:topic:
This is a write-up from a capper on another site from Oregon that lives for Oregon Sports. I posted some of his stuff on here last year he is a very solid capper. I thought some of you would like the read
BOL to All Tonight!!!!
Thought about breaking this into sections - did so much prep that I didn't wanna leave anything out, and I truly pared it down as much as possible: Time's a wastin' w/short Wk; Really trying to snap this off:
OREGON STATE BEAVERS AT OREGON DUCKS
D-Coordinators' preperation MOST critical to Thu outcome
ORE DC, ALLOTTI devised adequate schemes to disrupt #2 Cnf OrSt Offense?
ORE ST DC, BANKER effective schemes to slow #3 Cnf Ore Offense?
THE DEF THAT CAN, ABOVE ALL ELSE:
GET 2 to 3 STOPS PER HALF, or optimally
GET AT LEAST ONE 3-&-OUT/HF
FORCE OPP TO PUNT <2x HF, in own ter
WIN T-Ov Margin (09: Ore +5 | Ore St +4)
Captain Obvious tells us: Tm that can accomplish most amt of these Def Goals will KEEP Offense ON Field
ORE & ORE ST DEF'S:
Far Different concerns from Opp Offenses:
OREGON STATE DEFENSE VS OREGON OFFENSE:
CAN ORE ST DEF slow dynamic dual-threat Masolli-led Ore "shell-game" Spread Offense?
For all the talk about Ore's stellar 09 Def, ORE ST DEF boomeranged from poor 1st Hf Yr & has rapid climb to Upper Conf Def Status:
#1 PAC-10, ORE ST RUSH DEF: 98 ypg
Ore St L-5 Gms 3rd in NCAA, only Tex & Fla better
I truly believe ORE ST Def is largely under-estimated, ESP v ORE's PRIMARY OFF WEAPON, RUSH ATTACK
OREGON OFFENSE SLIPPING?
ORE Rush Off is still #1 in PAC-10, and #7 Nat'l (naturally), yet, ORE avg 50 YDS LESS than L-YR
08: 281TY/Gm
09: 231 RY/Gm
ORE SCORING is #1 PAC-10, yet Again, 4.3 PPG Less than L-Yr
08: 42.0 PPG
09: 37.7 PPG
OREGON DEFENSE v OREGON STATE OFFENSE:
CAN ORE DEF slow Canfield/Rodgers Brothers & Ore St Pro-Set Off?
Ore Def repeatedly branded 'EXCELLENT', yet Ore has alwd 500+ yds, 3 of l-5 Wks
BALANCE:
Oregon has had Def issues with:
TOP 25 OFF Tms -
THAT ARE 'BALANCED'
Stan & Ariz are Ideal examples
(Bal = 60/40 or more)
Yes, ORE Held Back a suddenly Rebuilding So Cal 'Balanced' Tm, But ORE Had ++ trouble w/SC before this yr
TO THIS END: ORE ST SUPERBLY BALANCED:
#1 PAC-10 PASSING OFF: 273/g
#2 PAC-10 RUSHER: Jaquwizz Rodgers - 119.4/yp
ORE ST OFF: UNDER RATED / EXCEEDINGLY EFFICIENT:
ORE ST #1 NCAA, RED-ZONE: 96%
48-50
37 TD (19 Rush / 18 Psg... is this Bal?)
11-12 FG, Red-Z
OREGON ST is #1 NCAA W/FEWEST FUMBLES LOST: 2
ORE ST #1 PAC-10 in all Following Categories:
PASSING: 273/ypg
PSS EFF (Canfield): 147.5/gm
FEWEST GIVEAWAYS: 0.723/gm
FIRST DOWNS: 22.09/Gm
3RD DOWN CONV: 48.4%
4TH DOWN CONV: 80% (8-10)
ORE ST QB, SEAN CANFIELD = EFFICIENT:
CANFIELD: ONLY SEASON-LONG, SR STARTING QB IN PAC-10
(ASU SR Sullivan has been Starting)
CANFIELD: HITTING 70.3% PASSES
CANFIELD: 19-6 TD/INT RATIO
ORE's Aliotti surprisingly 'Cavalier' w/OrSt Rec's;
"James Rodgers only Playmaker to TRULY worry about"
Hmm...MIGHT WANNA KEEP AN EYE ON:
Jaquwizz Rodgers PAC-10's #2 REC - OUT OF BACKFLD
(James Rodgers is #1)
In addition, ORE ST ADENIJI IS #7 REC IN PAC-10
Obviously, snap-statement...he clearly knows about rest
INCIDENTALLY, ORE ST RODGERS' BRO'S COLLECTIVELY LEAD PAC-10 IN ALL-PURPOSE YDS:
#1 JAMES
#2 JAQUWIZZ
OREGON STATE ROAD SUCCESS:
Autzen is Crazy atmosphere, to be certain. Easy to overlook fact that, although ORE only officially released 5k tix to Ore St AD, there will TRUTHFULLY be 8-12k Folks in ORANGE at the Landfill...err...Autzen (including this guy). Just as The 8-12k Hard-Core Oregon faithful 'find a way', and descend on Reser every other yr, (& this year in particular...Economy, December Gm, Xmas $ Needed, Cold Weather, ect) there are a great deal of fair-weathered, candy-ass fans (both schools / either yr), who're content to coerce several bills from a Die-Hard for tix, just to watch the gm on ESPN. I am honestly hearing it truly may be close to 20 | 80 THIS YEAR, when it's usually 10-90, 15-85.
ORE ST #1 PAC-10, ROAD SCORING MARGIN: +11.4
Riley-led Beavers superb in Pressure Gms / Rd Gms:
5x at Cal
4x at Ariz
4x at Wash
1x at Ore
SIGNIFICANCE OF BYE WK: RILEY/KELLY STAFFS & TMS "W/TIME"
I've talked about this exhaustively, yet cannot be understated, IMO
Moreover, the RILEY numbers exceed what I'd originally stated
Riley's Oregon St Tms, w/'Time' (Bye Wks, or <2-Wks Prep, incl Bowls):
Riley's Beavers
12-2 ATS (85.7%)
11-3 S-U (78.57%)
Kelly's Ducks Good Too:
4-1 ATS & S-U (80%)
REVENGE
Roles almost precisely reversed from 2008
Oregon w/Hm Gm Civil War Finale' for Rose Bowl-Clinching Birth
2008: Ore at Ore St
Beavers to Pasadena w/Win
As we all (some painfully) recall
Ducks blasted Beavers, 65-38
Ore nearly 700 YDS TTL OFF
Beavers were humiliated on their Hm Turf
As would expect, this Knaws at a bunch of Angry Beavers
65-38
Posted above Tunnel to Prothro Field (Prac)
Posted above Tunnel to Reser
Posted above Ever Players' Locker
Posted above Locker Rm Grease board
Oregon St spends 10 MIN every Practice on ORE
- 'What they do'
- 'What Beavers' Def Assignments must be on 12/3/09'
- 'How other tms have defeated &\or succeeded v Ore'
REST
Aside from practice efforts, many reasons to reduce the significance of "65-38", last yr's Civil War Drubbing from Capping standpoint
ORE ST had >1 less prep wk
ORE ST w/o PAC-10 Of P.O.Y., Jwz Rodgers (Inj)
ORE ST Decimated on Def Side of Ball
ORE RESTED (Bye Wk), Hlthy|Hot-as-Hell
MISC:
SACK DIFFERENTIAL:
ORE +18
ORE ST -12
ORE +30?
Isn't this HUGE issue w/all OrSt's 7-Stp Pss?
Esp at AUTZEN?
Yes & but not RECENTLY
Oregon St has miraculous 'about-face' in this area:
OrSt alwd ALARMING 4.5 Scks/G (UNLV, Az, Cin)
YET l-5 Gms, BEAVERS ALWD >1/G
Far Better Beaver Pass Protection:
* Has alwd Canfield & OrSt Solid Pocket
* Canfield has TORCHED 2-Deep Underbellies of ASU, Stan, UW, ect
Again, COULD this be a BIG Problem for Beavers?
YEP - this is the Primary Concern w/ORE ST
Yet the Trend is consistent & lasting (5+ Gms)
FLU RUMOR (Getting this over with):
Rumor (Probably Nothing)
Several Members of Ore Backfield contracted Flu
Emerged over T-Giv Break
Barner had ALREADY been confirmed publicly l-Wed
Treatment is in Full Effect...
Just FYI - Mum is Word from Ore Camp
'F.F.F.F' - FEW FINAL FUN-FACTS:
ORE #1 PAC-10: PERSONAL-FOUL PEN (26)
ORST #10 PAC-10: FEWEST P-FOUL PEN: (9)
Rivalries....P-F's?
ORE & ORE ST are BOTH 100% RED-Z, L-4 WKS
* JAQUWIZZ RODGERS
* JAMES RODGERS
* JEREMIAH MASOLLI
* SEAN CANFIELD
#1, #2, #3, and\or #4 IN VARIOUS 3-MAN COMBINATIONS
7 of 8 MAJOR TTL OFF INDIV. CATEGORIES
SPECIAL TMS:
Very Good For Both - ESP ORE
ORE #1 PAC-10 | ORE ST #3
ORE BARNER - #2 K-OFF RET YD
(1 TD - 100/yd v UCLA)
ORE ST JMS RODGERS - #2 PNT-RET (14.6/yd avg)
SIMILARITIES:
ORE & ORE ST, TTL OFF, Separated by TWO YDS per Gm
ORE ST 421
ORE 419
PENALTIES:
ORE 81 Penalties
ORE ST 80 Penalties
T-OVER MARGIN: Tms Separated by 1 T-OVER
ORE +5
ORST +4
LAST FEW POINTS w/OREGON:
Oregon returns home after exhilarating 44-41 OT WIN at Ariz
It was really Oregon's 1st Rd Win over Upper Division Tm
ORE HAS SCORED IN 40's L-5 GMS, AVG 42/GM
ORE is 9-1 S-U, LAST-10
Ducks are 7-2 ATS, but 1-2 ATS l-3
LAST FEW POINTS w/OREGON STATE:
Oregon State may not Win Thursday
Safe to say Ore St supremely aware of mistakes md L-Yr
Ore St is exceptionally prepared Football Tm.
Ore St's RUSH DEF is TRULY BULLDOZING TMS
ORE ST HAS ALWD 16 PPG avg, L-4
ORE ST is 6-1 ATS & S-U, LAST-7
Beavers have Covered L-3 Gms
PICKS
Could not wait to drop this in
SINCE WE HAVE THE LINE WE GLADLY WANTED ALL ALONG
* BEAVERS' <RUN DEF v DUCKS REDUCED RUN PRODUCT
* BEAVERS' W/TIME, at LEAST CANCELS OUT W/ORE
* BEAVERS' NEARLY PERFECT,w/GIVEAWAYS'
* BEAVERS' REVENGE
* BEAVERS' SR QB LEADERSHIP & 70.3 Compl %
* ORE SEC'DRY is DECENT, BUT SHORT-HANDED:
Oregon's "Beaver Killer", & 'The Man': Thurmmond, has been out for yr
After digging into every conceivable angle & aspect,
I believe Beavers get enough stops to have Offense on Field Repeatedly
Afrorementioned Beaver Offense Playing Efficiently, esp. on Rd
MOST IMPORTANTLY - ORE ST OFF is BALANCED
ORE ST really has every weapon in arsenal to Move ball vs Ore Def
Ducks given up +500 Yds to 60% of l-5 Opp
Ore St BETTER OFFENSIVELY than 2 of those 3
These Two Prolific Offenses destined to pour in 1 TD+/Q
HONESTLY, at Hm, Oregon will likely win...
NEVERTHELESS - AS Even as these tms TRULY are,
Sincerely believe we'll have ourselves good 'ol SHOOTOUT:
YET, Alas - an OREGON WIN
PREDICTED SCORE:
OREGON STATE BEAVERS 33
OREGON DUCKS 37
________________________
4 UNIT | PLAY-OF-THE-MONTH:
OREGON STATE +10 at OREGON
0.67 UNIT | 7-POINT-TEASER:
OREGON STATE +17
OREGON STATE at OREGON | OVER 54
0.33 UNIT | MONEYLINE VALUE PLAY:
OREGON STATE +300
