Hey Fellas, not much on the board tonight, but nevertheless let us get to work.
Leans
chi@bos 194o
cle@utah 195o & utah
later.:toast:
Leans
chi@bos 194o
cle@utah 195o & utah
later.:toast:
NBA THURS 01142010- Early Thoughts and Value Hunting
- Thread starter dr.sinister
- Start date
Bounceback
Bounceback
Took it on the chin last night, and back to the drawing board on my "system", going o-2. :moon:
One thing I have noticed though, is that I had unders in both Phoenix and Golden St, the 2 highest scoring teams in the League. There's an obvius variance I'm overlooking with these 2 teams, as there have been 2 games that I had capped with a 10+ point margin. Last night with the Suns, and a game last week with GSW, and both flew well over the total. I actually started running these numbers, in thinking that Vegas was "telling us something", that if the number were well over what I had capped, that it was a sign to go with over. Well I tracked it over a couple nights, and noticed it went the other way.
One thing with these numbers, is that any "plays" or "leans" towards the over, are extremely successful, especially if a team is on the 2nd night of a b2b. Maybe I will try to isolate these factors in the future, and make it a true "system". Sorry for the novel....:violin:
Be back in a few with my play.
Bounceback
Took it on the chin last night, and back to the drawing board on my "system", going o-2. :moon:
One thing I have noticed though, is that I had unders in both Phoenix and Golden St, the 2 highest scoring teams in the League. There's an obvius variance I'm overlooking with these 2 teams, as there have been 2 games that I had capped with a 10+ point margin. Last night with the Suns, and a game last week with GSW, and both flew well over the total. I actually started running these numbers, in thinking that Vegas was "telling us something", that if the number were well over what I had capped, that it was a sign to go with over. Well I tracked it over a couple nights, and noticed it went the other way.
One thing with these numbers, is that any "plays" or "leans" towards the over, are extremely successful, especially if a team is on the 2nd night of a b2b. Maybe I will try to isolate these factors in the future, and make it a true "system". Sorry for the novel....:violin:
Be back in a few with my play.
Ok, going back old school, no analysis, just picks.
**Nothing like looking dumb while your play loses and your analysis is off a country mile**
GEM 22-22-1, on a 4 game losing streak WOOHOO
GEM: Providence -3
Other action plays or leans:
JMU +9.5
Buffalo -3
Clev St +15
Oregon -1 (this one loses I'm done with Pac-10)
IU +14
Zaga/Gaels Over 153
S. Alabama -2
Troy -5
Fla ATL +11.5
Pepperdine -3
NBA: Both overs Bos 194.5, Clev 195
**Nothing like looking dumb while your play loses and your analysis is off a country mile**
GEM 22-22-1, on a 4 game losing streak WOOHOO
GEM: Providence -3
Other action plays or leans:
JMU +9.5
Buffalo -3
Clev St +15
Oregon -1 (this one loses I'm done with Pac-10)
IU +14
Zaga/Gaels Over 153
S. Alabama -2
Troy -5
Fla ATL +11.5
Pepperdine -3
NBA: Both overs Bos 194.5, Clev 195
Locked in
Locked in
One play for me tonight.
Cavs-Jazz OVER 194
Had this capped at 201, so it would fit into the original "system" even though no team is coming off a b2b.
In the Boston game, have the total capped at 198.5 (cap to tenth of a point) so if this total continues to drop and hits 193.5, this would be a true "sysyem" play, being an over and the Celts on a 2nd of a b2b.
JUST SOME TRENDS TO WATCH FOR, NOT ADVISING TO PLAY!!!!
Good luck fellas :toast:
Locked in
One play for me tonight.
Cavs-Jazz OVER 194
Had this capped at 201, so it would fit into the original "system" even though no team is coming off a b2b.
In the Boston game, have the total capped at 198.5 (cap to tenth of a point) so if this total continues to drop and hits 193.5, this would be a true "sysyem" play, being an over and the Celts on a 2nd of a b2b.
JUST SOME TRENDS TO WATCH FOR, NOT ADVISING TO PLAY!!!!
Good luck fellas :toast:
Good Stuff
Good Stuff
Love the way the Overs are looking
I must say I really like the Bulls and all those points and the Jazz.
CBB I like Washington but who knows what is going on in the PAC10 now and will go Under at GT. As for Slicers GEM i agree with the pick BUT the I never like following a fired coach at home so i may wait for now. Lastly, I am a CAA guy and love JMU+ that many points but Bill and Mary are shocking the play ODU next week and will be interesting, so thanks Slicer
No POD today
Good Stuff
Love the way the Overs are looking
I must say I really like the Bulls and all those points and the Jazz.
CBB I like Washington but who knows what is going on in the PAC10 now and will go Under at GT. As for Slicers GEM i agree with the pick BUT the I never like following a fired coach at home so i may wait for now. Lastly, I am a CAA guy and love JMU+ that many points but Bill and Mary are shocking the play ODU next week and will be interesting, so thanks Slicer
No POD today
locked in
locked in
Ok here are my plays for tonight.
cle@utah 194o & utah -1
I see Utah simply thumping the Cavs. Plus they are at home at basically pickem' , I think there is great value to this play. Good luck guys !!! :director:
locked in
Ok here are my plays for tonight.
cle@utah 194o & utah -1
I see Utah simply thumping the Cavs. Plus they are at home at basically pickem' , I think there is great value to this play. Good luck guys !!! :director:
Sorry
Sorry
I'm seriously considering hedging my bet here and going under.
Clevelands Defense being Ranked #1 in FG% Allowed...and #3 in PTS Allowed, while Utah is #9...
Last game went over by 20, so thinking this is inflated. :scared
And ADDING
Bulls +6.5 [/B]
Sorry
I'm seriously considering hedging my bet here and going under.
Clevelands Defense being Ranked #1 in FG% Allowed...and #3 in PTS Allowed, while Utah is #9...
Last game went over by 20, so thinking this is inflated. :scared
And ADDING
Bulls +6.5 [/B]
Cancel
Cancel
Ya, I hedged my Jazz over pick. 4th straight road game for Cavs, and a alot of late steam on under.
So only the one play:director:
Bulls +6.5
Good luck guys. Hope I regret hedging.
Cancel
Ya, I hedged my Jazz over pick. 4th straight road game for Cavs, and a alot of late steam on under.
So only the one play:director:
Bulls +6.5
Good luck guys. Hope I regret hedging.
FRIDAY
FRIDAY
No plays for me tonight fellas BOL with your action!
I have already began capping Friday, actually I capped these games this morning at 930 and was just waiting all day to see some numbers and DAMN was I close today.
I have the following on the radar
ATL - I had it at 5 and it came out there and is down to 4.5 I love the movement I think it will get to 4 and I will POUND ATL, i think they win by DD
MEM - I had it at 7 so the 8.5 might be a little rich for me, but I have them winning by 12 so if I can get 7.5 I am in
IND - I had at -4 so I am happy to see 3.5 but I don't think it will be there long I may buy tonight if I have time to go to the casino
LAL - I think it will come out at -9 or -10, with PAU probable, I think they remind the Clippers who the Lakers are and win by 15+
GSW - i had it at -4 last night, and seeing it at 4.5 today I am not surprised if it doesn't go to 5 by morning. GSW in a BLOW OUT!!!! :thefinger
FRIDAY
No plays for me tonight fellas BOL with your action!
I have already began capping Friday, actually I capped these games this morning at 930 and was just waiting all day to see some numbers and DAMN was I close today.
I have the following on the radar
ATL - I had it at 5 and it came out there and is down to 4.5 I love the movement I think it will get to 4 and I will POUND ATL, i think they win by DD
MEM - I had it at 7 so the 8.5 might be a little rich for me, but I have them winning by 12 so if I can get 7.5 I am in
IND - I had at -4 so I am happy to see 3.5 but I don't think it will be there long I may buy tonight if I have time to go to the casino
LAL - I think it will come out at -9 or -10, with PAU probable, I think they remind the Clippers who the Lakers are and win by 15+
GSW - i had it at -4 last night, and seeing it at 4.5 today I am not surprised if it doesn't go to 5 by morning. GSW in a BLOW OUT!!!! :thefinger
Congrats Slice, knew you'd get back on track. Great hit tonight. These NBA plays are strugglin... Nice hit on Bulls tho Billy!