NBA GOY

[grandpa]

Houston had the pedal to the medal last week at Toyota Center, exposing GSt inability to defend the 3 as the Rockets tied the NBA record for 3's made with 23. It got interesting late when Coach Mark Jackson resorted to intentional fouls, allowing Houston to hit 140, but not break the record.
The road trip got worse after, with more blowout losses for Warriors.
Jackson did not back down from his actions, referring to himself as "old school."

It would be tempting to point out the miserable trip as a reason to fade GSt, but Houston does not fare well on road v the West, and here are some other tidbits that make me feel that revenge is imminent.

1) GSt is 9-0 ATS as a favorite when seeking revenge for a double digit road loss
2) GSt has won the last game before the All-Star break the last 9 seasons.
3)Kevin McHale is 1-15 ATS in road games after allowing 100+ points in 2 straight games as coach of Houston
4) Houston is 6-21 ATS in road games after a game in which they failed to cover the last two seasons
5) James Harden is likely out tonight.

I'm pushing all in on :
GSt ML -200
GSt -4.5

Btw: I am a lifelong Rockets fan. It's all business tonight

 

[8)ELVIS(8]

lets do tha damn th:0003 ang !

 

[SixFive]

The Warriors jumped off the sheet for me too. Kinda scares me it looks so good. :thinking:

GL with it; I think it's a winner.

 

[grandpa]

They've had this one circled for a week ( me too). I honestly think it carried over into Dallas and Memphis blowouts. I thought Jackson's response was classless and childish, and they've paid for it.
Houston handles the East ok on the road, but the West presents problems for them. And I just feel Jackson has focused a lot ( too much) on winning this game.
The Warriors season has turned ugly fast, after surprising everyone out of the gate.
Tonight represents an opportunity to right things, at least in the short term

 

[Jord20]

GL

 

[pt101]

Love it., GL.

I think W's try for the 3-record themselves tonight. IMO, I don't think this game looks easy at all. -4.5/-200, there are many that believe the W's aren't 2-1 favs over the Rockets. Without the revenge factor, I think -135 to -150 is more reasonable, which would make it a 2.5-3-5 spread.

 

[grandpa]

GSt should not be favored by more than 1.5/2.
With no Harden, slightly more. But I factored all 5 items above in post 1.
Definitely no value in these lines. Just playing the notion

 

[grandpa]

Well the good news is I know nobody here would have read this and run out and bet Warrriors because of this .
And the better news ( for me) is I was able to play Rockets for 2H at -3.5 and recoup my losses to break even.
Bottom line: I should have known better. By now. All the trends pointed to a GSt win, but the mental state of GSt right now is not good. And it is an extension of their coach, who completely mishandled the 31-point blowout last Tuesday. He responded with losses of 25, 26, and 6, all the while vowing to get even.
I bought into it, pure and simple, opting to overlook the fact that the Rockets are a bad matchup for them, and that they would respond to the cheap fouling at the end of last game.
I have been doing this for 36 years, and at this point I still am guilty of listening to too many "experts" and not trusting both my instinct and learned knowledge.
Shame on me.
As I said, nobody here listens to me, and that is good.
So I'm going on the shelf for rehab.
See y'all soon

 

[ivabign]

I lost 2K because of your analysis!!

Just kidding.

Although I did the same on the 2nd half line, but got +3.5 for Houston 2nd half. Is that a typo?

Cheers

 

[HighFlyingKilla]

I was thinking the same thing and waiting all week for it.

One thing that scared me about this game was it being the 1st game home after a long road trip.

I should have bought out too, good luck next game.

 

[heleanth]

Love these guys that post a GOY, then come back on and brag how they didn't lose any money. Wow. Somehow, they manage to not post how they are playing the other way at half time. Nice.

 

[cleatus]

Love these guys that post a GOY, then come back on and brag how they didn't lose any money. Wow. Somehow, they manage to not post how they are playing the other way at half time. Nice.

True. Wouldn't that have been a GOY halftime bet to be able to cover and not lose any money?

 

[the addict]

Good luck next time papa



You need not worry, we all post many losers around here buddy....you are solid and will bounce back fine.


Gl to ya moving forward...