NCAA Saturday

[Tiger]

Before I get to my games for today, special mention to Investment Executive who has gone a sizzling 13-1 over the last few days! If you're not checking his page before finalizing your plays, you're cheating yourself out of one of Madjack's best resources.



Early Games
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1)Seton Hall(+6)
Pitt is just 4-3 S/U on the road while Seton Hall is a solid 10-3 S/U at home. Pitt has lost their last 3 road games and seem to be coming back to the pack now. Hall has won 4 straight and 6 of their last 8.

All YTD stats (except free throws) favour the Panthers, no question, but when we examine the last 5 games for each team, the Pirates lead ALL categories............

OFG%.....46.4% to 45.1%
3FG%.....42.3% to 32.2%
Free Throws....69.4% to 63.9%
Boards....34.8 to 30.4
DFG% 41.1% to 42.4%

Getting 6 points at home with the hotter team looks very inviting.


2)Arkansas(+10.5)
Just don't see how a 9-11 team like South Carolina should be giving double digits to anyone.

The Razorbacks have won the last two times here, and have a definite rebounding advantage.



3)Nebraska(+11.5)
Texas is a gaudy 16-4 S/U, but just 4-3 on the road. Nebraska is just 9-13 YTD, but 8-6 at home.

Nebraska can play with the Longhorns because they actually can play some pretty good defence, giving up just 67.3 pts/gm. Their DFG% for the year is a very good 40.6%, and at home this number drops even more to just 38.3%. As a comparison, Texas's road DFG% is 44.7%.

This game could also be a big let-down situation for Texas after their last 2 games were the huge home court win over Oklahoma and big road win over rival Texas A&M.............now going on the road against an "easy" opponent, I'll take the very generous 11.5 points.


More coming................................


Good luck out there today,
Tiger

 

[twofingers]

On the other side of Pitt game.

Pitt is getting healthy as Page and Knight were slowed by leg injuries past three weeks. Domination of Good WV team this week showes me that Pitt is ready to make their move to sew up #1 seed in BE. Pitt the best defensive team in country IMHO and will get after SH tonite. Hall usually wins the PG matchup in BE with Barett but has struggled against other quality PG, i.e Hatten and Knight.

I am on Pitt -3 in 1st half as well. Pitt has been up at half in 6 of last 7 games, avg of 11 points.

Good luck either way my friend.

 

[Tiger]

Adding
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4)St.Joes(+2.5)
Yes, I know that Dayton is 17-4 on the year and 12-0 at home, but St.Joes is 18-3 on the year and I really think the better team here.

As I looked at all the stats for these two teams, I found that St.Joes was better in this category and Dayton was better in that category and when I looked at recent games for both teams, St.Joes was better at this and Dayton was better at something else. However, the one constant in all statistical comparisons is that St.Josephs shows a huge advantage at the defensive end where they have just smothered teams.

YTD, they have a sparkling DFG% of 36.3% compared to 43.1% for Dayton. If we only look at St.Joes road DFG%, it is still 36.9% compared to Dayton's 41.8% in home games only. And when we look at the last 5 games for each team, St.Joes is at 38.6% compared to a very poor 45.5% for the Flyers.

In a game between two very hot teams, I'll take the clearly better defensive team getting points.


5)Texas Tech(-1.5)
What the heck is an unranked team doing being favoured over the #4 team in the country? Hmmmmm.

Let's look at Oklahoma's road stats against Texas Tech's home stats...........well, it's not much of a comparison. Tech is better in every category:

OFG%.....48.7% to 44.7%
DFG%....38.3%(WOW) to 42.1%
They're also better in free throw numbers, rebounding, points for and points against.

It is also significant that this could be a big let-down situation for the Sooners after their big match against Texas last time out.

I have said this before and I'll say it again. In my opinion, this is the toughest conference in the nation to play on the road and I think Tech shows us that again today in this one.

 

[Tiger]

Adding
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6)Detroit(-1)
7)UMass(+11)