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DZ

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Think I?ll make this a season long thread. Live bets only.

Staring with...
PHI/BOS ov191.5 -120 3x


At this stage I would bet this up to 195.5, maybe some value at halftime...let?s see.

gl
 

DZ

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2H total opened 104.5, closed 105.5 and 106 at bookmaker... should tell you all you need to know.
 

DZ

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Eyeing a play on the live total in the late game. Opened 238, closed 242.5. Pace should pick up here to close the first half. Currently seeing 238.5, I?m eyeing something south of 235 with a max bet on 232 or better.
 

DZ

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Lets root for this margin to stay above 6 by the half. It will set up for a nice 2H play on the Warriors.
 

Old School

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GS-8

what ya think DZ?

they usually run the bad team out of the building..

but this is the Bucks..I'm not up on their road prowess
 

DZ

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GS-8

what ya think DZ?

they usually run the bad team out of the building..

but this is the Bucks..I'm not up on their road prowess

Bucks are the worst team on the road by 2H margin, by a lot. GS without Dray struggling to defend Giannis. Expect the scoring to continue although I can?t play the 2H total as it sits. I like GS +5 or better for the game.
 

Old School

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Bucks are the worst team on the road by 2H margin, by a lot. GS without Dray struggling to defend Giannis. Expect the scoring to continue although I can?t play the 2H total as it sits. I like GS +5 or better for the game.


thanks DZ...
 

DZ

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Sorry, I should rephrase that. They are the worst team in the 2nd half on th road when comparing home/road margin splits. They are the 5th worst team in the 2nd half on the road, yes small sample size, but consistent, suggesting they are having trouble closing out games away. No doubt Warriors recognize a formidable opponent here and won?t be sleeping on them in the 2nd half. GS avg 2H margin +6.8 at home, +4.8 overall.
 

DZ

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Also, forgot to mention the Bucks are third worst in the league by 3rd qtr margin while GS has been the best team in the 3rd qtr at seasons end consistently and by a wide margin year after year with this superstars group.
 

DZ

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Took em here...

GS +7.5 (-120) LIVE 3x


Expect the margin to be within 3 or 4 by the start of the 4th
 

DZ

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Yikes. Sorry OS. Still plenty of game left but poor timing on my part.
 

DZ

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Ok they appear to have righted the ship. This should be the largest margin I?d get in with live betting now if anyone hasn?t yet.
 

DZ

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Should have focused on the live total in last nights bucks-warriors matchup, rather than predicting a GS comeback.

Right now, I'm focused on the televised BOS-UTA matchup. In this new age of high-scoring NBA games, when a total opens at 210 and gets bet down to 204, that will always get my attention. I do think the Celtics cohesiveness on defense is better without Kyrie, who is out tonight. I also don't think Stevens wants his guys playing in a fast-paced game playing on the 2nd leg of a back-to-back in the altitude of SLC, especially after a long drawn-out game in PHX which required a huge effort to come back from a large DD deficit late in an OT victory. Right now, these teams are on pace to go over the closing number, so I'm targeting a live total of 212 or better to go under.
 
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