NBA TUESDAY 03232010 - Early Thoughts & Value Hunting
- Thread starter frogster
- Start date
Thanks for getting this started
Thanks for getting this started
I like that one (Clippers) and the Bob's so far
Thanks for getting this started
I like that one (Clippers) and the Bob's so far
Denver on the first game of a TOUGH road trip
Denver on the first game of a TOUGH road trip
I think New York has been playing great basketball the last few games, and I cant believe I even just wrote that but it is true.
However Denver is embarking on a tough trip with 5 games in 7 nights against, NY, BOS, TOR, ORL, and DAL.
I think they will be motivated to put this one away early and I always like teams on the first game of a trip you usually get maximum effort.
The over looks good here as well but I missed the boat at 217 last night and not sure I can buy in at 219.5.
Other leans
LAC +10 (so hard to put my money on them)
IND +4 & ML
Denver on the first game of a TOUGH road trip
I think New York has been playing great basketball the last few games, and I cant believe I even just wrote that but it is true.
However Denver is embarking on a tough trip with 5 games in 7 nights against, NY, BOS, TOR, ORL, and DAL.
I think they will be motivated to put this one away early and I always like teams on the first game of a trip you usually get maximum effort.
The over looks good here as well but I missed the boat at 217 last night and not sure I can buy in at 219.5.
Other leans
LAC +10 (so hard to put my money on them)
IND +4 & ML
I guess you get to decide which horrible stat you want to fade:
LAC against teams with a win percentage of 60 to 70.
SU: 2-13 (-14.3)
ATS: 5-10-0 (-6.5) avg line: 7.9
O/U: 10-4-1 (4.1) avg total: 200.5
On the road in this spot
SU: 0-9 (-17.6)
ATS: 3-6-0 (-6.8) avg line: 10.8
O/U: 5-3-1 (2.3) avg total: 200.8
So they lose by an average of 14.4 points overall and 17.6 points on the road.
As bad as they are overall at home
SU: 24-11 (1.5)
ATS: 7-27-1 (-6.0) avg line: -7.5
O/U: 21-14-0 (0.9) avg total: 200.8
DAL is almost perfect (and really they are perfect, the one game is an early season anomoly) playing at home against teams with a win percentage below .500
SU: 13-3 (1.4)
ATS: 1-15-0 (-8.4) avg line: -9.8
O/U: 10-6-0 (0.4) avg total: 203.1
Note that the one cover was on 11/03/09 when they played UTA and UTA happened to be 1-2.
So they win by an average of 1.5 points.
Good Luck,
Bart
perhaps I will be on both 6.5 point faves tonight!
I do fear the look ahead aspect of the Denver game...
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Found this if you have not seen it
Found this if you have not seen it
Sweet 16 and Elite Eight Betting Trends
By MARC L
There is nothing sweeter this time of the year than being alive in the NCAA Tournament. It?s on to the Sweet 16 and, hopefully, the Elite Eight for those teams that survived the opening two rounds.
Here are notes and trends related to the teams and seeds still kicking around:
Sweet 16 Trends:
? One-seed faves of less than 11 points off back to back ATS wins are 10-2 ATS
? Two-seeds are 12-5 ATS vs. opponents off a SU dog win
? Four-seed dogs are 2-8 ATS vs. foes off back to back ATS wins
? Five-seeds are 1-4 ATS vs. foes off back to back ATS wins
? Six-seeds off a double digit straight up win are 2-6 ATS
? Nine or higher seed dogs greater than two points are 3-10 ATS
? Favorites off a straight up win of 30 points or more are 4-0 ATS
? Favorites off back to back straight up wins of 15 points or more are 10-2 ATS
? Underdogs who scored less than 65 points last game are 7-3 ATS
? Underdogs off back to back dog wins are 2-9 ATS
? Underdogs who scored less than 85 points last game are 2-7 ATS
Best Team SU & ATS records in this round
Xavier: 3-0 ATS, Michigan St: 5-1 SU & ATS, Kentucky: 10-2 SU / 9-3 ATS, West Virginia: 3-1 ATS
Worst Team SU & ATS records in this round
Butler: 0-3 SU / 1-2 ATS, Tennessee: 0-3 SU / 1-2 ATS, Washington: 0-3 SU, Duke: 1-5 SU & ATS, Syracuse: 1-4 SU / 0-4-1 ATS, Purdue: 1-3 SU & ATS.
Best Conference ATS records in this round
Atlantic 10: 6-0, SEC: 8-2 as dogs, Big Ten: 14-5.
Worst Conference ATS records in this round
Big East: 0-5 as faves 7 points or less, Pac 10: 1-6 as dogs, Big 12: 1-5 as faves of less than 10 points, ACC: 3-11 as faves of 8 points or less.
Elite Eight trends
? One-seed faves greater than 7 points are 0-7 ATS vs. foe off back to back ATS wins
? Two-seeds are 2-9-1 ATS off a double-digit ATS win
? Three-seeds are 1-4 ATS
? Four-seeds are 7-1 ATS
? Five-seeds are 4-0 SU and ATS
? Six-seeds are 0-6 SU
? Eight or higher seeds are 6-2-2 ATS
? Teams off back to back ATS losses are 6-2 ATS
? Faves who scored less than 65 points last game are 0-5 ATS
? Dogs off three straight double digit wins are 1-4-1 ATS
? Dogs who scored less than 85 points last game are 1-4 ATS
Coach me if you can
? Jim Boeheim is 1-5-1 ATS in Sweet 16 games, but 6-0 ATS from the Elite Eight out.
? Tom Izzo is 11-3 SU and 9-4-1 ATS in Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games.
? Bob Huggins is 1-9 ATS as an NCAA tourney dog or favorite of less than two points.
__________________
Found this if you have not seen it
Sweet 16 and Elite Eight Betting Trends
By MARC L
There is nothing sweeter this time of the year than being alive in the NCAA Tournament. It?s on to the Sweet 16 and, hopefully, the Elite Eight for those teams that survived the opening two rounds.
Here are notes and trends related to the teams and seeds still kicking around:
Sweet 16 Trends:
? One-seed faves of less than 11 points off back to back ATS wins are 10-2 ATS
? Two-seeds are 12-5 ATS vs. opponents off a SU dog win
? Four-seed dogs are 2-8 ATS vs. foes off back to back ATS wins
? Five-seeds are 1-4 ATS vs. foes off back to back ATS wins
? Six-seeds off a double digit straight up win are 2-6 ATS
? Nine or higher seed dogs greater than two points are 3-10 ATS
? Favorites off a straight up win of 30 points or more are 4-0 ATS
? Favorites off back to back straight up wins of 15 points or more are 10-2 ATS
? Underdogs who scored less than 65 points last game are 7-3 ATS
? Underdogs off back to back dog wins are 2-9 ATS
? Underdogs who scored less than 85 points last game are 2-7 ATS
Best Team SU & ATS records in this round
Xavier: 3-0 ATS, Michigan St: 5-1 SU & ATS, Kentucky: 10-2 SU / 9-3 ATS, West Virginia: 3-1 ATS
Worst Team SU & ATS records in this round
Butler: 0-3 SU / 1-2 ATS, Tennessee: 0-3 SU / 1-2 ATS, Washington: 0-3 SU, Duke: 1-5 SU & ATS, Syracuse: 1-4 SU / 0-4-1 ATS, Purdue: 1-3 SU & ATS.
Best Conference ATS records in this round
Atlantic 10: 6-0, SEC: 8-2 as dogs, Big Ten: 14-5.
Worst Conference ATS records in this round
Big East: 0-5 as faves 7 points or less, Pac 10: 1-6 as dogs, Big 12: 1-5 as faves of less than 10 points, ACC: 3-11 as faves of 8 points or less.
Elite Eight trends
? One-seed faves greater than 7 points are 0-7 ATS vs. foe off back to back ATS wins
? Two-seeds are 2-9-1 ATS off a double-digit ATS win
? Three-seeds are 1-4 ATS
? Four-seeds are 7-1 ATS
? Five-seeds are 4-0 SU and ATS
? Six-seeds are 0-6 SU
? Eight or higher seeds are 6-2-2 ATS
? Teams off back to back ATS losses are 6-2 ATS
? Faves who scored less than 65 points last game are 0-5 ATS
? Dogs off three straight double digit wins are 1-4-1 ATS
? Dogs who scored less than 85 points last game are 1-4 ATS
Coach me if you can
? Jim Boeheim is 1-5-1 ATS in Sweet 16 games, but 6-0 ATS from the Elite Eight out.
? Tom Izzo is 11-3 SU and 9-4-1 ATS in Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games.
? Bob Huggins is 1-9 ATS as an NCAA tourney dog or favorite of less than two points.
__________________
Not written by me, just sharing what I found surfing the net.
PS. love the sweet sixteen information, thanks.
TOM FREESE
Clippers at Mavs
Pick: Clippers +10
This is hard to understand. The Dallas Mavericks are 0-26-1 ATS as favorites at home of 4 or more points. Factor in that NBA double digit favorites are just 66-108 ATS this year. Dallas is led in scoring with Dirk Nowitzki and his 24.9 points a game. Guard Jason Terry scores 17 points a game. The Mavericks score 101.6 points a game. Dallas is 5-16-1 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in their last game and they are 0-7 ATS on Tuesday. The Clippers are led in scoring by Center Chris Kaman and his 18.7 points and 9.1 rebounds a game. Shooting Guard Eric Gordon scores 17.1 points a game. Point guard Baron Davis scores 15.2 points and 7.9 assists a game. Shooting guard Rasual Butler scores 12 points a game. The underdog in this series is 4-1 ATS the last 5 meetings and the road team is 4-0 ATS the last 4 meetings. 20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH PLAY ON LA CLIPPERS +
PS. love the sweet sixteen information, thanks.
TOM FREESE
Clippers at Mavs
Pick: Clippers +10
This is hard to understand. The Dallas Mavericks are 0-26-1 ATS as favorites at home of 4 or more points. Factor in that NBA double digit favorites are just 66-108 ATS this year. Dallas is led in scoring with Dirk Nowitzki and his 24.9 points a game. Guard Jason Terry scores 17 points a game. The Mavericks score 101.6 points a game. Dallas is 5-16-1 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in their last game and they are 0-7 ATS on Tuesday. The Clippers are led in scoring by Center Chris Kaman and his 18.7 points and 9.1 rebounds a game. Shooting Guard Eric Gordon scores 17.1 points a game. Point guard Baron Davis scores 15.2 points and 7.9 assists a game. Shooting guard Rasual Butler scores 12 points a game. The underdog in this series is 4-1 ATS the last 5 meetings and the road team is 4-0 ATS the last 4 meetings. 20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH PLAY ON LA CLIPPERS +
- Mar 18, 2009
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all stats above point to an over in this game - any other support for over from anyone?
Here' s some stats supporting the over in the Mavs game:
Over is 7-2 in DAL last 9 overall.
Over is 6-2 in DAL last 8 home games
LA CLIPPERS: 14-5 Over revenging home loss
Here's some head to head stats:
Under is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings.
Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Dallas.
Over is 7-2 in DAL last 9 overall.
Over is 6-2 in DAL last 8 home games
LA CLIPPERS: 14-5 Over revenging home loss
Here's some head to head stats:
Under is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings.
Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Dallas.
- Mar 18, 2009
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2 plays tonight
Ind/Det U207
Char/NYK U220 (will wait see If I can get better as line is still rising)
NYK + 7
GLTA
Ind/Det U207
Char/NYK U220 (will wait see If I can get better as line is still rising)
NYK + 7
GLTA
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- Mar 18, 2009
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Hey Boss
Knicks play the Nug's and the Bob's play the Wiz.
you like the Den/NYK game just making sure?
- Mar 18, 2009
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Pacers under again!! I can't stand betting under on that team!! Dont make me do it!!
- Mar 18, 2009
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