Yesterday: 2-2-1
YTD: 19-10
Thursday
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1)Maryland(+6)
Terrapins have the advantage on the boards and at the defensive end............
Defensive FG% YTD.....Maryland 36.9% to WF 41.4%....translates to 66.7 PPG against for Maryland to 71.3 PPG against for WF.
Defensive FG% Last 5 gms...Maryland 36.5% to WF 46.3%.......translates to 64.6 PPG against for Maryland to 77.8 PPG against for WF.
Maryland has dominated this series, winning 8 of the last 9, including 3 of the last 4 here, and have covered the number in 7 of the last 9.
I'll take the generous 6 points.
2)Middle Tennessee State(-6)
A rare medium sized favourite for me, but I think they win this one going away.
They are a crisp 8-1 S/U at home, 6-2 S/U the last 8 overall, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 lined games. New Mexico State has been a poor road show, going 2-6 S/U and 2-5-1 against the number.
Mid Tenn State is a much better offensive team........
Offensive FG% YTD......45.8% to N.M.St. 42.5%
Home Offensive FG% of 46.5% to N/M St. road FG% of 41.3%
offensive FG% last 5 gms.....44.1% to N.M.St. 39.6%.
Middle Tenn also has a better DFG% in their home games (43.4%) coompared to New Mexico State's road DFG% (46.6%)
They also are a better free throw shooting team....just 68.6%(M.T.St.) to 61.2%(N.M.St.) YTD, but we see a much bigger difference when looking at the last 5 games.......75.7% to only 61.9%. Don't overlook this advantage in college hoops. When the home team is better from the charity stripe, it is a solid handicapping angle.
I'll take the better team, the hotter team, playing at home, and laying a reasonable number.
3)Tennessee State(+8.5)
Sure, Austin Peay is playing well with 8 straight wins, but so is Tennessee State, going 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. Tenn St. is 11-3 ATS YTD and 5-1 ATS at home.
Peay has been winning, but the margin of victory has been razor thin, winning the last seven games by 2, 2, 7, 10, 6, 7, and 4. The only times the ATS number was larger than -7 was twice, when they were favoured by 8 and by 15, and they failed to cover either of those.
Austin peay is a fine squad that has won close games, but I don't think they should be favoured by this much on the road, against a team averaging 75.3 pts.gm at home, shooting the ball at 45.9%.
Still looking carefully at 3 more games......
East Illinois/Samford
Cal/Oregon
Stanford/Oregon State
......but not ready to pull the trigger on any of them just yet.
Good luck out there tonight,
Tiger
YTD: 19-10
Thursday
-------------------
1)Maryland(+6)
Terrapins have the advantage on the boards and at the defensive end............
Defensive FG% YTD.....Maryland 36.9% to WF 41.4%....translates to 66.7 PPG against for Maryland to 71.3 PPG against for WF.
Defensive FG% Last 5 gms...Maryland 36.5% to WF 46.3%.......translates to 64.6 PPG against for Maryland to 77.8 PPG against for WF.
Maryland has dominated this series, winning 8 of the last 9, including 3 of the last 4 here, and have covered the number in 7 of the last 9.
I'll take the generous 6 points.
2)Middle Tennessee State(-6)
A rare medium sized favourite for me, but I think they win this one going away.
They are a crisp 8-1 S/U at home, 6-2 S/U the last 8 overall, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 lined games. New Mexico State has been a poor road show, going 2-6 S/U and 2-5-1 against the number.
Mid Tenn State is a much better offensive team........
Offensive FG% YTD......45.8% to N.M.St. 42.5%
Home Offensive FG% of 46.5% to N/M St. road FG% of 41.3%
offensive FG% last 5 gms.....44.1% to N.M.St. 39.6%.
Middle Tenn also has a better DFG% in their home games (43.4%) coompared to New Mexico State's road DFG% (46.6%)
They also are a better free throw shooting team....just 68.6%(M.T.St.) to 61.2%(N.M.St.) YTD, but we see a much bigger difference when looking at the last 5 games.......75.7% to only 61.9%. Don't overlook this advantage in college hoops. When the home team is better from the charity stripe, it is a solid handicapping angle.
I'll take the better team, the hotter team, playing at home, and laying a reasonable number.
3)Tennessee State(+8.5)
Sure, Austin Peay is playing well with 8 straight wins, but so is Tennessee State, going 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. Tenn St. is 11-3 ATS YTD and 5-1 ATS at home.
Peay has been winning, but the margin of victory has been razor thin, winning the last seven games by 2, 2, 7, 10, 6, 7, and 4. The only times the ATS number was larger than -7 was twice, when they were favoured by 8 and by 15, and they failed to cover either of those.
Austin peay is a fine squad that has won close games, but I don't think they should be favoured by this much on the road, against a team averaging 75.3 pts.gm at home, shooting the ball at 45.9%.
Still looking carefully at 3 more games......
East Illinois/Samford
Cal/Oregon
Stanford/Oregon State
......but not ready to pull the trigger on any of them just yet.
Good luck out there tonight,
Tiger
