I've been working on something for tonight and want to make sure readers have a chance to consider the following. I will also post this on my page, which should be updated shortly:
HOLIDAYS AND THEIR IMPACT ON NBA GAMES:
Pro athletes are people, too. They have the same emotional responses as the rest of us when it comes to holidays. They look forward to reuniting with friends and family.
How might this apply to sports handicapping?
I first became aware of the disruption of special circumstances on NBA games the day after last year's Super Bowl. I noticed that the day after the Super Bowl, the overwhelming majority of NBA games went UNDER the total. I theorized that virtually EVERY NBA athlete was watching the Super Bowl the day before (just like the rest of us). Many attended Super Bowl parties which lasted until late at night (especially on the East Coast), and were probably drinking alcohol, perhaps to excess, as well. I suspected the carryover effect would be a sluggish performance for these athletes in the following game (the "day after"). Athletes come off a game, travel, drink and go to parties, then travel again to another game. That's a recipee for an off night. I'll have a write-up about this topic later (when the Super Bowl comes).
So, about Thanksgiving:
There are 11 NBA games tonight. Nine of these games involve teams where BOTH teams are off tomorrow. My theory is that players will be looking at tonight's game just a bit differently than normal. Many players will immediately board airplanes and fly home to be with family for the holiday. These are wealthy athletes who can afford to go home to WHEREVER, and will be eager to show off at the family feast the next day. Road teams are particularly prone to disruptions. In other words, tonight's game does not fit a normal psychological/physical mid-week pattern for games. Normal letdowns and emotional responses which usually apply to these games are largely irrelevant here. This is not just another NBA night.
I went back and looked at WHAT HAPPENS the night before Thanksgiving in NBA games. What I observed is that the game just prior to the holidays strongly favors home teams. Once the visitor in these games falls behind, they tend to give up quickly. The home team, knowing family members are usually in the audience try to hammer the opponent. The visitor has less motivation. The game's pace slows down, and the home team often wins big.
Consider that of the 11 NBA games last year...played on Nov. 22 (2000):
-- the Home team won 9 games outright (of the two home losses, Portland was one of the road teams -- which was a -2 road favorite?..no surprise the Blazers would be one of the road teams to win).
-- the home team won those 9 games by the following point margins:
15, 15, 4, 1, 27, 36, 12, 20, and 29
Conclusion: Most of these games are not close. Home teams usually roll. Of course, I do admit that 11 games is not enough of an indicator to predict future results, but keep this in mind when looking at tonight's card. Be very careful about taking points. You may see a number of blowouts tonight.
I also uncovered something else very interesting, which will determine my plays for tonight:
These games usually go UNDER the total!
Six of last year's 11 games scored 179 points or less (bad shooting night for the majority of teams). I decided to track this back as far as possible. In the games played the night before Thanksgiving, here are the results for TOTALS:
2000 -- 7 UNDERS, 4 OVERS
1999 -- 7 UNDERS, 2 OVERS
1998 -- Data not available (my home database doesn't have games in the first part of 1998, and I couldn't locate totals ATS)
1997 -- 5 UNDERS, 4 OVERS
That's 19 UNDERS and 10 OVERS in the pre-holiday games for the last 3 seasons (available). This is not just some superfluous trend. I do believe athletes are effected by special circumstances -- the Super Bowl (essentially, a national holiday), Martin Luther King Day (many mid-day games are played), Christmas, and Thanksgiving.
I will make an across the board play on the UNDERS tonight. See plays at the page.
Hopefuly, this analysis will help shape some thoughts about tonight's plays -- for the better.
-- Nolan Dalla
HOLIDAYS AND THEIR IMPACT ON NBA GAMES:
Pro athletes are people, too. They have the same emotional responses as the rest of us when it comes to holidays. They look forward to reuniting with friends and family.
How might this apply to sports handicapping?
I first became aware of the disruption of special circumstances on NBA games the day after last year's Super Bowl. I noticed that the day after the Super Bowl, the overwhelming majority of NBA games went UNDER the total. I theorized that virtually EVERY NBA athlete was watching the Super Bowl the day before (just like the rest of us). Many attended Super Bowl parties which lasted until late at night (especially on the East Coast), and were probably drinking alcohol, perhaps to excess, as well. I suspected the carryover effect would be a sluggish performance for these athletes in the following game (the "day after"). Athletes come off a game, travel, drink and go to parties, then travel again to another game. That's a recipee for an off night. I'll have a write-up about this topic later (when the Super Bowl comes).
So, about Thanksgiving:
There are 11 NBA games tonight. Nine of these games involve teams where BOTH teams are off tomorrow. My theory is that players will be looking at tonight's game just a bit differently than normal. Many players will immediately board airplanes and fly home to be with family for the holiday. These are wealthy athletes who can afford to go home to WHEREVER, and will be eager to show off at the family feast the next day. Road teams are particularly prone to disruptions. In other words, tonight's game does not fit a normal psychological/physical mid-week pattern for games. Normal letdowns and emotional responses which usually apply to these games are largely irrelevant here. This is not just another NBA night.
I went back and looked at WHAT HAPPENS the night before Thanksgiving in NBA games. What I observed is that the game just prior to the holidays strongly favors home teams. Once the visitor in these games falls behind, they tend to give up quickly. The home team, knowing family members are usually in the audience try to hammer the opponent. The visitor has less motivation. The game's pace slows down, and the home team often wins big.
Consider that of the 11 NBA games last year...played on Nov. 22 (2000):
-- the Home team won 9 games outright (of the two home losses, Portland was one of the road teams -- which was a -2 road favorite?..no surprise the Blazers would be one of the road teams to win).
-- the home team won those 9 games by the following point margins:
15, 15, 4, 1, 27, 36, 12, 20, and 29
Conclusion: Most of these games are not close. Home teams usually roll. Of course, I do admit that 11 games is not enough of an indicator to predict future results, but keep this in mind when looking at tonight's card. Be very careful about taking points. You may see a number of blowouts tonight.
I also uncovered something else very interesting, which will determine my plays for tonight:
These games usually go UNDER the total!
Six of last year's 11 games scored 179 points or less (bad shooting night for the majority of teams). I decided to track this back as far as possible. In the games played the night before Thanksgiving, here are the results for TOTALS:
2000 -- 7 UNDERS, 4 OVERS
1999 -- 7 UNDERS, 2 OVERS
1998 -- Data not available (my home database doesn't have games in the first part of 1998, and I couldn't locate totals ATS)
1997 -- 5 UNDERS, 4 OVERS
That's 19 UNDERS and 10 OVERS in the pre-holiday games for the last 3 seasons (available). This is not just some superfluous trend. I do believe athletes are effected by special circumstances -- the Super Bowl (essentially, a national holiday), Martin Luther King Day (many mid-day games are played), Christmas, and Thanksgiving.
I will make an across the board play on the UNDERS tonight. See plays at the page.
Hopefuly, this analysis will help shape some thoughts about tonight's plays -- for the better.
-- Nolan Dalla
