I will almost always put reasoning on my plays because my handicapping is not to the point where you should just take my word for it. WRITEUPS ARE OVERRATED. I have no problem with questioning the reasoning that I put into a selection , that's why I put them up.
Colorado State +3 - 2 units
As has already been stated, Lubbick is a great coach with time. He has turned this program around much like Beamer did at VaTech, all with special teams. This kept them in every game that they played and once the wins started, they were able to find better recruits than the rest of their conference. The offense returns Cecil Sapp who is a slashing back that gained over 5 yards a pop in 2000 to earn all MWC honors. He returns from leg problems and this is his first game back which is concern, but backup Henri Childs filled in nicely in 2001 also averaging 5.3 yards a carry so if Sapp is flat, his replacement is suitable. They will be facing a defensive line that has 2 frosh (both ends.) To run a 3-4 defense you need size up front (Virginia has) and a nose guard that can create havoc (Virginia does not have.) Andrew Hoffman, Virginia?s noseguard on Thursday was redshirted last year after playing 65 plays his freshman year, He will be playing the most important position on the field in the 3-4 set. That?s not where I want inexperience to be. Another thing that makes the 3-4 effective is the ability to blitz the QB from a number of different areas. It causes offensive line confusion and easy sacks. However, the MWC has 4 other teams that use some sort of uneven number lines as their base defenses, so the Rams will be prepared for the defense. 3 starters return on the offensive line and the two newcomers both have extensive game experience. Plus, Van Pelt can outrun any blitz and he is most dangerous when the protection breaks down. To stop them, the Cavs will have to keep their lanes and not break down from their responsibility which is alot to ask in a young group.
Virginia will rely on Matt Schaub to run their offense. I was very unimpressed with his play in the 4 games that I saw last year. He holds onto the ball too long, takes too long to read a defense and doesn?t have a lot of velocity on the ball. McMullen does present matchup problems, but he is only one player. It used to be, Colorado State could prepare every week for a passing offense and then be out of sync for the week that they played Air Force. However, Last year?s team was horrid on run defense giving up 211.1 yards/game and 4.6 yards/carry. But that team also faced 4 of the top 13 rushing teams in the nation last year. Much can be blamed on the fact that injuries hit the team hard causing them to play the last half of the season with less than 4 defensive linemen suited up. This year, Rush defense has been a priority since the spring. Virginia could have success on the ground against the Rams, but it seems that Groh is in love with his complex pro-style offense and doesn?t give it the time to develop. Virginia should have moderate success in the air and, if it wants, on the ground.
A special teams edge goes to the Rams against almost anybody in the nation. They block punts, always have solid return men and Lubbick makes it a priority. Their all-MWC punter will probably not be playing which is a concern, but UVa will start . . . a freshman.
When the lines first came out, I expected this to be a 5-unit play (my highest) but I am concerned with the following:
Van Pelt has spent most of this offseason trying to work on throwing the football. While this is good for him in the long run, he may force himself to stay in the pocket longer than he has in the past to prove he is a QB. He is a great playmaker but it?s his feet, not his arm, that make him a gamebreaker.
Also. When punting is such a priority, the loss of one of the best in the nation has the chance of ruining the whole system. I?m not concerned with backup Jeff Babcock?s leg strength (he is the kickoff specialist), but he may outkick the coverage and all the special teams training is for nothing.
This game should be high-scoring, but it comes down to the fact that when the 3rd and 4 comes, the Quarterback that I want is someone who is multi-faceted and can think on the fly. Van Pelt is a leader and Colorado State should be able to move the ball easier on the ground than the Cavs can through the Air.
Arizona State +22 - 2 units
I don?t have all the info the Dynomar has, but I haven?t been impressed with Nebraska early in the season since he took over (3-8-1 in the first three games of the season). The TCU team had nobody coming back and held their own against the Huskers. Plus with the lookahead to Troy State, Nebraska won?t be showing everything.
Arkansas State +37 - 2 units
I don?t pretend to know much about the Arkansas State program, however this game falls into the returning starter system that I use (>14 ? 5 more than opponent) as Arkansas State returns 16 starters compared to 11 for VaTech. VaTech actually has a schedule this year (LSU, Marshall and aTm are the next 3) and will need to work on their weaknesses rather than show their strength
This is the only game that I've put money on so far. I agree with you Bobby in that the Cavalier's just don't have what it takes to to stop an option QB like Van Pelt. I think we're going to see a vastly improved Van Pelt from last year, and we're going to see an efficient "passing" Van Pelt.
