NBA Wednesday 123009- Early Thoughts & Value Hunting

[Slicer]

NCAA GEM OF THE DAY 19-15-1 (55.88%)

Last Week 3-3-1

Tough week that juiced out, was disappointing to get the push a couple days ago as Depaul managed 3 pts in last 5 minutes of the game against Pitt, last night RI was a complete disaster in the 2nd half, just a pitiful performance, too bad they won by 1 on last second tip was hoping they would lose SU for playing so bad. Overall 6-5 on the entire card last night.

WEDNESDAY'S GEM OF THE DAY: South Carolina @ Boston College -4.5

The Eagles get a home game against the Gamecocks tonight with both teams coming off the X-mas Break. The Eagles are the ACC's 2nd best rebounding team with a +9.3 avg. They have the size advantage in this game and with a common opponent victory over Miami FL compared with a 15 pt loss by the Gamecocks to Miami earlier in the year (where 17 pts were scored by players that are out for tonight for the Gamecocks), I'm looking for BC to come out focused and hyped at home in preparation for the ACC Season.

Other card plays:

Baylor -3.5 (almost the POD)
Uconn +1
Pepperdine +13
UAB/Virginia Over 126

NBA:
Mil/Orl Under 194.5 - Can't see Mil hitting 85
Miami -2
Portland -6.5 (Best Bet) Look for strong rebound at home tonight.

 

[Ools]

Interesting on college hoops...

Interesting on college hoops...

This is vs the spread...a guy (from across the street)has gone back 3 years and tracked all college BB streaks and here are the results:

W L % unit

3-0 Teams 461 480 49.0% -67


4-0 Teams 278 202 57.9% 55.8


5-0 Teams 120 82 59.4% 29.8


6-0 teams 41 41 50.0% -4.1


7-0 teams 26 15 63.4% 9.5


8-0 teams 11 4 73.3% 6.6




0-3 Teams 484 455 51.5% -16.5


0-4 teams 246 209 54.1% 16.1


0-5 teams 121 88 57.9% 24.2


0-6 teams 53 35 60.2% 14.5


0-7 teams 19 16 54.3% 1.4


0-8 teams 9 7 56.3% 1.3

This is a "streak buster theory" figuring the books start making hot teams more expensive to bet...I still situational cap games, but I have added this into the mix whenever teams are beyond 4-0 or 0-4 in an ATS streak.

I thought I would share.

 

[logan]

Early Leans

noh ov 190.5
port ov 190
min un 200.5

My CBB POD

UAB + 2.5

 

[ChumpChange]

I have no play for tonight ( yet ) ... those of you that are contemplating a play on the Cleveland / Atlanta game , make note of the fact that today is LeBron James' 25th birthday ... look for him to score 40 ++ tonight !!! I don't play NBA sides so I have no opinion !!!

Good Luck tonight all you nice people ... if I come up with a play I'll be back later !!!

 

[logan]

Early Leans

noh ov 190.5
port ov 190
min un 200.5

My CBB POD

UAB + 2.5

Looks like I should have playd the noh game early as it is now 193 so no play there.

I don't see much value at all tonight. My only NBA play port ov 190 very small.

G/l everyone

 

[grindstone]

Got one so far

Milw + 10.5

GLTA

 

[Joe_Vienna]

I have no play for tonight ( yet ) ... those of you that are contemplating a play on the Cleveland / Atlanta game , make note of the fact that today is LeBron James' 25th birthday ... look for him to score 40 ++ tonight !!! I don't play NBA sides so I have no opinion !!!

Good Luck tonight all you nice people ... if I come up with a play I'll be back later !!!

I just looked: The Cavs never won a game on LeBron's birthday :scared

<table bgcolor="#ffffff"><tbody><tr><th>Date</th><th>Team</th><th>Opp</th><th>Site</th><th>Final</th><th>Rest</th><th>FG%</th><th>Line</th><th>Total</th><th>SUm</th><th>ATSm</th><th>OUm</th><th>DPS</th><th>DPA</th><th>SUr</th><th>ATSr</th><th>OUr</th><th>ot</th></tr> <tr> <td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">20031230</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f5f5f5">CLE</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">IND</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f5f5f5">H</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">89-92</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f5f5f5">1&0</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">52-38</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f5f5f5">+2'</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">+177'</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f5f5f5">-3</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">-0.5</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f5f5f5">3.5</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">1.5</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f5f5f5">2.0</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">L</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f5f5f5">L</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">O</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f5f5f5">
</td></tr></tbody></table><table bgcolor="#ffffff"><tbody><tr><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">20061230</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f5f5f5">CLE</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">CHI</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f5f5f5">A</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">96-103</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f5f5f5">0&0</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">45-49</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f5f5f5">+5</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">+189'</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f5f5f5">-7</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">-2.0</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f5f5f5">9.5</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">3.8</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f5f5f5">5.8</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">L</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f5f5f5">L</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">O</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f5f5f5">
</td></tr></tbody></table><table bgcolor="#ffffff"><tbody><tr><td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">20081230</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f5f5f5">CLE</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">MIA</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f5f5f5">A</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">95-104</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f5f5f5">1&1</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">46-44</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f5f5f5">-5</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">+183</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f5f5f5">-9</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">-14.0</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f5f5f5">16.0</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">1.0</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f5f5f5">15.0</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">L</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f5f5f5">L</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff">O</td> <td align="center" bgcolor="#f5f5f5">
</td></tr></tbody></table>
:violin:

 

[BillyBatts]

Leans

Leans

I'd like to thank Chump for the under last night, I tailed when I started seeing reverse line movement and realized it was a b2b home in home. :toast:
Unfortunately took the:mj12: Wizz aslo, so a break even night.

Leans for tonight
Pacers +3
Twolves +7.5
Hornets +1
Phi-Sac over 205
Tor-Cha UNDER 198 (possible POD)
:shrug:

Also a possible large play on Arizona in the Holiday Bowl :director:

 

[40seven]

Crazy card tonight

Crazy card tonight

I have looked at these games and i have a headache!


Toronto well they were killed by the Bob's a few weeks ago, so yes revenge is sweet take the Rapt's...not to fast 6 points is a lot.

Boston cannot lose three in a row but look at the line....oh yea it has got to go Over....

And the Blazers easy...and Kings


OK enough, it is hard to find a game that fits my system tonight..

The Bob's, Pacers, Clip's, Hornet's and 76ers all fit and so does the Under in Phx..


Crap! 76ers on Under in Phx, I hate teasers but may play one in Phx the Suns and the Under...

 

[Joe_Vienna]

Final card

Grizzlies @ Pacers U208
Bobcats @ Raptors U198

BOLTA :00hour
Joe

 

[grindstone]

Any opinions guys on

Minn/Utah Under 203

NJ/NYK Under 198.5

LAC/Port Over 190

I'm sort of leaning boys

Hey Chump would love to hear what you came up with as numbers on these 3 games???

 

[BillyBatts]

Plays

Plays

I'd like to thank Chump for the under last night, I tailed when I started seeing reverse line movement and realized it was a b2b home in home. :toast:
Unfortunately took the:mj12: Wizz aslo, so a break even night.

Leans for tonight
Pacers +3
Twolves +7.5
Hornets +1
Phi-Sac over 205
Tor-Cha UNDER 198 (possible POD)
:shrug:

Also a possible large play on Arizona in the Holiday Bowl :director:

Just locked these in
Toronto-Cha UNDER 198
In the Raps 4 game winning streak, they've only allowed 86 points a game after allowing 106 on the rest of the year. 86 is also the road avg scoring for the Bobs. Give the 6 point line, I got it capped at 92-86 so 178

TWolves +7.5
Falling for the "trap" here as Minny is 2-0 SU and ATS on the year Vs Utah, now getting 7.5 at home??:shrug:

Hornets +1
Just a "gut" feeling here that Hornets play well and the Heat have one of thier stinkers. These trends help also
:director:
Hornets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
Hornets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Hornets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5.


And in the Holiday Bowl
Arizona +3 LARGE

Best of luck fellas:toast:

 

[grindstone]

Final card

Grizzlies @ Pacers U208
Bobcats @ Raptors U198

BOLTA :00hour
Joe

Hey Joe love your Tor/Mem under198 play, but the Ind/Mem to close for me to call

GL

 

[Joe_Vienna]

Just locked these in
Toronto-Cha UNDER 198
In the Raps 4 game winning streak, they've only allowed 86 points a game after allowing 106 on the rest of the year. 86 is also the road avg scoring for the Bobs. Give the 6 point line, I got it capped at 92-86 so 178

TWolves +7.5
Falling for the "trap" here as Minny is 2-0 SU and ATS on the year Vs Utah, now getting 7.5 at home??:shrug:

Hornets +1
Just a "gut" feeling here that Hornets play well and the Heat have one of thier stinkers. These trends help also
:director:
Hornets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
Hornets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Hornets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5.


And in the Holiday Bowl
Arizona +3 LARGE

Best of luck fellas:toast:

@Under
:toast:

@ Wolves & Hornets
like it very much :toast:

@ Arizona
tell us more

 

[BillyBatts]

@Under
:toast:

@ Wolves & Hornets
like it very much :toast:

@ Arizona
tell us more

:director:

I'll be leaving soon to head to the Illini game tonight, so I apologize for the short summary, BUT...

I loved this game when it opened at AZ as slight fave, and LOVE the fact the public has pounded this game due to the fact of one game that the pub saw against Texas. Arizona has been underrated all year, and isn't "sexy" and doesn't have a Heisman finalist, but Neb offense is absolutely TERRIBLE!! Remember how bad the Big 12 defenses were exposed lat year in bowl season, well they're not much better this year but Neb still struggled. Arizona likes to run the ball and I see them running to the outside to stay away from Su. They also love to throw little 3 and 4 yd patterns, so Su won't have much luck to disrupt this pass game. I see it 27-10 Az. Good luck gents.

 

[grindstone]

Got one so far

Milw + 10.5

GLTA

Also Added

Tor/Char Under 198.5

Utah/Minn Under 202

GLTA

 

[ReadySetGo]

Grindstone

Grindstone

You mean TOR/CHA under?

 

[grindstone]

You mean TOR/CHA under?

My bad thanks man mad the correction to my post
:toast:

 

[ReadySetGo]

No problem. BOLTA.

 

[grindstone]

One last one boys

NY/NY Under 198



Quote:
Originally Posted by grindstone View Post
Got one so far

Milw + 10.5

GLTA


Also Added

Tor/Char Under 198.5

Utah/Minn Under 202

GLTA