nba finals....early thoughts
- Thread starter Gatorbait
- Start date
cuz you are on nj
why ask why
Of course I haven't bet a side yet and won't until near game time, but feel duncan and co. too strong. covering the line is a little different story now isn't it scott. seeing SA beat and covered many of the games vs LAL and DAL, you don't see it happening to jersey............pllllllllllllllease :nono:
why ask why
Of course I haven't bet a side yet and won't until near game time, but feel duncan and co. too strong. covering the line is a little different story now isn't it scott. seeing SA beat and covered many of the games vs LAL and DAL, you don't see it happening to jersey............pllllllllllllllease :nono:
Gatorbait said:cuz you are on nj
Of course I haven't bet a side yet and won't until near game time, but feel duncan and co. too strong. covering the line is a little different story now isn't it scott. seeing SA beat and covered many of the games vs LAL and DAL, you don't see it happening to jersey............pllllllllllllllease :nono:
......................................
Gator
I have not made a play on this game. Only that Mr Kaned guy would make a play this early.
When you think about it, NJ took care of Boston in 4. Boston won some games this year. NJ spanked the Number 1 seed Detroit in 4 games and they fired the coach. Cant discount that. NJ is well rested and alot of time to prepare.
If San Ant comes out thinking they are playing Dallas again. Could be big trouble in Texas with NJ getting the points. Still watching line movement I will get back to you.
KOD
think series will go 6-7 games and wouldn't be surprised by a nj win........
already played them +300
will hedge if necessary:nono:
already played them +300
will hedge if necessary:nono:
ahjoah said:
........................
ahjoah
how do you hedge on a play like that ?
how is the decision made to hedge ?
Is there a best time to do the hedging ?
and how much do you end up winning/ losing on a hedge ?
Can you explain that a little ?
thanks
KOD
What exactly is a Hedge?
is that like a edge
or does it mean play the other side for the same bet?
is that like a edge
or does it mean play the other side for the same bet?
......................................Mr. KANE said:What exactly is a Hedge?
is that like a edge
or does it mean play the other side for the same bet?
I will tell you one thing Kaned. It aint a row of bushs.
It has something to do with when you have made a play. And then after the play has been recorded you see that you have strong reason to believe the bet is going south. So you pull up your wagons in a circle, and bet the other side. Now exactly when you do that and how much can you minimize a loss is the question.
And if you are going to hedge then how many times do you go back and regret the hedge. This chit gets complicated.
KOD
"It ain't a row of bushes" -- good stuff, Scott....
At least you can buy it back at -300 the other way now. I find it a little odd that the Sours were -400 against the Mavs and are now just -300 against the Nets.
At least you can buy it back at -300 the other way now. I find it a little odd that the Sours were -400 against the Mavs and are now just -300 against the Nets.
To interject my 2 cents. One way to hedge a series bet is by taking the other side of your series bet in some individual game bets.
One year I was in a great position going into the Super Bowl having taken the Redskins for $100 to win it all back early in the regular season at 18-1 odds or something llike that. Well, they made it to the big game against Buffalo and were giving 9 to the Bills. I took the Bills+9 for enough dough ($500) that no matter who won the game I would still make a profit. This protected my Skins bet. As it turned out, Wash crushed Buff and I lost the 500 on Buffalo and collected the 1800 on Wash. If Buffalo had lost but still covered I would've won BOTH plays for 2300 while if Buffalo had won I would still have made 400. That was the perfect hedge...one that guarantees a win.
One year I was in a great position going into the Super Bowl having taken the Redskins for $100 to win it all back early in the regular season at 18-1 odds or something llike that. Well, they made it to the big game against Buffalo and were giving 9 to the Bills. I took the Bills+9 for enough dough ($500) that no matter who won the game I would still make a profit. This protected my Skins bet. As it turned out, Wash crushed Buff and I lost the 500 on Buffalo and collected the 1800 on Wash. If Buffalo had lost but still covered I would've won BOTH plays for 2300 while if Buffalo had won I would still have made 400. That was the perfect hedge...one that guarantees a win.
...............................ocelot said:
ocelot
Now that is good information and not what I was thinking a hedge was.
A hedge is a bet that guarantees a win. I was thinking a hedge was a bad thing. Meaning if your hedging your covering to try not to lose your ass, not to guarantee a win.
Aint that kinda like cheating ?
Explain a situation where you lose on a hedge please. How can you really screw up hedging ?
I am taking copius notes.
thanks
KOD
Scott, I am no expert on hedging but will try and respond; others will be more knowledgeable I am sure.
Normally, I believe it is true that hedging is used to protect against worst-case loss. In ahjoah's case that is likely what was meant.
So, ahjoah plays Nets 100 to get 300. Let's say after 1st three games Nets lead 2-1 but late in Game 3 Kidd suffers a season-ending injury. ahjoah concludes his series bet is likely to lose and so takes spurs for $50 in game 4 as a favorite. If Nets win, his series bet is looking very good at 3-1 and for a $55 cost he is still in good shape to win the series $300; if Spurs win and cover the $50 win helps offset the increasingly likely $100 series loss. The problem is if the Spurs win but DON'T cover in which case the 55$ loss gets piled on top of the likely 100$ series loss.
Another hedge would be to simply pay the big price and buy the Spurs to win the series. Say, ahjoah decides to do so after Kidd goes down in Game 3. He may get pretty decent odds on Spurs since they trail series 2-1. Suppose he gets SA at 225 to get 50.
Now if Spurs go on to win series he loses 50 overall (rather than original 100 he would've lost). If Nets somehow win he wins 75 (rather than original 300 he would've won).
There is an infinite number of ways to hedge though it almost always costs something (like insurance). The Super Bowl example given yesterday was a rare opportunity in which I could protect myself against any chance of loss and in fact guarantee a profit. That's the only time I've been in that position. That was nice.
Normally, I believe it is true that hedging is used to protect against worst-case loss. In ahjoah's case that is likely what was meant.
So, ahjoah plays Nets 100 to get 300. Let's say after 1st three games Nets lead 2-1 but late in Game 3 Kidd suffers a season-ending injury. ahjoah concludes his series bet is likely to lose and so takes spurs for $50 in game 4 as a favorite. If Nets win, his series bet is looking very good at 3-1 and for a $55 cost he is still in good shape to win the series $300; if Spurs win and cover the $50 win helps offset the increasingly likely $100 series loss. The problem is if the Spurs win but DON'T cover in which case the 55$ loss gets piled on top of the likely 100$ series loss.
Another hedge would be to simply pay the big price and buy the Spurs to win the series. Say, ahjoah decides to do so after Kidd goes down in Game 3. He may get pretty decent odds on Spurs since they trail series 2-1. Suppose he gets SA at 225 to get 50.
Now if Spurs go on to win series he loses 50 overall (rather than original 100 he would've lost). If Nets somehow win he wins 75 (rather than original 300 he would've won).
There is an infinite number of ways to hedge though it almost always costs something (like insurance). The Super Bowl example given yesterday was a rare opportunity in which I could protect myself against any chance of loss and in fact guarantee a profit. That's the only time I've been in that position. That was nice.
caine and lightning =
na, but I really like my avator..........bout' as much as I like SA -6
SA -6 10*
just starting to peek at the o/u
na, but I really like my avator..........bout' as much as I like SA -6
SA -6 10*
just starting to peek at the o/u
hedging. about six yrs. ago i had the patriots @ a pk (2nd game of a 2 game teaser) on mnf. i could have hedged the bet by betting the jets +6 that night. well , i chose not to, and i lost a 1000 teaser(don't play teasers anymore). if a hedge can guarantee a win -good for you.
