NCAA Total Wins

[flapjack]

Still formulating and going to try to show some restraint this year and stick to what I know. But, right now, there's one Pac team I need to pound:

Ore St over 4.5 for max stakes.

They will be much better this year. They will be better on both sides of the ball. They were racked by injury and bring back a ton. They play alot of very talented freshmen last year and those guys are ready to produce. QB, DE's, some great talent in the D back field and skill positions on O. Add to it, Reilly has made a living doing alot with a little and is facing alot of first season coaches in the P12, and I see a winning season for the Beavs. They miss USC and I like the upset of Ore at home. Maybe I'm crazy on that account. I think they have a great shot at 7-5 or better.

Early feels: UCLA over, Stanford under (although I am suprised they are not getting as much love in the lines as the news hype is giving them), Ore under is a strong possibility. Arizona over - I think Rich Rod walked into a good situation.

I think there's gonna be a lot of parity in the Pac which makes me like the low win teams like the OSU's of the world and not like teams who need to win all the games they are favored in like Ore.

 

[flapjack]

Went to put down my bet and OSU is now -300 on the over. WTF? Never would take that with a team like the Beavs. Hope I can find something else decent.

Instead, took Ore U 10.5 -110. Not alot of room for error. Assuming they lose at USC (no guarentee but they will be underdogs), that means they have to win all 11 games they'll be favored in. Alot of upheaval in the Pac - and alot of wild cards like Leach, Rich Rod, Mora, etc - it will be erratic and alot of parity I think, so I will guess someone knocks them off. Assuming they sweep the 3 stiffs they play out of conference and assuming they lose away at USC, give me even odds for one of the 8 other dangerous conf teams who've had some time to figure them out, and I'll take it. I think they are similar to USC - a coin flip really. But have the same odds as them and have to play SC on the road, and I'll bet against the team that must beat every team they are favored against in preseason just to beat their number by a half game. Almost zero margin for error.

 

[Skipper]

Went to put down my bet and OSU is now -300 on the over. WTF? Never would take that with a team like the Beavs. Hope I can find something else decent.

Instead, took Ore U 10.5 -110. Not alot of room for error. Assuming they lose at USC (no guarentee but they will be underdogs), that means they have to win all 11 games they'll be favored in. Alot of upheaval in the Pac - and alot of wild cards like Leach, Rich Rod, Mora, etc - it will be erratic and alot of parity I think, so I will guess someone knocks them off. Assuming they sweep the 3 stiffs they play out of conference and assuming they lose away at USC, give me even odds for one of the 8 other dangerous conf teams who've had some time to figure them out, and I'll take it. I think they are similar to USC - a coin flip really. But have the same odds as them and have to play SC on the road, and I'll bet against the team that must beat every team they are favored against in preseason just to beat their number by a half game. Almost zero margin for error.

I like them at 10 for sure, but very little margin for error. I think there defense will be better, and they have that system that just seems to click on offense. I wish I could get them at 10, then I think at worst you have a push.

GL though

 

[flapjack]

Yeah, at 10 even, I would stay away from betting against Oregon. But, still would not bet big on them as I just dont think they'll get to 11 wins. Even though that schedule is weak, I sense a 10-2 or 9-3 kind of year.

Also taking:

UCLA over 6
I do not see one game on their schedule they can't win. 10 of them are definately winnable, and if they gel under Mora, the other two are as well.

AZ over 5.5
Toledo, SC State, Colo, ASU all at home should be lay ups. Plenty of other teams they can sneak a couple wins from.

ASU U5
This team looks horrible. Could be a complete train wreck. Todd Graham is not the answer. Alot of holes to fill on both sides of the ball. They might be Colorado's 1 conference win this year. I see 2 to 3 wins on this schedule. Maybe 4 if WSU doesn't live up to its hype.


And, just cause I like throwing away money,
Ore St to win the Pac 12 at 60-1.
They will do it ugly with a 7-5 record, 1-2 outside of the conference, but an upset of Oregon at home in the finale. The evenly balanced Pac 12 north beats up on each other, Stanford and Oregon fall back to the pack and OSU goes through on some type of tie breaker. Then, they pull off the upset of USC :shrug:

Would love to take that OSU win total, if anybody sees any books that do not have it at a stupid -300, please let me know. I'd be more than happy to take them at O5 if that brought the juice down to even.