NCAA Week Five

[BobbyBlueChip]

Season Record 19-19 +0.10 units
Favorites 6-6 +1.70
Dogs 13-10 +4.10
Totals 0-2 -4.40
ML 0-1 -1.00
Parlays 0-3 -0.30

Auburn -2 3 units

Auburn's loss over USC seems more respectable now. Tuberville has always had trouble in the favorite role, but the 2 points should be a given if they win. MSU's problem has been their run defense for the past 10 games and Auburn will bring a formidable one. I do expect them to be stopped as Dunn will bring run blitzes constantly as he doesn't need to concern himself with either qb's arm. But he better guess right as the blitz can leave yourself as exposed against the run as the pass.

And while Fant couldn't make the trip to Autzen, his backup wasn't responsible for getting run over, and Auburn should be able to have a successful run game. Auburn's is going on the road, which is always precarious in the SEC, but they'll bring a run game and a defense.

I'm out of town and I'll update the returning starter stuff once I get back home.

 

[buddy]

Maybe I'm blind, but I haven't seen anyone, anywhere taking the home dog (MISS STATE+) in this one.

Any fan knows SEC rivalries make for some damn, good football and methinks this matchup is no exception.

These are the results of the L 3 years:

10/6/2001 AUBURN 16 Mississippi St 14 W -2.5 L
10/7/2000 MISS ST 17 Auburn 10 L -1 L
10/9/1999 AUBURN 16 Mississippi St 18 L 4 W

Prior to Ly's cover by 1/2 point over AUBURN, Miss State lost their previous two games at Florida, 0-52 and at home -3 vs South Carolina, 14-16.

With this being an isolated game, plus the given track record of these two teams in head-to-head matchups, I just don't see any kind of decided advantage of taking one side over the other.

But the "under" sure looks tempting.

 

[no all]

good luck

 

[MACH1]

Does anyone agree with playing it safe (sort of speak) and tease this game at AU +4 and under 49???

After all I've read on this board it looks pretty good!!

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Sorry I didn't get to anyone's responses, I went out after I posted. Buddy, I think that will probably be the only road fav in the SEC I will play this year. Just think that Miss State is name only right now.

LaTech +14.5 5 units

Louisiana Tech is sandwiched on Penn State's schedule between Nebraska and the Big 10 opener against Iowa. Louisiana Tech is 11-8 ATS in the past 5 years against the BCS conferences, but included in those ATS losses are 2 losses against perennial mid-major killers Kansas State and a loss against this Penn State team in 2000 when Penn State was coming off a beating by Toledo at home. That Bulldog team was 3-9, the weakest in recent memory due to the loss of their coordinator Crowton to the Bears. Last year's team rebounded by recording over 40 points in 6 straight games, albeit mostly WAC competition (Auburn was also included in that run) and they have started this season averaging almost 300 yards/game passing. They did have problems away against Clemson this year losing 33-13 to Clemson, however, 3 ints and a blocked punt did them in as Clemson had two TD drives of less than 10 yards and the teams were even in first downs. Also, as Penn State is fond of the prevent defense in the 4th quarter as they showed against UCF, the 14.5 is even more valuable as it will leave the backdoor open. Nebraska simply refused to pass until well into the 4th quarter. Louisiana Tech keeps this one close as Penn State looks to revenge Iowa next week.

Florida +5 3 units

I'm just not ready to count out the Florida program after they lost to Miami (just like everyone else the past 20+ games). The game hung in the balance until a 99-yard interception return broke the Gator spirit. Just too many people jumped on the bandwagon after the UAB game and then jumped off after an understandable loss. I'll take the battle tested Gators.

Also playing 2 units on the following returning starter plays

Cal -9.5
BC +26
Temple +17
Louisville -27
Idaho +8
Nevada -7
Troy State +17
U Conn -3.5

and the 40+ dog for 2 units

Duke +45