NBA Monday - Another day, a few nickel plays. With thoughts.

zealot

Vegas res
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Dec 1, 2010
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Another solid card today in the NBA, in my opinion! Lots of games with tasty trends to pay attention to.

21-10 +$3,410 over the last week. This is the time of the season where we start making real cash!

*Nickel play inside* First up, Bobbies v the Irish in Boston. This is the first time all season that the Celtics are laying double digit points. On paper it's with good reason because the Bobcats blow. However, the Celtics aren't epic either. The Green are hot, at the moment, with a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS record their last five. And that 1 ATS loss was by half a point. Point is this: Celtics are streaking right now and while I'm not stoked anytime I put money on the Bobcats, this is a good spot to take the double digit dog. I also like the over in this spot! Charlotte's PF/PA is 96/104 and Boston's PF/PA is 95/96. The total is at only 189. Good value in the first half as well. Bobbies 1H and full game and 1H and full game over.

Second up, Hawks v the Bulls in Chicago. The total is the play in this game to me. Both teams combined are 31-39 O/U this season. The fact that both of these teams have been scoring a lot of points in their last 5 games makes this low total even tastier for me. Atlanta is 11-6 Under on the road this season. Chicago is 6-1 Under in a home game where where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points. 6-1!? That's a nice trend. Hawks/Bulls under.

*Nickel play inside* Third up, Clipps v the Grizz in Memphis. Am I seeing this right? A total below 200 in a Clippers game? Yup. And not only is it below 200. It's below 185! With an offense as potent as the Clippers offense it's hard to pull the trigger on an under when the total is below 200. However, they're playing one of the Association's top defenses and THE BEST (in my opinion) defense at home. Memphis is super stingy at home. The Grizzlies are 21-13 Under this season (12-6 Under at home), and 5-1 Under after a loss as a favorite. Memphis is also 7-0 Under after scoring 85 points or less in the previous game! Clippers/Grizzlies under.

Fourth up, T-Wolves v the Mavs in Dallas. No trends or stats for me in this game. Purely making the pick on principle. Somehow the Mavs (a 15-23 team) are laying 7 points. The Wolves are absolutely nothing special but they are the play for me. Wolves 1H and full game.

Last up, Cavs v the Kings in SAC Town. No write-up for this play, just the fact that the Kings don't play defense at home. Cavs/Kings over.

Plays:

Charlotte 1H +6.5 $110/$100

Charlotte +12 -120 $120/$100

Charlotte/Boston 1H over 95.5 $220/$200

Charlotte/Boston over 190 $550/$500

Atlanta/Chicago under 184.5 $220/$200

LA Clippers/Memphis under 184 -120 $600/$500

Minnesota 1H +3.5 $110/$100

Minnesota +7 $110/$100

Cleveland/Sacramento over 205 $220/$200


As always, let's get it! :0074
 

jvenz

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Nov 22, 2010
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I have the clippers vs memphis game at a total of 180 at the moment....if you got it at 184 thats a great number. Is anyone else seeing this at the moment. I just blasted over 180 because i couldnt get the under at 184.....
 

zealot

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I have the clippers vs memphis game at a total of 180 at the moment....if you got it at 184 thats a great number. Is anyone else seeing this at the moment. I just blasted over 180 because i couldnt get the under at 184.....
Wowzers! It did drop to 180.5! It was just announced that Rudy Gay is going to miss tonight but I wouldn't ever imagine that his absence would be responsible for a four point drop. I already have the bet in for under 184 so I'm riding it out!
 

WildBillPicks7

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Wowzers! It did drop to 180.5! It was just announced that Rudy Gay is going to miss tonight but I wouldn't ever imagine that his absence would be responsible for a four point drop. I already have the bet in for under 184 so I'm riding it out!
Chris Paul for LAC is out, bruised knee
 

zealot

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CP3 just got ruled out as well. I'm not a huge fan of making bets with key injuries because of the potential drive of bench production but it was a total I liked early and I'm sticking to my guns!
 

Happy Hippo

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CP3 just got ruled out as well. I'm not a huge fan of making bets with key injuries because of the potential drive of bench production but it was a total I liked early and I'm sticking to my guns!

I agree...oh well, have to see how this plays out now.

Good luck - like reading your thoughts on all these!
 

kungfupanda

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Clippers bench still contributes to over 40% of points and boards. I grabbed it at 182 and took the over. Can't second guess it now. Just hope that both teams. Shoot well.
 

zealot

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Clippers bench still contributes to over 40% of points and boards. I grabbed it at 182 and took the over. Can't second guess it now. Just hope that both teams. Shoot well.
Au contraire. I'm hoping it's a brick fest. Looking at an 89-80 kind of game. :toast:
 

kungfupanda

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Au contraire. I'm hoping it's a brick fest. Looking at an 89-80 kind of game. :toast:

in your case yes. I'm pretty sure my over bet is a loss. But with that many players out for lac, might hedge with a Memphis bet.
 

kungfupanda

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Ah screw it. Just gonna let it ride. Here's hoping the score is 183 and we both win. Cheers! :toast:
 

ivabign

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I do like the under in the Atl/Chi game - they have only gone over that number 3 times in the last 10 games - that may go back as far as Feb, 2010 - but it gives me a warm fuzzy in this spot.
 

zealot

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I do like the under in the Atl/Chi game - they have only gone over that number 3 times in the last 10 games - that may go back as far as Feb, 2010 - but it gives me a warm fuzzy in this spot.
I noticed that same stat! Me likey! :0074
 
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