NBA WEDNESDAY- 112509-Value Hunting & Early Thoughts

[Slicer]

NCAA GEM OF THE DAY: 4-1

Washington State Cougars -10 vs Alaska Anchorage.

The Seawolves, the only Division II team and the only school to appear in every Carrs/Safeway Great Alaska Shootout, sport a 29-64 (.312) all-time mark in the tournament, including 7-14 in the last seven years.

the Cougars are led by a pair of high-flying sophomores in G Klay Thompson (27.0 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 2.3 apg, .533 FG, .538 3FG) and F DeAngelo Casto (13.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.3 bpg, .552 FG)

The Seawolves have 1 scorer above double digits this year in C?Malcolm Campbell, 6-9, 265, So. (15.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.0 bpg, 14-21 FG).

The Coug's do a great job at not turning the ball over, in their 3 games this season they have had 7,18,9 TO's. They are shooting FT's as a team at 75% and have outrebounded all but 1 of their opponents. Too much size, speed, talent for the Seawolves in the opening round of the Alaska Shootout.

COUGS -10 Locked at 1am.

NBA:

Wait and see on opening lines in the morning

 

[BIGWave]

NCAA GEM OF THE DAY: 4-1

Washington State Cougars -10 vs Alaska Anchorage.

COUGS -10 Locked at 1am.

NBA:

Wait and see on opening lines in the morning

Initial lines that jump to me:

CHAR-2 or 2.5 TOP PLAY
HOU-4 wow - Dallas has dominated this series, but this line begs for Dallas action. If this line doesn't move overnight I will be suspicious.
MINN+9 expect massive action on DEN after the expected beat down tonight. Again will be watching this line overnight to see some expected movement.

Good night all.

 

[Ools]

Philly?

Philly?

Phillly - Boston -- Boston embarrased the 76ers by 30 a few weeks back. Philly was pathetic in that one. Currently the public pretty split on this one too - could be value in Philly at +12.5. Boston has been lazy to the number not covering 5 in a row and 8 of last 9...but maybe that is why this line isnt higher?
Philly 3 straight covers as a dog too.

 

[Ools]

Per game average?

Per game average?

scoring seems a little high this year so far - anyone have the avg per game total this year so far and last seasons avg total to compare? Last night I think only 3 of 12 teams were held to less than 100, but o/u still took an even split.

 

[Ools]

Initial lines that jump to me:

CHAR-2 or 2.5 TOP PLAY
HOU-4 wow - Dallas has dominated this series, but this line begs for Dallas action. If this line doesn't move overnight I will be suspicious.
MINN+9 expect massive action on DEN after the expected beat down tonight. Again will be watching this line overnight to see some expected movement.

Good night all.

Like houston, line hasnt moved yet though. NBA_Calc across street has opposites as 3 unit play with Denver and he is hitting them at nice clip...not sure of his "system" though??

 

[pfj]

Initial lines that jump to me:

CHAR-2 or 2.5 TOP PLAY
HOU-4 wow - Dallas has dominated this series, but this line begs for Dallas action. If this line doesn't move overnight I will be suspicious.
MINN+9 expect massive action on DEN after the expected beat down tonight. Again will be watching this line overnight to see some expected movement.

Good night all.

Minor movement so far char to -2.5 although public on toronto. Usually I don't care what public is doing to see what side I am on. Hou has maintained at -4 so far public hitting dallas HARD @ 88% so far. You were right about Denver public is hitting that hard as well with 88% but line started originally last night at -9 and moved to -8.5.

 

[pfj]

Like houston, line hasnt moved yet though. NBA_Calc across street has opposites as 3 unit play with Denver and he is hitting them at nice clip...not sure of his "system" though??

I tailed his system for a lil while last year but it got to a point where it went cold for a few weeks at a time.

 

[pfj]

NCAA GEM OF THE DAY: 4-1

Washington State Cougars -10 vs Alaska Anchorage.

The Seawolves, the only Division II team and the only school to appear in every Carrs/Safeway Great Alaska Shootout, sport a 29-64 (.312) all-time mark in the tournament, including 7-14 in the last seven years.

the Cougars are led by a pair of high-flying sophomores in G Klay Thompson (27.0 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 2.3 apg, .533 FG, .538 3FG) and F DeAngelo Casto (13.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.3 bpg, .552 FG)

The Seawolves have 1 scorer above double digits this year in C?Malcolm Campbell, 6-9, 265, So. (15.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.0 bpg, 14-21 FG).

The Coug's do a great job at not turning the ball over, in their 3 games this season they have had 7,18,9 TO's. They are shooting FT's as a team at 75% and have outrebounded all but 1 of their opponents. Too much size, speed, talent for the Seawolves in the opening round of the Alaska Shootout.

COUGS -10 Locked at 1am.

NBA:

Wait and see on opening lines in the morning

moneyline dropped on this one from -600 to -500 in an hour

 

[LookKaPyPy]

Dallas is a bad, bad situational tonight. I want to see that line dip under 3 and I'm all over it, but the books aren't budging.

Another bad situational is GSW, after an away win as big dawg, playing as big dawg away on no rest. Add the fact that they only played 6ppl (3 with 48mins) last night and that Spurs are monsters as big favs, at home, under the Pop and this one is Spurs by 15+
Any line under 10 is a bet, 10-14 also, little smaller tho.

 

[Slicer]

Moneylines can drop easily with very little cash on a dog, with exposure at +450 or more on a game that drives very little action, books will adjust a ML on a small bet.

It would take more money to drop say AZ State vs. Duke on the ML cause books would have a good amount of action on the game ATS and they can balance the action out better. On a game like Wash St vs Alaska, someone is taking a shot with the "home" team and thus they are dropping the ML to offset a serious loss potential if the seahawks were to win. I wouldn't read too much into it, actually it doesn't matter if the ML dropped to me, I'm locked in.

 

[LookKaPyPy]

Spurs -15...no go for wishful thinking

 

[pfj]

Moneylines can drop easily with very little cash on a dog, with exposure at +450 or more on a game that drives very little action, books will adjust a ML on a small bet.

It would take more money to drop say AZ State vs. Duke on the ML cause books would have a good amount of action on the game ATS and they can balance the action out better. On a game like Wash St vs Alaska, someone is taking a shot with the "home" team and thus they are dropping the ML to offset a serious loss potential if the seahawks were to win. I wouldn't read too much into it, actually it doesn't matter if the ML dropped to me, I'm locked in.

ok good stuff slicer. im new to it just started all this last year so learning and the reason I come into this forum. Good stuff makes perfect sense more $$ flying around on more popular teams versus the teams in this game. good stuff keep em coming my man much appreciated :toast:

 

[granpa]

Minny/Denver U

Minny/Denver U

I think Minny/Den under needs a serious look. TWolves averaging 85 pts last 10 games and giving up 102 last 10 with one route by GS of 146. Nuggets coming off NJ last night and traveling.

 

[ChumpChange]

One play for me today ... GS / SA under 214.5

gobble gobble gobble ... Happy Thanksgiving

 

[ces]

As I recall from last season you were very strong with your "gems". Thx and continued success.:toast:

 

[frogster]

Hi Slicer, great information on the NCAA Gem of the Day. What team and when was the one loss and by how much? Thank you for the reply ahead of time. I just might tail you in this Wash. St game vs Anchorage.

 

[axp59]

scoring seems a little high this year so far - anyone have the avg per game total this year so far and last seasons avg total to compare? Last night I think only 3 of 12 teams were held to less than 100, but o/u still took an even split.

Actually lowe this year at 99.1

2008= 99.7

 

[BillyBatts]

Leans

Leans

1-1 last night thanks to the :s5: in Washington. Still kicking myself for not taking Toronto, hate when I "overthink" plays. :mj16:

Leans for tonight

Bobs -2.5 and under 194.5
Pacers-5.5
Philly +12.5
Miami +9
Hornets -2
Dal-Hou over 201.5
Queens -4


Be back in a bit after I take a closer look at these.

 

[Slicer]

Hi Slicer, great information on the NCAA Gem of the Day. What team and when was the one loss and by how much? Thank you for the reply ahead of time. I just might tail you in this Wash. St game vs Anchorage.

I lost on St. Joe's +15.5 against Purdue, St. Joe's down by 1 at the half, got blown out in 2nd half, believe they ended up losing by 25, so 9.5 pt loss on the spread. Believe that game was 3-4 days ago.

 

[Slicer]

One play for me today ... GS / SA under 214.5

gobble gobble gobble ... Happy Thanksgiving

I like this one as well, it caught my eye, making this my NBA POD for 1/4 unit.:mj06: