NBA Tuesday

[GM]

Yesterday: 1-1
YTD NBA: 11-6
Best Bets: 2-1

Sac blows a healthy first half lead to miss the 1H cover by a half point...and Phoenix almost blows it too, but manages to smoke 'em in OT. A split for yesterday. Five picks for today...


Miami -1? vs Boston
Boston/Miami Under 177?

What a choice here...a team that has lost 8 straight, vs a team that has lost 4 straight. Well, despite their troubles, I still think Miami is the better team, and to have to lay so few pts at home is nice.

Boston hasn't won a road game since opening night, and their numbers on the road, like last year, are pretty unimpressive. If they can't win @ Atlanta or Washington, I don't see much reason to expect them to win here.

And as bad as Miami has looked, they still have one of the top-rated defenses in the league, allowing over 92 pts just twice all year. Boston has played against a TON of teams with the absolute worst defences in the league. The only two times they played against Top 10 defences (vs NJ, vs Tor) they lost. Considering the Celtics have gone into a scoring funk recently anyways, I see them having extreme difficulty putting the ball in the hoop here...so I will go with both Miami and the Under, as I am pretty sure the Heat aren't going to be lighting it up either.

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Chicago +12 at New Jersey

The Bulls may not win but they cover a lot. They've lost 9 in a row, but of those last 7 losses they've covered the spread all but one time. They've played against similar competition for a while now. Also NJ home off the 4-game roadie with 1 days rest, after crossing the country, and I think it's asking a bit much for the Nets to cover this big a number.

More to come in a few minutes....

 

[GM]

Golden State/Dallas Over 198

GS coming off three straight games of playing against some of the toughest D in the league, now face the 4th worst D in the league. That usually means offensive production booms. GS is also facing the best offence they have seen in 12 games. The only comparable offence they have faced recently is the Lakers, who chalked up 106 against them.

For Dallas the opponent is similar to what they have seen lately. Five of their last seven games have gone over this total, with another one landing right on 198. These trends should continue tonight. The linemaker has made the total a bit higher than I wanted, but I still think there is value in the Over.

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Minnesota -1? at Seattle

Minnesota is starting to prove they are a serious force to be reckoned with, and I don't see the Sonics hanging with them. The Sonics have lost to every "positive ranking" team they have played this year but one, and most of those losses haven't been close. (Positive ranking being good or currently hot teams, according to my numbers). The Sonics have struggled against teams that have better-than-average offences, and the Wolves have one of the best O's in the league.

I'm a bit concerned that Minnesota has played some close games on the road, but I think they are more than capable of handling whatever Seattle can throw at them.

Good luck.