NBA FRI 01222010-Early Thoughts and Value Hunting

[40seven]

TGIF!!!

Size does matter!! Big Cards lots to pick from.

Value all over the board.

BIG POD Potential Knicks +!!!:00hour

Will post more later.

2-0 last night!!

 

[Truckin']

40 can you tell me in what forum this Will bet contest is?

I know its across the street but where ?

I can't find it :shrug:

Thx

 

[BillyBatts]

Truckin...

Truckin...

he goes by "willbetanything"


It's an nba play of the day contest for the title of the thread, in the forum.

 

[JBrilman]

PHI +3
MINN +3.5
WAS +3
NY +5.5

all home dogs catching very little public support! Keep an eye on these today as the numbers should only get better for us!!

Also looking at

PHO -6.5
TOR -7.5

 

[BillyBatts]

Locked in

Locked in

One play so far :director:

Heat -3
Miami always bounces back well from a blowout defeat.
Heat are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.

Be back with more laterkurby

 

[BillyBatts]

PHI +3
MINN +3.5
WAS +3
NY +5.5

all home dogs catching very little public support! Keep an eye on these today as the numbers should only get better for us!!

Also looking at

PHO -6.5
TOR -7.5

Looking at this one as well. Bucks are 2-0 SU this year Vs Raps, but Toronto opens as a 7 pt fave??:shrug: Fishy fishy.
One more thing to note in this game. It's the 2nd game of a home in home between these 2 teams, where after the 1st goes over, the 2nd seems to go under. The refs in this game have worked as a crew 2 other times this yr, both games going under with an avg final total of only 160 :scared
Refs are a combined 8-17 over/under on totals 205+

 

[40seven]

40 can you tell me in what forum this Will bet contest is?

I know its across the street but where ?

I can't find it :shrug:

Thx

Forty7 across BTW NBA Play of the Day It is on my page

 

[40seven]

Love these plays

Love these plays

PHI +3
MINN +3.5
WAS +3
NY +5.5

all home dogs catching very little public support! Keep an eye on these today as the numbers should only get better for us!!

Also looking at

PHO -6.5
TOR -7.5

My list is your list, but lets narrow it down.

 

[40seven]

IMHO

IMHO

I need to have 2 or 3 plays MAX and the list is big.

First I have eliminated the Wiz, I do not playing them the are Helter Skelter some times and I actually show them fairly split and alot of smart guys are on the Heat, not to be confused with Wise guys or touts.

The 76ers I need to study more the game fits me but they let me down last time so I want to look more closely

Twolves fits and looks good to me, my only concern is it has little action.


The Knicks OK the hottest game on the board, 98% on LAL and little line movement. too good to be true. I may play the Knicks on the ML+210.

Other Games of interest that I will not play but the old me would have, 'cus I played too many. I like The Celtics, The Suns, The Raptors and Thunder.

 

[easterntimezone]

my only concern is it has little action.

40 -

What service are you using for monitoring this?

Thanks.

 

[40seven]

Ax turned me on to it

Ax turned me on to it

40 -

What service are you using for monitoring this?

Thanks.

Pregame.com under numbers

 

[JBrilman]

I need to have 2 or 3 plays MAX and the list is big.

First I have eliminated the Wiz, I do not playing them the are Helter Skelter some times and I actually show them fairly split and alot of smart guys are on the Heat, not to be confused with Wise guys or touts.

The 76ers I need to study more the game fits me but they let me down last time so I want to look more closely

Twolves fits and looks good to me, my only concern is it has little action.


The Knicks OK the hottest game on the board, 98% on LAL and little line movement. too good to be true. I may play the Knicks on the ML+210.

Other Games of interest that I will not play but the old me would have, 'cus I played too many. I like The Celtics, The Suns, The Raptors and Thunder.

Looks like you narrowed it down. Billys stat on Miami alone is enough to keep me off the Wizards and I agree with you on Philly they are so inconsistent.

List is getting shorter. I like the 2 faves I listed before will do some digging and be back around 230-3.

 

[BillyBatts]

I agree

I agree

I'm leaning Suns and Raps as well, but I'd be careful with the Celts, guys. I know Garnett is coming back, and Roy is doubtful, but I think they've adjusted the line way too much for these 2 issues. It seemd when a team loses its star for the 1st couple of games, they rally around that and play tougher as a team. Just my 2 cents. Will be back with final plays in about 30 minutes.

Also leaning Twolves, Charlotte and over and maybe Memphis. :shrug:

 

[easterntimezone]

I'm leaning Suns

Think they're still awfully fragile as a team - temporary salve in beating New Jersey handily, but the Nets are pretty much this year's punching bag, especially for teams down on their luck. They struggle w/ more athletic units, led by decent points - Chicago isn't setting anyone aflame, but they are younger and coming off 2 dispiriting losses to Golden State and the Clippers, could be a very live 'dog here albeit a visiting one.

 

[easterntimezone]

under numbers

40 -

Thanks for the reply; greatly appreciated - interesting to note sample size (which can skew numbers extremely if small enough) - do think that w/ such a large card, some square wagers (reflecting very large or small %ages) will be offset by sharp ones w/ Vegas intending to ca$h in on other less definitive contests here and there.

 

[BillyBatts]

No play

No play

Think they're still awfully fragile as a team - temporary salve in beating New Jersey handily, but the Nets are pretty much this year's punching bag, especially for teams down on their luck. They struggle w/ more athletic units, led by decent points - Chicago isn't setting anyone aflame, but they are younger and coming off 2 dispiriting losses to Golden State and the Clippers, could be a very live 'dog here albeit a visiting one.

Thanks for the advice, but after looking deeper into, it's a no play for me..
Bulls are 5-1 last 6 as a dog, and 9-4 last 13 overall

Where Suns are only 2-5 last 7 overall, although they do beat up on bad teams as home, but I think the Bulls play is better recently than thier record indicates.
Suns are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Suns are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.


Best of luck to ya. Going to lock in my final plays and brb to post.

 

[BillyBatts]

Added plays

Added plays

One play so far :director:

Heat -3 PODMiami always bounces back well from a blowout defeat.
Heat are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.

Be back with more laterkurby

ADDING

T'Wolves +3.5
Raps -7.5
Memphis-3.5

Good luck tonight fellas :toast:

 

[40seven]

That is why I brought it up

That is why I brought it up

40 -

Thanks for the reply; greatly appreciated - interesting to note sample size (which can skew numbers extremely if small enough) - do think that w/ such a large card, some square wagers (reflecting very large or small %ages) will be offset by sharp ones w/ Vegas intending to ca$h in on other less definitive contests here and there.

However I usually treat this as raw and equal data without reading much in to the data.

But since playing Home Dogs where the Public is on the Fav in excess of 70%, I have done very well.

Additionally, when playing I will not play a big Pub Pick in the NBA. As I have tested it does not work in all sports.

Last, I have enjoyed taking more than giving points for about a month, Last night being an exception.

 

[40seven]

Talk Sat....

Talk Sat....

Taking my Wife out so I will miss the action....

Crazy but it still difficult to pull the trigger when playing the Twolves, Knicks and alike :scared

But it is done Knicks and Twolves with a lttle on the 76ers.


God Bless

47

 

[easterntimezone]

Last, I have enjoyed taking more than giving points for about a month, Last night being an exception.

W/ 2 games on last night's slate, the numbers provided a "truer" representation of how the $ was wagered - in so far that the public favs really were public favs and not just b/c of a limited sample size supplying a less-than-genuine reflection of public sentiment. Just something to keep in mind concerning small and large cards...

Thanks again 40 - best of luck to you and everyone else tonight.