Nice calls last night gents. I wish I would have unloaded in IA like I wanted to - I need to stop worrying about what touts are on....I did grab them 2H and squeaked that out:violin:
I know this is the wrong forum but I have been hitting pretty well in the Bowls lately - and want to contribute somehow to the goodness in this thread. I have a mancrush on LeFevour and I think CMU gets it done laying 2.5 tonight. Here is the write-up from the same guy that I posted yesterday - he is something like 11-2 in the second half of the Bowl extravaganza (he was about 50/50 during 1H). BOL gents.
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The powers of the MAC and Sun Belt conferences meet in the GMAC Bowl as Central Michigan takes on Troy.
It's Dan Lefevour's last game at QB for Central Michigan, a program he helped establish on the college football map. This will be Lefevour's third coach at Central Mich as he started with Brian Kelly who left for Cincinnati and now his coach from this season, Butch Jones, followed in Kelly's footsteps replacing Kelly at Cincinnati leaving interim coach, Steve Stripling to coach this game. It's been a nice year to close out the career of Lefevour, a year in which he has stayed healthy, his team has been winning, and he has put up the type of numbers he is capable of. CMU's only two blemishes on their record this season came to schools from big conferences, Boston College and Arizona but otherwise CMU has been a smooth running machine including knocking off Michigan State in East Lansing. Aside from their offense which has been explosive throughout Lefevour's career, the Chippewas have played nice defense, a defense which has been under rated and flying under the radar, a defense that allows just 17.8 points per game and ranks 21st in the country in that category. CMU has been post season and MAC Championship game regulars so playing in a game where they have center stage with no there games being played that night shouldn't even factor in as far as any nerves.
Troy had a slow start to the eason and as much as they dominated the Sun Belt a year ago and as many returning players as they had, it was unsure if they were going to repeat the same kind of success they had become accustomed to. Troy started the season with a surprising loss at Bowling Green and then went into the Swamp and got stomped by the Florida Gators to start 0-2. Troy then went on to win nine of their last 10 games including all eight of their Sun Belt Conference games to win the conference outright. The Trojans third loss also cam out of conference, at Arkansas, and once again it wasn't even close. What we saw form Troy this year is essentially a team whose offense could move the ball and score a lot of points but the defense had trouble stopping anyone. Offensively Troy averaged 475 yards a game, good enough for 6th in the country and also averaged 31.7 point per game. The Trojans 334 yards in the air per game was fifth best in college football this season. The defense just didn't fare nearly as well giving up 404 yards per game and ranking them 97th and improving to only 87th in points allowed per game at over 28. Their pass defense was ranked a pitiful 113th giving up 265 yards each time out.
Central Michigan has been solid for a while and their 39-16-3 record against the number is a testament to that. Though the Chippewas didn't cover in their last game, they are 11-2-1 against the spread following a game which they didn't cover. Troy is 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games overall and 5-2 against the spread when playing teams with a winning record but they are 1-4 against the spread when playing a non conference opponent.
This game worked out nicely as it showcases two teams from conferences not likely to be playing in a BCS Bowl game in the near future but also two teams who have become part of the college football landscape by dominating their conferences and have played teams from some of the bigger BCS conferences tough over the past few years. This game give them exposure they both deserve and have earned. The issue we have here is Central Michigan is balanced both offensively and defensively and Troy simply isn't. CMU has played decently against the tougher opponent while Troy has been walked on when called to step it up. I don't think this game is close unless it really turns into a shoot out but I just don't see Troy stopping or slowing down CMU but I can see where Central Michigan can stop or at least slow down Troy.
Mitch's Pick: Central Michigan - 3
