NBA TUES 01262010-Early Thoughts and Value Hunting

4

40seven

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Mar 18, 2009
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Tonight's card is shaping up fine.

For a small card I have several early leans.


The Bucks +8, reminds me of last night with the Clippers, this is alot of points and all the money is on the Mav's, look for a cover.

The Wiz +8, If I play this game and it is a largeif it will be small. I think it will fit my home dog system but it has two factors that say no play already, but it should be considered.

Early money is on the Bob's so I will wait to see, as is the early money on the TWolves, it may be a perfect bounce back for the Knickerbockers.

I am all but certain my POD will be the Bucks for 1U
 
J

jackdov

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Jan 25, 2010
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40seven said:
Tonight's card is shaping up fine.

For a small card I have several early leans.


The Bucks +8, reminds me of last night with the Clippers, this is alot of points and all the money is on the Mav's, look for a cover.

The Wiz +8, If I play this game and it is a largeif it will be small. I think it will fit my home dog system but it has two factors that say no play already, but it should be considered.

Early money is on the Bob's so I will wait to see, as is the early money on the TWolves, it may be a perfect bounce back for the Knickerbockers.

I am all but certain my POD will be the Bucks for 1U
Click to expand...

bol to you
 
JBrilman

JBrilman

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PHO/CHA

PHO/CHA

Here is my take on this game.

The Suns have been decent this year (small sample size) and in years past on b2b as they never exert to much energy on the defensive end. The problem with the Suns is when they run cold and every team does at some point in the game they can not score at all without any go to scorers. Amare is too content settling for jumpers and my guess is on a b2b even more so.

They now are facing a bobcats team which handed their ass to them not to long ago in Charlotte and they will be without Barbosa who played 25 minutes and dropped in 17 in the loss.

The entire starting team had a - in the +/- column and ranging anywhere from 18-30. Now Grant Hill is questionable and if he plays he is playing hurt. The Suns have match up problems all over the court with this Bobcats team and after leading Utah by 17 at one point last night and then scoring 19 in the 4th to blow the game and the cover I don't see them bouncing back tonight against a team they don't match up with and short handed.

Look for Jackson and Wallace to combine for 50+ tonight.

I like Charlotte +5.5 and ML
 
4

40seven

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3 Games tonight are JM plays

3 Games tonight are JM plays

These crazy JM followers can really mess with the data.

The Lakers, the Bob's and Twolves will have skewed support as they all do right now.

I look at the public as an important part of capping and will not play games that have massive support believing Vegas will not let this happen.

I am not expressing an opinion on JM or his plays
 
4

40seven

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JB Suns and Bob's matchup

JB Suns and Bob's matchup

I do agree with your opinion and the Bob's are a great B2B team and the Suns are bad in fact they have some horrible losses B2B.

But, the Bob's have not looked sharp since they MLK when they let the Kings back in the game, except when the Heat on a B2B died, they are also horrible B2B

The Bob's are only 3-17 on the road so they will not win but they only need to cover.

Not sure on the play I find it confusing. If I play this game it will be the Over.
 
B

barts185

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I guess I didn't realize that JM still had any followers after his outright frauds and scams.

Some people will never learn.

Having said that, I like the Lakers tonight. I think they want to get a solid win on the roadtrip.

I'm not concerned whether Artest plays or not, actually think they might be better if he doesn't play with the way he's playing lately and the whole issue over his shoes.

Jamison is now listed as questionable for the Wizards and I think that he would be a bigger loss for them.


added: I am concerned that the Lakers haven't done well either on the road or on the font half of a back-to-back this season.



Good Luck,
Bart
 
Last edited:
BillyBatts

BillyBatts

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Leans

Leans

2-2-1 overall last night, losing my POD with the Bobs, and system totals going 2-1-1.

Last 6 days for myself
10-6-1
POD's 3-1
System plays 5-2-1 (not advising plays, just keeping track for now.)

Numbers I've capped, mine in BOLD
LA-Wash 199 199.5 No lean
Min-NY 204 208 Lean under
Mil-Dal 196 198 No lean
Cha-Pho 215 209.5 System play over
GSW-Sac 220 220.5 No lean, but is Ellis out, and how much is he worth? :shrug:

My leans so far.:director:
Lakers -8 They have to cover on the road eventually don't they?
Bucks +7 Dallas terrible ATS at home, and Bucks playing decent of late. 1st game back for Mavs off the road trip
Charlotte +5.5 Same reasons you guys have stated above, also, Bobs are 5-1 ATS ona b2b playing a team on the 2nd night of a b2b. Just worry about thier legs after playing at Denver last night.
Cha-Suns over 209.5
Sac-GSW UNDER 220.5. Always dangerous playing a warriors under, but probably no Ellis, and Kings only avg 195.6 in last 5.


Gonna see if I can lock something in. kurby
 
BillyBatts

BillyBatts

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Locked in

Locked in

One play so far.

:padlock:

Mavs-Bucks OVER 197.5

Over is 14-3 in Bucks last 17 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Over is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 overall.
Over is 4-0 in Mavericks last 4 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
Over is 6-1-1 in Mavericks last 8 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
Over is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Over is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
Over is 4-1 in Mavericks last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Dallas.
Over is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings.
:scared

Last game at Milwaukee soard over 193


Maybe back with one or 2 more plays kurby
 
BillyBatts

BillyBatts

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Please and thanks

Please and thanks

Kings coming back home after a LONG east coast road trip, and a 6 game losing streak. Can someone please query a team on a 6 game losing streak, giving points this year and last year please?? I think the line is adjusted WAY too much because of Ellis's injury.
 
JBrilman

JBrilman

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BillyBatts said:
Kings coming back home after a LONG east coast road trip, and a 6 game losing streak. Can someone please query a team on a 6 game losing streak, giving points this year and last year please?? I think the line is adjusted WAY too much because of Ellis's injury.
Click to expand...

p:site=away and site=home and -6<=t:line<0 and p:streak<=-6 and 20051030<=date

SU: 11-14 (1.0)
ATS: 10-14-1 (-2.4) avg line: -3.4
O/U: 13-12-0 (-0.9) avg total: 197.2
 
BillyBatts

BillyBatts

IlliniBill
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I'm sorry

I'm sorry

JBrilman said:
p:site=away and site=home and -6<=t:line<0 and p:streak<=-6 and 20051030<=date

SU: 11-14 (1.0)
ATS: 10-14-1 (-2.4) avg line: -3.4
O/U: 13-12-0 (-0.9) avg total: 197.2
Click to expand...

Thanks for the info JB, but I have a little trouble reading these queries. :confused: I understand the SU and ATS obviusly, but tell me if I read this correctly.....

Teams at home or on the road with at least a 6 game losing streak, and giving at least 6 points, and since 2005?? thanks again.
 
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