NCAA Thursday

[Tiger]

Liking a few games for tonight and have some extra time today to do some writeups...................

1)Detroit(+2.5) at Wright State

All of the pertinent statistical categories that I look at are very similar for these two teams except for the most important one for me, and that is defensive FG%. Detroit is better in that category no matter which angle you come at it from:

In all games.....44.1% to 47.0%
Det on road vs Wr.St. at hm.....46.1% to 49.0%
Last 5 gms for each....41.2% to 43.5%

While Wright State boasts 2 big scorers in Doliboa and Hollins, the drop off after that is dramatic while Detroit has more depth with 3 starters averaging 13.3 pts/gm or more in Warren, Green and Riggs. Detroit is also much better in the turnover category as of late.

Detroit has dominated this series, winning the last 5 straight and 10 of the last 11. I'll take the team with the better defence, playing a team they have owned, and getting points.



2)Denver at Florida International(-1.5)

Denver is a respectable 8-6 on the year, but they are a much different team on the road, where they are 0-4 S/U, including 3 losses by 16 or more pts.

On the road, they have a very poor offensive FG% of 37.0%, including just 24.8% on 3's. By comparison, FIU shoots 40.4% at home.

On the road, Denver has a putrid defensive FG% of 50.9%, while FIU at home defends at a nice 42.3% rate.

FIU has better overall rebounding numbers and I also feel that Florida has played the much tougher schedule to this point. They have beaten Denver the last two times on this court by an average of 13.5 points and I think only having to lay 1.5 here is a bargain.


More later................


Good luck out there tonight,
Tiger

 

[Teddy KGB]

gl to you today Tiger, i'll be coattailing you

 

[Tiger]

Hey Teddy,good to see you.Thanks for the support!

3)Austin Peay at Tennessee-Martin(+1)

Could've had this game at +3.5 if I jumped on it about 2 hours ago, but the line is still moving.......it's pick'em in some spots.......so keep an eye if it's a game you're looking at one way or the other. I like TM at home in this one.

Both teams come in at 7-4 S/U and their overall #'s are close in most categories. Tenn-Martin are slightly better in both offensive FG% and defensive FG%. Austin Peay is slightly better in free throws and the teams are basically even on rebounding.

BUT, when we look a little more closely at the always telling home/road stats, a new picture emerges.

On the road, AP shoots just 37.8% in OFG%, while TM checks in at 40.7% OFG% on their home court. Advantage Tennessee.

On the road, AP is a very, very poor 48.4% in DFG% giving up an average of 80.8 pts/gm, while TM checks in at a very good 40.7% DFG% on their home court, giving up just 58.0 pts/gm. Again, advantage Tennessee.

Tennessee-Martin is a sparkling 5-0 at home YTD, while Austin Peay is 1-4 on the road YTD, and has lost their last 4 road games by an average of 19.5 pts.

This disparity in home/road numbers makes Tennessee-Martin getting a point at home look very inviting and it's worth a play for me.

 

[parlayinn]

good luck tiger...always appreciate the write-ups

 

[Tiger]

Thanks parlayinn, good luck to you as well tonight.

4)UCSB at Idaho(+5.5)

UCSB comes into this one having lost 6 of their last 7, including a heartbreaking loss at home last time out in OT, after letting a 15 point lead evaporate. It'll be tough to go on the road now after that type of loss and not see some sort of letdown. Not to mention that Fullove is still doubtful and even if he does see some action, won't be near 100% at all.

I know that Idaho isn't burning the league up at all, but they have won 2 of their last 3 overall, and have beaten UCSB at home the last three straight times.

When studying the raw numbers for this one, I find that Idaho actually has slightly better numbers in the all important categories of defensive FG%, free throw %........in fact, UCSB is shooting only 45.1% in free throws on the road this year.........and also a slight advantage in rebounding numbers YTD.

One other stat that caught my eye is each team's percentage in defending the 3 ball. On the road UCSB allows a whopping 53.5% in 3's while at home Idaho allows only 28.7%.......quite a difference.

All in all, I think we have a live home dog here.



5)Pepperdine at Portland(+5.5)

Another live home dog in this one as Pepperdine is something less than a road warrior. They are 3-2 S/U so far on the road, but only 1-4 ATS in those games. One reason would seem to be a soft defence that is allowing the opposition to score at a high 47.7% FG rate. That has translated to giving up an average of 80.8 pts/gm and that figure is even higher at 82.4 pts/gm over their last 5.

Portland has tightened up their D lately, allowing 43.6% FG over their last 5 games, and not coincidentally, have won 4 of those 5.