NCAA WEEK 3: early thoughts, leans and future picks.

T

TORONTO-VIGILANTE

ad interim...
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"...Quo fas et gloria ducunt..."
well might as well get this started....we have the lines....now let's do some thinking.....

1) looking at virginia / south car UNDER whatever......

2) oklahoma only getting -8 at alabama....?

3) north texas / baylor under HUGE.
i'd probably tease baylor to a higher number +23 and then make the total 7 points higher and go UNDER for about 2 units as well.
I don't see north texas beating a Big 12 team by a landslide anytime....

other than that...i don't like all these high spreads for this week.... :nono:

but i'm sure i'll find a few other gems as the week progresses....

all thoughts and criticism are obviously welcome.:cool:
 
gardenweasel

gardenweasel

el guapo
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i got lucky

i got lucky

and took fla st at -9.5 at oly right after they pasted n carolina ...and hit it very,very hard(for me).......just feeling pretty sure that maryland`s loss to n.ill. coupled with fla st`s impressive win would drive this line way up....

now it`s -13.5.....and i`m expecting 14 before week`s end.....
a nice little middle opportunity....i need it after a sub .500 week one....:shrug: ....

was kinda looking at buying uconn down to 14 vs army...army`s got quite a few guy`s coming back,but,they started and finished horribly last year and uconn seems to have picked up right where they left off last year.....caully and orlovsky should put up a slew of points here....

also was looking at udub laying 24 to indiana...uconn passed for over 300 yards against indiana....over 500 yards in total offense....now a poor indiana team travels cross country to face pickett and reggie williams after the ohio st embarrassment.....and the huskies only have idaho on deck....

and there`s a little voice in the back of my head saying,bowling green +11......purdue is loaded on offense....b.g. is 5-0 the last 2 yrs against teams from bcs conferences(granted there`s some kansas` and temple`s thrown in there)......but,purdue is loaded...particularly on offense....2 great wide-outs,2 fine qb`s(a runner and a passer) and joey harris back to gain another 1100 yards at least....

probably won`t touch it...

i can`t wait to see the over on this one....if it`s not 60,i`ll be looking hard....

nothing written in stone...except the middle....g.l.
 
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S

ststrl

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Re: i got lucky

Re: i got lucky

gardenweasel said:


also was looking at udub laying 24 to indiana...uconn passed for over 300 yards against indiana....over 500 yards in total offense....now a poor indiana team travels cross country to face pickett and reggie williams after the ohio st embarrassment.....and the huskies only have idaho on deck....
Click to expand...

Agree here. Also look at the other Huskies across the nation, UCONN looking good @ -14.5 vs a HORRIBLE Army squad.
 
T

TORONTO-VIGILANTE

ad interim...
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"...Quo fas et gloria ducunt..."
also was looking at udub laying 24 to indiana...uconn passed for over 300 yards against indiana....over 500 yards in total offense....now a poor indiana team travels cross country to face pickett and reggie williams after the ohio st embarrassment.....and the huskies only have idaho on deck....
Click to expand...

i may take a UCONN first half play there....:shrug:

looking at all these lines for week 2, there isn't much that's jumping out at me....:confused:
 
A

AR182

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tv quote:"looking at all these lines for week 2, there isn't much that's jumping out at me...."



don't worry tv, i'm sure that you will somehow find a few games to play.(lol)


will start looking at next weeks games later today.

keep up the good work.
 
T

TORONTO-VIGILANTE

ad interim...
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"...Quo fas et gloria ducunt..."
new system plays this weekend:

3) Boston College +10 -107 (1/2)

4) Michigan -27.5 -106 (1/2 unit)
this should be like their game last week against central mich.

5) Washington U FIRST HALF PLAY -12 -108 (1/2 unit)
Indiana is a horible team, and even WORSE on the road.

6) Georgia FIRST HALF PLAY -14.5 -110 (1/2 unit)


will be back later with more when those damned totals come out at my books.... :mad:
 
M

mjbarley

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The S Car/Va total is 38.5, and I'm with you on the under. S Car offense will struggle mightily, and U Va should be very conservative with the backup QB. I was a little shocked that it was a lower total than UAB/S Miss, but I'll play it as soon as they put it on one of my books.

I wouldn't hold your breath on getting a total for Baylor/N Texas. Oddsmakers only tend to put up totals on marquee type games, or at least games with with major teams. If they do put one up, it'll be in the same range as SCar/Va, which you won't even need to tease to get under.
 
T

TORONTO-VIGILANTE

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"...Quo fas et gloria ducunt..."
mjbarley said:
The S Car/Va total is 38.5, and I'm with you on the under. S Car offense will struggle mightily, and U Va should be very conservative with the backup QB. I was a little shocked that it was a lower total than UAB/S Miss, but I'll play it as soon as they put it on one of my books.

I wouldn't hold your breath on getting a total for Baylor/N Texas. Oddsmakers only tend to put up totals on marquee type games, or at least games with with major teams. If they do put one up, it'll be in the same range as SCar/Va, which you won't even need to tease to get under.
Click to expand...

thanks for the thoughts man....been busy all week with work....gonna try and find a line on those totals now.....
 
T

TORONTO-VIGILANTE

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"...Quo fas et gloria ducunt..."
OUR GAME OF THE WEEK!!!

last week we won our game of the week on the georgia ML for 3 units....

THIS WEEK:

8) NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN / BAYLOR UNDER 41 -108 (4 units)

The Mean Green shouldn't be REALLY angry about the way they played last week against Oklahoma on the road.....i mean, my numbers matched the score almost exactly....
But they did have 1 or 2 major gaffes on defense (which ruined ALOT of bettors when the line went down about 3 - 4 points...)and of course their offense is completely anemic....Baylor should have problems scoring on offense as well against the mean green defense which now has a game under it's belt and is now playing at home....expect a predicted score of 20 - 7.
 
M

mjbarley

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Where did you find a total on N Texas/Baylor???? None of my books has it posted. I totally agree that this is a great play. Last night's SMiss/UAB game will look like a shootout compared to this one.
 
T

TORONTO-VIGILANTE

ad interim...
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"...Quo fas et gloria ducunt..."
9) teaser time!!!

Baylor +21.5 and the UNDER 48 ( 1 unit gets you back 1.71u)

10) east carolina is one of the worst ATS teams in recent memory and we see this continuing this season.

West Virginia -9.5 -104 (1/2 unit)

good luck to all today.
 
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