Yesterday: 5-1
YTD NBA: 9-1
Best Bets: 2-0
Might have got a bit lucky yesterday with the Raptors huge 4th Q comeback, but I'll take it! I really don't expect to keep up this pace but it's a nice start.
I did up these picks a bit quickly today, so buyer beware. I've gotta get some real life stuff done this afternoon so not as much time to look at the games. Might add more later. No Best Bets as of yet.
Phoenix/Dallas Over 196
Dallas' defence has gone downhill very very quickly. Heck, they even gave up 94 points to Miami last night (dead-last 29th ranked offence in the NBA). The Heat don't score 94 on anyone. The surprising thing in the Mavs slide is that they haven't been playing against the best offensive teams. Tonight they face the best offence they've seen all year...the first Top 10 offence they have seen all season (though it's still not one of the best). Against comparable offences they have given up 109 (Toronto), 91 (Denver), 115 (Detroit) and 105 (Seattle). On the other side of the ball, you've got a Phoenix team that played a string of good defensive teams, limiting their offensive numbers a bit for a time. Last night, vs the worst D in the league (Memphis), Phoenix put up 103. Phoenix is also in the position of facing one of the better offences they've seen in a while.
The number is high and climbing steadily, but I will go with the Over 196.
Concerns:
*Both teams played + traveled last night. I'm hoping this means tired defence, and not weak shooting. Still the numbers look good enough to risk it.
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Detroit -12? vs Memphis
Holding my nose on this one....
Memphis has covered one game all year, and has now failed to cover in 9 straight. They've won one game, and lost all the rest, with their smallest margin of defeat being 7 points. On the road against good teams, their losing margins have been 9, 12, 16 and 24 (in that order)...progressively worse each game.
Detroit, on the other hand, has beaten up on the weaker teams by margins of 10, 22, 24 and 26 (in order), before falling apart last night @ Atlanta in a game they had a huge lead in.
Had the Pistons won last night I seriously doubt I'd be betting this. But that was a game they should have won and this lame Grizzlies team has the unlucky fortune of getting the brunt of Detroit's frustration.
Concerns:
*I am really uncomfortable laying this many points in any game, and I'm worried this may be a mistake. But the numbers say it's STILL a play. If Stackhouse doesn't play, I am not playing this.
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New Jersey/Sacramento Under 190
New Jersey is much improved, but I think they have finally met their match here. I was/am borderline taking Sacramento too, but I think the Under is the safer play. Sac has gone Under 6 games in a row; NJ has gone Under 4 in a row.
Sac's offence is very impressive, but on nearly every occasion where they've been kept in check, it's been against the best defences...and NJ's defence is currently #3. The Nets have allowed over 100 pts just once all year, and allowed fewer than 90 five times. Against other Top D's, Sac has been kept in the 85-95 range. That may be good enough to cover...maybe not...but either way, that should mean a solid Under.
The Nets are in a similar situation, facing better D than they are accustomed to. I like it.
Concerns:
*Are the Nets too tired to play that solid D, playing their 4th road game in six nights? I hope not. Sac is rested and ready and may just be too much for the young Nets to handle. Really tempting to throw in Sac -7? too, but not doing it yet.
YTD NBA: 9-1
Best Bets: 2-0
Might have got a bit lucky yesterday with the Raptors huge 4th Q comeback, but I'll take it! I really don't expect to keep up this pace but it's a nice start.
I did up these picks a bit quickly today, so buyer beware. I've gotta get some real life stuff done this afternoon so not as much time to look at the games. Might add more later. No Best Bets as of yet.
Phoenix/Dallas Over 196
Dallas' defence has gone downhill very very quickly. Heck, they even gave up 94 points to Miami last night (dead-last 29th ranked offence in the NBA). The Heat don't score 94 on anyone. The surprising thing in the Mavs slide is that they haven't been playing against the best offensive teams. Tonight they face the best offence they've seen all year...the first Top 10 offence they have seen all season (though it's still not one of the best). Against comparable offences they have given up 109 (Toronto), 91 (Denver), 115 (Detroit) and 105 (Seattle). On the other side of the ball, you've got a Phoenix team that played a string of good defensive teams, limiting their offensive numbers a bit for a time. Last night, vs the worst D in the league (Memphis), Phoenix put up 103. Phoenix is also in the position of facing one of the better offences they've seen in a while.
The number is high and climbing steadily, but I will go with the Over 196.
Concerns:
*Both teams played + traveled last night. I'm hoping this means tired defence, and not weak shooting. Still the numbers look good enough to risk it.
=================================================
Detroit -12? vs Memphis
Holding my nose on this one....
Memphis has covered one game all year, and has now failed to cover in 9 straight. They've won one game, and lost all the rest, with their smallest margin of defeat being 7 points. On the road against good teams, their losing margins have been 9, 12, 16 and 24 (in that order)...progressively worse each game.
Detroit, on the other hand, has beaten up on the weaker teams by margins of 10, 22, 24 and 26 (in order), before falling apart last night @ Atlanta in a game they had a huge lead in.
Had the Pistons won last night I seriously doubt I'd be betting this. But that was a game they should have won and this lame Grizzlies team has the unlucky fortune of getting the brunt of Detroit's frustration.
Concerns:
*I am really uncomfortable laying this many points in any game, and I'm worried this may be a mistake. But the numbers say it's STILL a play. If Stackhouse doesn't play, I am not playing this.
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New Jersey/Sacramento Under 190
New Jersey is much improved, but I think they have finally met their match here. I was/am borderline taking Sacramento too, but I think the Under is the safer play. Sac has gone Under 6 games in a row; NJ has gone Under 4 in a row.
Sac's offence is very impressive, but on nearly every occasion where they've been kept in check, it's been against the best defences...and NJ's defence is currently #3. The Nets have allowed over 100 pts just once all year, and allowed fewer than 90 five times. Against other Top D's, Sac has been kept in the 85-95 range. That may be good enough to cover...maybe not...but either way, that should mean a solid Under.
The Nets are in a similar situation, facing better D than they are accustomed to. I like it.
Concerns:
*Are the Nets too tired to play that solid D, playing their 4th road game in six nights? I hope not. Sac is rested and ready and may just be too much for the young Nets to handle. Really tempting to throw in Sac -7? too, but not doing it yet.
