Hi Everyone ..
hope the season is going well for all. I had reached my target of 5 grand and cashed out.
This is a document i had typed up a month and half ago but my laptop screen conked off and i had to wait till i got it back.
I am not making any more plays but some of the angles are doing well.
Hope it helps.
Cheers !!!
Spock
****************************************************
Betting Angles for Second Half Bets for NBA
- by Spock
I am sitting at the Central Terminal at La Guardia Airport in New York City and thought should type up something for half time plays in basketball. This document is to help make plays at half time in NBA. I have found from experience that betting on half time plays can be very profitable. It is hard to know how teams are playing before the game starts but @ half time from the stats and flow of the game one can have a fair idea as to how the game is progressing. Hopefully it will help someone and please give feedback as to the angles we can refine for beating the book and hitting our plays @ a higher %. The following angles are something to keep in mind among others when making a decision on a half time play.
I have not read about half time betting angles anywhere so all the points are from personal experience. I do remember Nolan Dalla had angles up on his web page last year so hopefully he will put them up again this year. Most of the angles are with totals in mind since I usually bet only totals.
I briefly classify games into type broad types:
1. Games which are close @ half time or I expect to be close @ end of game.
2. Games, which are going to reach blowout status.
Certain factors to look @ here:
a. The shooting percentage for both teams.
b. The number of fouls and free throws attempted by each team
c. Fouls to key players
d. Three point shooting especially for teams which attempt a lot of three pointers ? Boston, Knicks, Dallas come to mind.
e. Play of key players in the half
f. General flow of the game. Number of field goals attempted will give a fair idea of how fast the game is progressing.
Some betting Angles:
High scoring first half
If both teams shoot well in the first half the percentages are going to drop in the second half. There are very few teams if at all that can maintain 60% shooting throughout the game.
Low scoring first half
If one or both teams had shot extremely bad during the first half usually they come out much stronger after the second half.
Favorite down @ the half
If the favorite is down at the half and you want to take the favorite please bet on them for the third Quarter. They will come out strong. But if they grab a huge lead then they will rest the players in the fourth Quarter and the losing team will outscore them. This angle is particularly strong if the favorite is playing @ home. This angle is even more profitable for the third Quarter.
E.g. I had bet ?4 on the Hornets on Friday Jan 17 for the second half. The Hornets were leading by 4 at the half against the Bulls. I had actually contemplated making the bet for ?2 Hornets for the third Q. As things would turn out Hornets outscored Bulls by 12 in the third Q and had a 16 point lead going into the fourth. They started missing lot of shots, got complacent and Bulls outscored them by 11 points with Hornets missing a lot of free throws down the stretch. Cost us the win.
Taking the dog + points for the fourth Quarter
I have not tracked the results but if you take the dog + points for the fourth quarter the results are very attractive. One of the most important factors which comes into effect here is the attitude of the players. I think from player?s pride point of view most don?t care if they win by 20 points or 30 points but all of them do care if they LOSE by 20 points or 30 points. Also with a huge lead players tend to get complacent and not play with as much intensity as they would have played earlier in the game.
The fav usually come out strong in the third and build up an even larger lead than @ the half. Then the starters come out but the losing team does not take out its starters at the same time as they want to reduce the deficit of the loss.
There are certain teams one should take in the fourth Quarter namely Denver, Toronto, Memphis and Cleveland. These losing teams are money makers for the fourth quarter. Denver in particular comes out really strong in the second half. So does Memphis. Memphis usually plays a horrible first half ? get into a hole and then dig themselves out of it with good play in the second half. Also if they are losing by a lot the other team bench players are no match against Memphis starters in the fourth Q.
Taking the Under in a blowout game
If the game is expected to be a blowout take the under in the second half. This angle is very profitable as the scoring usually drops when the starters come out. In addition, in the last 5-6 minutes of the game the zebra?s are reluctant to call fouls. I think this angle was put up by Nolan Dalla last year.
Taking the Over in a close game
If the game is going to be close and both teams are shooting decently the Over in the second half is a good bet since this gives us the advantage of free shots with the clock stopped @ the end. Something which has to be seen is where the game is going on. In a close game teams like the Pistons [especially @ home] turn up the defense intensity.
I have not researched this but have noticed that teams like Utah draw a lot of fouls in the second half. Also keep a watch on Phoenix. This team is really coming together and their scoring has improved from 90 points a game to 96 or so on average. One of the key factors I look @ is how many points Marion has scored in the half. I have always noticed that when Shawn Marion has 5-6 points in the first half he WILL come out gunning in the second half.
Take the Under for struggling teams
For teams which struggle to put up points in the game the under is usually a good bet. Teams which fit this criteria are the Sonics and Raptors among others. Both these teams have a hard time scoring points in the second half due to lack of personnel [as of Jan 2003]
Take the Under for teams over dependent on one or two players
For teams like Boston who rely on scoring of two people ? Walker & Pierce, if these two people have the most points in the first half bet the under. They WILL cool down [law of averages] in the second half.
Take the Under for the fourth quarter for teams which run down the clock
A very big factor, which I have noticed due to watching some games on TV when I am in NYC, is the time wasted by teams when they have a lead. One of the biggest factors why Dallas Under is hitting at so high a % is because Dallas is one of the best @ running time off the clock when they have a lead. Also Dallas bench is just horrible when it comes to scoring points. I have seen Nick Van Excel hold onto the ball for 18 seconds and then attempt a play with 6 seconds left in every possession they had for last 5 minutes. I think Dallas first half may be hitting frequently but game does slow down in the fourth Q. So a good bet in my opinion is the under for the fourth Q. This also ties in with the blowout theory.
Am resuming writing the document @ 35000 feet up in the air in an American Airlines flight. It is amazing how things seem very clear to the brain so high up.
# Tie these factors in with the historical performance of the two teams. Some teams tend to play more freely with some teams and a more defensive slower game with other teams. The greatest obstacle in betting on second half plays in the NBA is the small time gap you have to decide on a play. Also on certain days like Friday there will be 3 ? 4 games whose half time will overlap each other. I have noticed that certain books like v-wager have the totals line half a point lower than most others [no-all thanx]. This is good when you want to bet the over. I do not have to tell anyone how important half a point an be.
Good luck and lets all make money and beat the book.
hope the season is going well for all. I had reached my target of 5 grand and cashed out.
This is a document i had typed up a month and half ago but my laptop screen conked off and i had to wait till i got it back.
I am not making any more plays but some of the angles are doing well.
Hope it helps.
Cheers !!!
Spock
****************************************************
Betting Angles for Second Half Bets for NBA
- by Spock
I am sitting at the Central Terminal at La Guardia Airport in New York City and thought should type up something for half time plays in basketball. This document is to help make plays at half time in NBA. I have found from experience that betting on half time plays can be very profitable. It is hard to know how teams are playing before the game starts but @ half time from the stats and flow of the game one can have a fair idea as to how the game is progressing. Hopefully it will help someone and please give feedback as to the angles we can refine for beating the book and hitting our plays @ a higher %. The following angles are something to keep in mind among others when making a decision on a half time play.
I have not read about half time betting angles anywhere so all the points are from personal experience. I do remember Nolan Dalla had angles up on his web page last year so hopefully he will put them up again this year. Most of the angles are with totals in mind since I usually bet only totals.
I briefly classify games into type broad types:
1. Games which are close @ half time or I expect to be close @ end of game.
2. Games, which are going to reach blowout status.
Certain factors to look @ here:
a. The shooting percentage for both teams.
b. The number of fouls and free throws attempted by each team
c. Fouls to key players
d. Three point shooting especially for teams which attempt a lot of three pointers ? Boston, Knicks, Dallas come to mind.
e. Play of key players in the half
f. General flow of the game. Number of field goals attempted will give a fair idea of how fast the game is progressing.
Some betting Angles:
High scoring first half
If both teams shoot well in the first half the percentages are going to drop in the second half. There are very few teams if at all that can maintain 60% shooting throughout the game.
Low scoring first half
If one or both teams had shot extremely bad during the first half usually they come out much stronger after the second half.
Favorite down @ the half
If the favorite is down at the half and you want to take the favorite please bet on them for the third Quarter. They will come out strong. But if they grab a huge lead then they will rest the players in the fourth Quarter and the losing team will outscore them. This angle is particularly strong if the favorite is playing @ home. This angle is even more profitable for the third Quarter.
E.g. I had bet ?4 on the Hornets on Friday Jan 17 for the second half. The Hornets were leading by 4 at the half against the Bulls. I had actually contemplated making the bet for ?2 Hornets for the third Q. As things would turn out Hornets outscored Bulls by 12 in the third Q and had a 16 point lead going into the fourth. They started missing lot of shots, got complacent and Bulls outscored them by 11 points with Hornets missing a lot of free throws down the stretch. Cost us the win.
Taking the dog + points for the fourth Quarter
I have not tracked the results but if you take the dog + points for the fourth quarter the results are very attractive. One of the most important factors which comes into effect here is the attitude of the players. I think from player?s pride point of view most don?t care if they win by 20 points or 30 points but all of them do care if they LOSE by 20 points or 30 points. Also with a huge lead players tend to get complacent and not play with as much intensity as they would have played earlier in the game.
The fav usually come out strong in the third and build up an even larger lead than @ the half. Then the starters come out but the losing team does not take out its starters at the same time as they want to reduce the deficit of the loss.
There are certain teams one should take in the fourth Quarter namely Denver, Toronto, Memphis and Cleveland. These losing teams are money makers for the fourth quarter. Denver in particular comes out really strong in the second half. So does Memphis. Memphis usually plays a horrible first half ? get into a hole and then dig themselves out of it with good play in the second half. Also if they are losing by a lot the other team bench players are no match against Memphis starters in the fourth Q.
Taking the Under in a blowout game
If the game is expected to be a blowout take the under in the second half. This angle is very profitable as the scoring usually drops when the starters come out. In addition, in the last 5-6 minutes of the game the zebra?s are reluctant to call fouls. I think this angle was put up by Nolan Dalla last year.
Taking the Over in a close game
If the game is going to be close and both teams are shooting decently the Over in the second half is a good bet since this gives us the advantage of free shots with the clock stopped @ the end. Something which has to be seen is where the game is going on. In a close game teams like the Pistons [especially @ home] turn up the defense intensity.
I have not researched this but have noticed that teams like Utah draw a lot of fouls in the second half. Also keep a watch on Phoenix. This team is really coming together and their scoring has improved from 90 points a game to 96 or so on average. One of the key factors I look @ is how many points Marion has scored in the half. I have always noticed that when Shawn Marion has 5-6 points in the first half he WILL come out gunning in the second half.
Take the Under for struggling teams
For teams which struggle to put up points in the game the under is usually a good bet. Teams which fit this criteria are the Sonics and Raptors among others. Both these teams have a hard time scoring points in the second half due to lack of personnel [as of Jan 2003]
Take the Under for teams over dependent on one or two players
For teams like Boston who rely on scoring of two people ? Walker & Pierce, if these two people have the most points in the first half bet the under. They WILL cool down [law of averages] in the second half.
Take the Under for the fourth quarter for teams which run down the clock
A very big factor, which I have noticed due to watching some games on TV when I am in NYC, is the time wasted by teams when they have a lead. One of the biggest factors why Dallas Under is hitting at so high a % is because Dallas is one of the best @ running time off the clock when they have a lead. Also Dallas bench is just horrible when it comes to scoring points. I have seen Nick Van Excel hold onto the ball for 18 seconds and then attempt a play with 6 seconds left in every possession they had for last 5 minutes. I think Dallas first half may be hitting frequently but game does slow down in the fourth Q. So a good bet in my opinion is the under for the fourth Q. This also ties in with the blowout theory.
Am resuming writing the document @ 35000 feet up in the air in an American Airlines flight. It is amazing how things seem very clear to the brain so high up.
# Tie these factors in with the historical performance of the two teams. Some teams tend to play more freely with some teams and a more defensive slower game with other teams. The greatest obstacle in betting on second half plays in the NBA is the small time gap you have to decide on a play. Also on certain days like Friday there will be 3 ? 4 games whose half time will overlap each other. I have noticed that certain books like v-wager have the totals line half a point lower than most others [no-all thanx]. This is good when you want to bet the over. I do not have to tell anyone how important half a point an be.
Good luck and lets all make money and beat the book.
