40 - I do when I think the ML is lower than it should be given the spread. These cases - the books know that the doggy has a good chance to win.
Hit again last night with CMU coming through late in the game - got lucky with -2.5 - timed my bet right for a change. Here is the write for the same guy that is absolutely on fire during the second half of the bowl season. I went back and checked - he is 12 -4 the last 16 bowls (about 50/50 during 1H). If you want to know where I am getting these write-ups/picks - just PM me across the streeet (wounded_duck) - picks and write-ups are free. I just pounded TX +4.5 on Matchbook.
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Two teams who just missed making it to the BCS Championship game a year ago both made it this year as we have the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Texas Longhorns battling it for the National Title.
It's been a dream season for Alabama and coach Nick Saban. Alabama started their season with a thrilling win over Virginia Tech in the Georgia Dome, rumbled through the rest of their regular season undefeated, and stomped Florida i the SEC Championship game to earn their spot in this game. Tide fans would like nothing more than to see this Alabama team bring home National Title number 13, especially in the same year Alabama had their first Heisman Trophy winner. The Alabama offense was a handful behind the running of the Heisman winner, Mark Ingram, who ran for 1542 yards this season. The Bama running attack ranked 13th in the country averaging 215.8 yards per game with all world freshman Trent Richardson performing like everything he was advertised to be. The passing game wasn't as good as first year starter Greg McElroy struggled in the second half of the season, limiting the numbers for one of the best players in the country, Julio Jones. Though the Tide Offense didn't win games by themselves, the defense certainly could have. It's tough to find a weakness in the Bama D and from unit to unit, they are exceptional. Alabama allowed 11 points per game (3rd nationally) and just over 217 yards (3rd nationally) a game. The defense is loaded with stars and future NFL players. This defense could be Saban's best work of his career.
Texas felt they deserved to be in the National Title game a year ago over Oklahoma as they had beaten the Sooners head to head and both had identical records but Big 12 tiebreakers proved to be their undoing. This year Texas left no room for doubt by running the table, winning the Big 12 Title Game, and leaving nothing up to chance. Texas QB Colt McCoy was a leading Heisman Trophy candidate when the season started and he was still one when the season ended but his body of his work over the course of the year didn't get it done. I think McCoy would gladly trade winning the Heisman for the National Championship Trophy. McCoy's favorite target is wide receiver Jordan Shipley who has been teammates with McCoy their entire lives. We don't hear a lot about the Longhorn defense and it's probably because they are just doing a lot of things right. While they come in at 10th in points allowed at 15.4 per game, they specialize in stopping the run as they are 3rd in the country averaging just 61.8 yards on the ground per game.
Alabama is 5-1 against the spread in their last six games against the Big 12 and 6-2 against the spread in their last eight as favorites between 3 1/2 and 10 points. Texas is 4-0 against the spread in their four neutral site games as an underdog but just 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 bowl games. Texas leads the all time series against Alabama at 7-0-1.
There aren't two more deserving teams in the NCAA than these two to be in the Championship game. Though there were other teams who went undefeated this year, there was little argument about these two being the deserving ones to play in this game. I think this game sets up to be pretty even as Bama has the edge slightly defensively but Texas has a bigger edge offensively. I think it comes down to execution and turnovers and though I give Nick Saban a slight edge over Mack Brown, I give Colt McCoy a big Edge over Greg McElroy at QB and think this is the difference.
Mitch's Pick: Texas +4
