ND - Ore St Prop

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flapjack

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Aug 13, 2004
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Anderson - 58.5 passing yards
Anderson - 4.5 completions

I don't usually jump on propositions, but these two look too good. I go back and forth on which side will end up on top - hoping OSU since I put a wad on them before I started second guessing myself. But, either way this game goes, I think this is a strong bet.

First the season averages per game:

Anderson cmps/yds: 22.8/296
Brady cmps/yds: 15.8/216

Thats +7 in comps/game & +80 in yds per game for Anderson.

Add in that OSU has little chance to run on ND given their running ability and ND's ability to stop the run. If OSU has success in the air, they will continue to fire away. If they don't - i.e. Anderson pick-a-thon, OSU's only chance will be to keep putting it up. Add in the fact that ND has gotten scorched late in the year through the air and their best pass rusher is out and I like Anderson to have at least 40 attpts in this game.

On the other side. ND is the polar opposite. They will try to pound the hell outta OSU on the ground. ND's got 2 WR's out and is facing a team that leads the country in opponents completion percentage 43%. If ND has success on the ground, OSU will be feed a steady diet of Grant and Walker. If ND can't run, then they are in big trouble. They will be down big, facing 2 great corners with green WR's and Swancutt unloading on Brady. In addition, OSU losing Pollard, maybe OSU's best run stopper, will also play into ND's desire and success running it.

Just the season averages of the two QB's favors Anderson covering both. But given that OSU will most likely abandon the run early and ND will try to pound the ball more than usual spells alot of OSU passes to few ND passes.

The game plans of these two O's could not be more opposite.
 

Mr. Majestyk

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Oct 13, 2003
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Illinois
Well done Flap. Thought this was an excellent wager when I read your post and it played out just as you thought. With all the "touts" on this board pretty much split between the two sides this was the easiest bet of the night. Unfortunately I backed off on the number of books I'm using this year and wasn't able to make this bet.

Did have success though with two wagers made on the "in-running" option one of my books offered by betting Oregon State as the "next team to score." They were pretty much giving this money away earlier in the game when OS was truly dominating which became obvious would be the case pretty early on.

Good job!
 

flapjack

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Aug 13, 2004
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Thank you. This, along with the money on the Beavs stopped the Bowl season bleeding. Strange, I've never been a "prop" kinda guy, but this year, by far, props have been the biggest and most consistant winners for me - MLB play-offs (Can't wait for next year and I don't even like baseball), the Election and this have won me a ton. While straight betting has killed me. Go figure.
 
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