NBA TUES 01113010-Early Thoughts & Value Hunting

[40seven]

Last night was my best night in a few weeks 4-0 in the NBA. :00hour

It is 1030 on the East Coast and tonight so far I lean on NOTHING.

I got money and no plays. I will be back later, to see your gems

 

[granpa]

Early leans

Early leans

NBA

Det/Wash O 197.5
Hou/Char U 190.5

NCAA

NC State/FSU O 130

 

[Slicer]

NBA: Hous/Char U191 stood out to me the most
Orl/Sac O206 was the 2nd play.

NCAA GEM OF THE DAY: 22-20-1 Officially Even for the year. After starting out hot 5 games over .500 I've gone cold the past 3 weeks, 3 games under .500. So more focus, more research and better plays forthcoming as I need a hot run to get back to my 60% goal for Gems.

Tuesday's GEM: Missouri St -5.5 @ Drake.

The Drake Bulldogs fresh off their upset win @ So. Illinois return home to face the 3rd best team in the MVC. The Bulldogs rankings in statistical categories are awful, (#249 in ppg, #239 in FG%, #321 in rebounding, the lone bright spot #11in FT shooting), defensively they are even worse (#201 in ppg allowed, #304 in fg% allowed, #297 in 3pt allowed, #243 in rebounds allowed yielding a -5.2 rebounds per game.

The Bears come into this game fresh off a win against Bradley 88-69 after suffering defeat in their previous 2 against the MVC's top 2 teams N. Iowa and Witchta St. They boast respective national rankings in 3pt shooting, fg% and FT % while having the nations 62nd ranking in defensive ppg and holding a +.9 rebounding advantage through their first 16 games of the year.

SMS is 9-3-1 vs. Drake in their L13 meetings but 0-2 @ Drake SU the last 2 years. This is a different team this year and I look for them to sail on Drake by 10+ in this matchup.

Other games:

N.Iowa/Bradley Over 127.5
AM/Kstate Under 146
Kentucky -3.5
VCU -2

 

[granpa]

Kentucky

Kentucky

Slice, I see you're leaning Kentucky, but don't you think they're due for a loss? They didn't play a solid full 40 against L'Ville and they've just gotten by a couple other teams. I see this as a possible Florida takedown similar to Kansas/Tenn. IMHO

GL - Granpa

 

[BillyBatts]

About time!

About time!

Congrats on the great night, 40! I had a good night as well going 3-1 and possibly coming up with a new totals system i started to track. It went 5-1 with the only loss being under in Cavs game. Unfortunately, I wont be able to start capping today until about 3 central time, but its not too big of a card, so should have some numbers by 4 oclock. FYI- my system goes off of opening lines that after i cap give me at least 5 pt cushion. 3 games actually ended up going off just under that cushion, one being the Cavs game that lost. So those games were 2-1, the others that kept the 5 pt cushion, went 3-0. will be back in 4 hours, no leans as of yet but maybe Bobs over

 

[40seven]

I had nothing earlier

I had nothing earlier

But after the Kings opened at + points it looks good, but waiting a bit.

The Laker's may be a play tonight also at least for action

 

[Slicer]

Slice, I see you're leaning Kentucky, but don't you think they're due for a loss? They didn't play a solid full 40 against L'Ville and they've just gotten by a couple other teams. I see this as a possible Florida takedown similar to Kansas/Tenn. IMHO

GL - Granpa

I can see your reasoning on it, alot of ppl are thinking that way as well, if there was a game this would be it, but after the Georgia scare, witnessing TN/KN, the Villa game last night etc. KY knows what is looming. This is more of a play against FLA which is struggling from 3 land, struggling on the boards and doesn't play to the same pace they did under their national championship years.

One could argue this game is Kansas/UT, the other side could argue this is Villa/Louisville. We'll call it the rubber match and it is more of an action play for me rather than 1/2 or full unit play.

I don't really suscribe to the "due" theories, on one hand you can relate to other sports: the Colts were "due" to lose at some point, or the Patriots during their run, how about N. Iowa who has covered 9 straight in CBB. Just not part of my capping style.

 

[JBrilman]

.

The Laker's may be a play tonight also at least for action

Careful 40,

Lakers as a underdog this year


team=Lakers and line>0 and 20091030<=date

SU: 0-3 (-16.3)
ATS: 0-3-0 (-14.0) avg line 2.3
O/U: 1-2-0 (-9.5) avg total: 209.8

 

[40seven]

Thanks Buddy

Thanks Buddy

Careful 40,

Lakers as a underdog this year


team=Lakers and line>0 and 20091030<=date

SU: 0-3 (-16.3)
ATS: 0-3-0 (-14.0) avg line 2.3
O/U: 1-2-0 (-9.5) avg total: 209.8

The more i look at this one I may jump on the Spurs

 

[logan]

Only one play for me tonight. Won 11 of last 14.

sas ov 191.5

I wish Gasol was in the line up. The Lakers seam to score a lot more with him. So a small play only.

My CBB POD NCST + 10

g/l

 

[jlippens]

Hey Slicer,

Not to get this off track, but do you still have accuscore numbers? Have you been doing anything with them this year? If so, how has it been working out?

 

[barts185]

leans on

CHA -2

LAC +5.5

SAS -3

ORL/SAC over

Good Luck,
Bart

 

[BillyBatts]

Leans

Leans

Leans so far

Charlotte and over
Sac +4
SA -3


Will be back shortly after I see what the numbers have to say :box2:

 

[BillyBatts]

Only one play for me tonight

Only one play for me tonight

Ran the numbers on my "system" and no games meet criteria tonight.

Only one play for me
Lakers +3

The Lakers are 25-10-2 ATS in their last 37 games as a road underdog. The Spurs are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The Spurs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.

Totals I had capped (just for reference, my number in bold))
Cha-Hou 194 Current line 190.5 Lean over

Det-Wash 200 Current line 199 no lean

LAC-Memp 199 Current line 199.5 no lean

LAL-SA 196 Current line 192.5 Lean over

Orl-Sac 204 Current line 206.5 lean under


Best of luck tonight fellas :toast:

 

[Joe_Vienna]

Final card

Clippers @ Grizzlies O199.5

BOLTA :0corn
Joe

 

[grindstone]

2-2 Last night

one play tonight
LA Clippers + 5.5

GLTA

 

[Slicer]

Hey Slicer,

Not to get this off track, but do you still have accuscore numbers? Have you been doing anything with them this year? If so, how has it been working out?

I have not been using it this year, we had a disagreement over Terms of Service when they took away certain rights to service I had and then offered them back to me at "extended" premium service price so I told them to shove it up their ass. Last year it was good for certain conference basketball, but overall last year was about a 50/50 split, certain conferences resulted in certain results like Big East UNDERS, A-10 = OVERS, MVC = OVERS, Big Ten = UNDERS, ACC = UNDERS were the majority that I remembered.

 

[grindstone]

2-2 Last night

one play tonight
LA Clippers + 5.5

GLTA

Anybody know why this mem/lac line went from mem-5 to mem- 6??? Have to keep my eye on this

 

[BillyBatts]

Anybody know why this mem/lac line went from mem-5 to mem- 6??? Have to keep my eye on this

I noticed that as well. I was leaning Clips, but that would worry me. This is the CLIPPERS:142smilie we're talking about, and Memphis has played great at home lately. I haven't seen any significant injuries or players resting either. :shrug:

BOL with your play. :toast:

 

[grindstone]

I noticed that as well. I was leaning Clips, but that would worry me. This is the CLIPPERS:142smilie we're talking about, and Memphis has played great at home lately. I haven't seen any significant injuries or players resting either. :shrug:

BOL with your play. :toast:

Kaman ruled out tonight for Clippers- tweaked back in the warmup.Therefore line is at LAC + 6