NBA MON 112309 early thoughts - value hunting

[40seven]

A new week!

 

[40seven]

Shallow board for a Monday.

Shallow board for a Monday.

Just getting my bearings....

Torn on the Bulls and Blazers.


I believe the Blazers win but the Bulls have an easy cover....

More later

 

[axp59]

Here ae the games I like tonight:

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 325pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=433 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 325pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 15835" width=433><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 325pt; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17 width=433>[701] SACRAMENTO +5?</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>[702] TOTAL u206?</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>(SACRAMENTO vrs MEMPHIS)</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>[706] TOTAL u185</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>(CHICAGO vrs PORTLAND)</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>[708] TOTAL u191?</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>(MINNESOTA vrs LA CLIPPERS)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[pkkingster15]

Ax,
Have you already locked those in?

I'll be back in a couple hours with my reads, as I am just starting looking at them right now.

 

[axp59]

Ax,
Have you already locked those in?

I'll be back in a couple hours with my reads, as I am just starting looking at them right now.

I've locked the top 3 and waiting on the MIN/LAC to move a little more for some value. All action only.

BOL

 

[ChumpChange]

Good Morning Gentlemen ...

I locked in under 206.5 in the Sac / Memp game ... the SA / Milw game is too close a call ... and I eliminated the other two games as under the total plays.

So far this young NBA season ... over the total has hit 80 times for 43.7% ... under the total has hit 103 times for 56.3%

The top 5 referees involved in games going over the total are ... Fraher, Salvatore, Poole, Callahan and Malloy ... they "let 'em play and run and gun" .

The last 30 days of the Survivor Pool across the street, I am 25-4-1 ( 86% ) and currently on a 11 game streak !!!:director:

GOOD LUCK TO ALL TODAY !!!

 

[axp59]

The last 30 days of the Survivor Pool across the street, I am 25-4-1 ( 86% ) and currently on a 11 game streak !!!:director:
GOOD LUCK TO ALL TODAY !!!

Impressive numbers. Keep it HOT Chump. :00hour

 

[ChumpChange]

Impressive numbers. Keep it HOT Chump. :00hour

Thanks AX ... I failed to memtion that I'm down 15 units so far this season in the NFL ... haven't had a winning football season since Otto Graham was the Browns QB !!! Hope you enjoyed the weekend with your son in town.

 

[LookKaPyPy]

Why the love for under in Grizz game ? They have the worst backcourt defense and opposing guards are at the most efficient when playing against them, which means that not only both Udrih and Evans are projected to have average nights, but there is a realistic chance they (or one) will do better than average. Nocioni can still score from behind the arc and should be counted as possible 3p danger and Kings do shoot a decent amount of treys.
On the other side there are legit scoring options in Mayo, Gay, Randolph and Gasol and Kings do give up points in the paint.

I have this one something like 110-107... :shrug:

 

[40seven]

What is the Public doing?

What is the Public doing?

Does anyone have good numbers on the Public percentages?

 

[JBrilman]

Good Morning Gentlemen ...

the SA / Milw game is too close a call ...

Haven't played a single NBA game yet (almost pulled the trigger on the Lakers last night but had such a nice day in NFL I didn't push my luck) but the UNDER here really caught my eye...

Hit a 2 team NFL parlay for $300 yesterday, a 3 teamer for $200 and had $100 on a 4 teamer that had GB push at -6 to turn into another $100 3 teamer for a total of $2600 profit from $600 in bets...

What a day!! :00hour

 

[axp59]

Does anyone have good numbers on the Public percentages?

Public POD so far

CHI +7 and CHI/POR O184

 

[Ools]

Public POD so far

CHI +7 and CHI/POR O184

Somebody is hitting the under here since the # has fallen - took under at 184.5 thirty minutes ago - down to 184...and your early # was 185.??:shrug:

 

[arabmoney]

hey ax , u like the bulls

 

[axp59]

Somebody is hitting the under here since the # has fallen - took under at 184.5 thirty minutes ago - down to 184...and your early # was 185.??:shrug:

I was thinking the same thing. There's some smart/sharp money on the Under. The breakdown right now is 82%-18% on the Over.

 

[axp59]

hey ax , u like the bulls

Not a big fan of a CHI play in this spot. I wasn't really sold when they opened +8.5. The public seems to like this one alot. I look at the current 7 and the 8.5 as essetially the same number value-wise. For me, it boils down to not being enough to play CHI and too much to play POR.

BOL

 

[ChumpChange]

Haven't played a single NBA game yet (almost pulled the trigger on the Lakers last night but had such a nice day in NFL I didn't push my luck) but the UNDER here really caught my eye...

Hit a 2 team NFL parlay for $300 yesterday, a 3 teamer for $200 and had $100 on a 4 teamer that had GB push at -6 to turn into another $100 3 teamer for a total of $2600 profit from $600 in bets...

What a day!! :00hour

GREAT DAY BRIL .....

Winning cash is a good thing ... Yogi Berra says cash is just like money !!!

 

[ChumpChange]

It's strange to not see SA and Cleveland on top of the defensive stats yet this year ... they have been replaced by Portland and Charlotte ... and OKC is not far behind !!!

 

[Joe_Vienna]

Leans

Kings@Grizzlies U206.5
Bulls@Blazers O184

 

[easterntimezone]

I've locked the top 3 and waiting on the MIN/LAC to move a little more for some value. All action only.

BOL

Ax -

How little/much movement would compel you to act on the Minnesota/Clippers total?

Also, when factoring in the SDQL data for a game involving the Kings, would you chuck out previous years' numbers since it's a new coach w/ an especially important new principal in Tyreke Evans and just focus on the games thus far this season?

Thanks as always.