NBA Playoffs

[DZ]

I don't see much on the board I like for Game Ones, so gonna start with a couple of modest plays...

TOR -2 1H x2
MIL/CHI UNDER 93 1H x2

If this game in Chicago gets off to a fast start or goes over in the first half, I'll be heavy on the under in-game. If anything over 186 shows, I'm jumping all over it. I expect this total (184.5) will be the highest of any total that will show for the entire series and it will steadily go down as this series drags on. No idea what linemakers were thinking opening it at 193.5 :lol: Wish I got that number.

Looking at Clips and Rockets for series bets, but waiting to see if lines moves to get better value. Raptors are intriguing, but they are hard to trust; although, they did beat WAS all three times they faced them this year including 2 blowouts in Toronto. You better believe that place will be rocking when they play at home. Home court will be key for the Raps in that series they want redemption for their 1st round loss to BKN in the playoffs last year.


GLTA in the 1st round and beyond
:toast:

 

[DZ]

:00hour:00hour:00hour:00hour

 

[thadchr]

Don't like to see that you're leaning Clippers and Rockets Deezy. I've already booked the Spurs ML for game one and I think the Rockets might be my series upset pick. Perhaps you can explain your rationale tomorrow? :0008

 

[DZ]

TOR -4 (-105) 2H x5

 

[DZ]

TOR ML +175 LIVE x2

 

[thadchr]

Well we got the overtime, just couldn't close it out. Sad start but on to the next one.

Thoughts on the two late games (other than the Chi/Milw under)?

 

[DZ]

Don't like to see that you're leaning Clippers and Rockets Deezy. I've already booked the Spurs ML for game one and I think the Rockets might be my series upset pick. Perhaps you can explain your rationale tomorrow? :0008

Well we got the overtime, just couldn't close it out. Sad start but on to the next one.

Thoughts on the two late games (other than the Chi/Milw under)?

Thad, don't have time to do a full write-up at the moment, but it boils down to value on the Clips. +150 to +160 is just too high for what will most likely be a long series, one in which a game 7 in LA is fairly likely. It may provide a good hedge opportunity in game 7 if it gets to that point. I don't think that home court will matter much in this series as the Clippers lack a home crowd edge at home and at the same time, are not afraid of going into San Antonio and grinding out a game on the road. The Spurs, as we know, are a veteran group that can win anywhere. The price on the Spurs reflects an obvious public/media bias towards this defending champs, but this series is much closer to 50/50 than the line reflects. From a matchup perspective, the Clips have an advantage at PG and in the interior. The key for them will be their defense on the perimeter at the SG and SF positions, which are weak points for this team defensively. For the Spurs, Danny Green and Kawhi will have to take advantage of their matchups for the Spurs to win. Still no play yet though as I haven't been able to catch the price I want, but I may settle for +155 if +160 doesn't show at one of my books.

On the Rockets side, I am most likely going to hold off as the price is just too steep. The line translates to Dallas winning 31.25% of the time, 68.75% for the Rockets. I have the Rockets winning this series 72.5% of the time. While these two teams are comparable offensively, it is on the defensive end where they differ significantly and in the playoffs that holds more weight in a best of 7 series.


As for the remainder of the card this evening, I'm planning on playing the Bucks right before game time coming up here in a moment. I'm just waiting for a more favorable number to show. May have to settle on 8.

:toast:

 

[DZ]

Gonna start with this for now and look for value on the full game line in-game...

MIL +4.5 1H x4

 

[DZ]

MIL/CHI UNDER 186 x4

 

[thadchr]

Deezy, thanks as usual for the excellent analysis. I'm still not sure if I agree that the Spurs aren't notably better than 50% to win this series, but your logic does make sense. I also just have a gut feeling that the Mavs with their veteran savvy and coaching will step it up in the post season against what I think might be a fairly vulnerable Rockets team. I feel in particular the first half in this game and perhaps throughout the series is/are a toss-up, so if I get a reasonably priced plus-money bet I may bite.

I'll definitely be on the Bucks tonight as well. I'm trying to remove any homer bias. Just think 8 is a pretty large number. Glad you're on them as well. Best of luck.

 

[thadchr]

Also, thanks for the winning percentage numbers on the Dal/Hou game. Very helpful. :toast:

 

[DZ]

MIL/CHI UNDER 195.5 LIVE x2

 

[thadchr]

Got Under 196 in the Mil/Chi game. Hope it comes through for us.

 

[DZ]

Deezy, thanks as usual for the excellent analysis. I'm still not sure if I agree that the Spurs aren't notably better than 50% to win this series, but your logic does make sense. I also just have a gut feeling that the Mavs with their veteran savvy and coaching will step it up in the post season against what I think might be a fairly vulnerable Rockets team. I feel in particular the first half in this game and perhaps throughout the series is/are a toss-up, so if I get a reasonably priced plus-money bet I may bite.

I'll definitely be on the Bucks tonight as well. I'm trying to remove any homer bias. Just think 8 is a pretty large number. Glad you're on them as well. Best of luck.

The SAS/LAC series price translates to approximately 63%/37%. I have it closer to 53/47, which is more than enough value for a play on Clippers side for the series.

I agree that Dallas has a definite coaching edge. I have a lot of respect for Rick Carlisle as an in-game manager and strategist, while I can't say the same for Kevin McHale. Certainly a contributing factor in my choice to lay off the series bet on the Rockets.


Of course the Bucks & Bulls are shooting the lights out early :lol:

 

[DZ]

Wow, I really felt like the Bucks played well enough to cover that 1st half spread. It just wasn't there defensively. I'm clearly on tilt right now so fade away. If playing with me, treading lightly would be wise.

I'm obviously posting late, but for record-keeping purposes I played...
MIL +2 2H x5

 

[thadchr]

Rough day for us so far Deezy. I suspect we're on opposite sides, but I'll be playing the Mavs tonight to try the make a little back. Wish me luck.

 

[DZ]

Rough day for us so far Deezy. I suspect we're on opposite sides, but I'll be playing the Mavs tonight to try the make a little back. Wish me luck.

GL bud. Gonna sit this last one out. Hope you cash big :toast:

 

[DZ]

Took yesterday off, needed a break after a rough two days.

Going back to the well with this...

MIL/CHI UNDER 190 x5
MIL/CHI 1Q UNDER 48 x2

 

[DZ]

Glad to have a bounce back day yesterday. Playing this early. May put more on it closer to game time, but want to grab a little of this total now in case it goes down. If it moves up right before tip like the game 2 total did, I'll load up some more.

April 23rd:
CHI/MIL UNDER 188 (-120) x3 to win x2.5

 

[DZ]

I'm big on this total tonight. I may add some more to it if the line goes up. Just a short note, before game 1 of this playoff series, this matchup hadn't resulted in an over in any of the 4 matchups from the regular season, none of them approaching the current total for game 2. Add to that, game 2's trend to the under after the losing team from game 1 makes the needed adjustments (which I am more than confident Carlisle can do here). This line is also inflated a few points after a high-scoring game one.

DAL/HOU UNDER 215 x4
DAL/HOU 1Q UNDER 55 x2