight.
Grizz
Grizz
I'm looking at one more play tonight on Memphis. I like 4.5, but would love to get it at 4. Might wait for more news on the Randolph injury. Tough spot for the Pels in a must-win situation coming off the win last night vs GS at home. Memphis is coming off another blowout loss, their 4th in their last 6 games, but have had 3 days to get things right for this important matchup in which they will be trying to hold on to home court advantage in the first round from the charging Spurs and Clippers, who are trying to make a move in the standings.
Grizz
I'm looking at one more play tonight on Memphis. I like 4.5, but would love to get it at 4. Might wait for more news on the Randolph injury. Tough spot for the Pels in a must-win situation coming off the win last night vs GS at home. Memphis is coming off another blowout loss, their 4th in their last 6 games, but have had 3 days to get things right for this important matchup in which they will be trying to hold on to home court advantage in the first round from the charging Spurs and Clippers, who are trying to make a move in the standings.
-4 showing on MEM, but the Golden Nugget posted 3.5 about 15 minutes ago, so I'll wait to see if it goes down further. If I had to guess, Randolph and Green will be playing in this one with an eye towards Friday as a possible rest spot against the Jazz. Gonna start with this, since I don't see it dropping any lower and there are already signs of it getting bought back up at this number:
MEM -2 1H x2
MEM -2 1H x2
Think I'm going to hold off on playing the Grizzlies pregame and seek some value in-game instead.
Throwing this in for good measure:
WagerType
ARLAY (5 TEAMS)
Date: Team:
Apr 08 NBA [709] ATL HAWKS +5-110
Apr 08 NBA [711] BOS CELTICS -2-110
Apr 08 NBA [716] MEM GRIZZLIES -4-110
Apr 08 NBA [722] DEN NUGGETS -10-110
Apr 08 NBA [1718] 1H S.A. SPURS -3?-110
x0.5 to win x10
Have another 3-teamer open with Grizz and Nuggz for a larger amount, looking for one more leg.
Hawks line crashing down on news:
Throwing this in for good measure:
WagerType
ARLAY (5 TEAMS)Date: Team:
Apr 08 NBA [709] ATL HAWKS +5-110
Apr 08 NBA [711] BOS CELTICS -2-110
Apr 08 NBA [716] MEM GRIZZLIES -4-110
Apr 08 NBA [722] DEN NUGGETS -10-110
Apr 08 NBA [1718] 1H S.A. SPURS -3?-110
x0.5 to win x10
Have another 3-teamer open with Grizz and Nuggz for a larger amount, looking for one more leg.
Hawks line crashing down on news:
Also...
Think I'm going to hold off on playing the Grizzlies pregame and seek some value in-game instead.
Throwing this in for good measure:
WagerType
Date: Team:
Apr 08 NBA [709] ATL HAWKS +5-110
Apr 08 NBA [711] BOS CELTICS -2-110
Apr 08 NBA [716] MEM GRIZZLIES -4-110
Apr 08 NBA [722] DEN NUGGETS -10-110
Apr 08 NBA [1718] 1H S.A. SPURS -3?-110
x0.5 to win x10
Have another 3-teamer open with Grizz and Nuggz for a larger amount, looking for one more leg.
Hawks line crashing down on news:
Also...
Hope the Nuggets not gonna cost us the 5 teams par ...
GL and thank for the plays
I hear ya. They looked like shit for most of the 1H, but put together a nice little run to close. The fatigue should show up for the Lakers in the 2nd half. I doubt they can keep up with this pace playing b2b in altitude. -5 2H is tempting...
