NEC Invitational

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1 unit):

Jim Furyk to win 16/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes
Failed to earn a return as a selection last week, but few concerns about his form and confidence at the moment. He will need another win if he is to secure the Player of the Year award and this represents an excellent opportunity. He has finished 10th, 4th and then 2nd in his three visits to Firestone for a WGC event so with Tiger Woods far from dominant at the moment, there should be new winner on this course and Furyk looks one of the strongest contenders.

Vijay Singh to win 16/1 e.w. @ SkyBet, Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, BetInternet and BlueSq
Singh has hardly received a mention for the Player of the Year award even though he currently lies 3rd on the Money List. He has simply failed to win a major this year, but had been in contention last week until a closing 79. His 34th place finish was his first finish outside the top-20 in any event since the Players Championship in March and it won't happen again this week. In seven visits to Firestone (three in WGC events), Singh has never finished outside the top-15 on this course and is certainly capable of winning his 3rd PGA Tour title of the year.

Kenny Perry to win 22/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds and Victor Chandler
Perry had very little chance of winning the PGA Championship after an opening 75 last week, but he never stopped trying and improved his score in every round to finish in the top-10. You can't ask for more than that from your selection! It took his run of top-10 finishes to eight - a run that started with three wins in the first four events. He hasn't played at Firestone since 1995, but that should matter little in his current form and mindset. Should at least go close for a place finish.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

I wonder how Boyles,Skybet and the rest justify Paying 1/4 odds if you bet E/W but only 1/5 odds on straight place wagers.
Discrimination

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
a couple 72 holes @ 365 (ties lose) both -110
Nick Price over Garcia
Couples over Poulter

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding @ B&W all -110
Perry over Mick
Harrington over Bjorn
N Price over Clarke
Verplank over Cink
Fasth over M Campbell

 

[milpalm]

I think one of the top players will prevail this week. Woods looks a tad big at 4/1. Got Furyk and Singh at 16/1.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding @ 365 (matchups no ties lose)
N Price -115 over Allenby
++++++++++++++++++++++++
outright to place @ Boyles (top 5)
N Price 13.2/1
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
1st rd @ 365 (ties lose)
Couples -120 over Romero

 

[rrc]

One of my outs has Furyk +112 vs Els. Seems like it should be pick 'em. Love Furyk in this spot, any thoughts? Certainly doesn't hurt that Stanley has Furyk as one of his outrights.

 

[sports student]

rrc got to agree with you about Furyk

72 hole matchups

Furyk +120 over Els (bowmans and 5 dimes)

2 man parlay at sportingbet
Cejka -1/2 over Bjorn
Fred Jacobson -1/2 over Couples
pays 2.6 to 1

 

[lostinamerica]

In the PGA I had Alex Cejka(33/1) as Top European and didn't post it just because of the drought I've been in. My picks are my picks, and I NEVER do that. The drought continues.

Maybe it's a good thing that Friday through Sunday will find me golfing across Minnesota and for the most part my weekend will be spent far away from a television and a computer. My VCR will likely be set for some of the U.S. Amateur more than anything.

FWIW: Robert Allenby on television on Tuesday: "The course is perfect . . . I reckon I'll be able to get a 5-iron out of this rough and not just a sand iron."
---------- ---------- ----------

When the tour comes to a players home course, or to a location that holds a special significance from his youth or his college days, or something comparable (as opposed to a performance related reconnection, such as having been victimized by a Sunday charge the prior year), under what circumstances does it produce the right edge for some of their best golf and some inspired play, and when does a player get in his own way and try too hard to perform at his best? There are obviously countless variables that impact that outcome, but the best angle I've been able to synthesize (without having a specific quantitative breakdown to confirm it), is that standing alone it is just about as likely to impede most players best golf, BUT if you wait until the player gets untracked, the emotion and momentum and comfortable surroundings are quite frequently put to good use as the pressure of contending moves in.

OUTRIGHTS:

Stuart Appleby(66/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
I've been waiting for this one like a fool, and Appleby flashing some good form before arriving at a course that suits only encourages me. http://www.bayarea.com/mld/mercurynews/sports/5805033.htm I posted that link during The Memorial and noted that I had the happy experience of chatting with Ashley while watching Appleby play holes 6 and 7 on Sunday of last year's PGA at Hazeltine. I think Stuart has had his eye on this one even more so than when he went to Australia to directly assist the sponsors of the ANZ Championship (finishing T-2). I'd be on board for this one even if I could wait around to first see if Appleby gets untracked, and at a bare minimum I am expecting better than his T-18 from The Memorial.

Ernie Els(9/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
I don't think anyone had less to show from their good play last week. Maybe Ernie is less of a stumblebum this week.

Phil Mickelson(25/1) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
When it comes to results in their appearances sandwiched around a major championship, Phil is clearly a contender for earning the prize of champ when it comes to being a week early or a day late. While it's true that Firestone and other venues in the sample probably match well with his talents, I suspect it's a bit deeper than that, and that the focus and preparation are still evident and lend themselves to some of his best play without the burden of "that other tag" he carries at 4 events each year. I think Phil is tracking like someone coming into a stretch of his best golf of the season, and while quite a few others are in a period of decompression, Phil is set for something close to his version of a grinding effort.

Tim Clark(25/1)(Top Rest of World) for 0.50* e.w. @ Bet365
I think those are attractive odds on the potential of this being a spot in which the player gets a bump from a spirited career effort that he is able to sustain for another week, and it's not like he necessarily has to rise up to the level of a world beater to get the money.

GL

 

[Whalers Rule]

Robert Allenby 66-1 e.w.

Last week Micheel one of the worst putters on tour actually made some putts, hoping for a similar fate this week from another good ball striker awful putter.

 

[matchmaker]

Hi Everyone
Best 72 Hole match pick for me is
CHRIS DI MARCO over Goosen
Odds:Evens [Chandler]
Stake:$40
Di Marco is consistent with a tremendous touch around the greens.Didnt contend at the PGA but at least played all 4 days unlike Goosen!
For me the South African should not be Favourite to outscore Di Marco,so the play has to be on the American.
Good Luck
Matchmaker

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding prop @ $plays
Low rd over 63 1/2 +105

Can only find one rd @ 63 (cink) in last 3 years here and with them tucking pins closer to edge this year I think this is decent bang for buck.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding 1st rd @ 5 Dimes
Couples +102 over Lonard
Slightly better rated but with projected wind am/pm tees biggest reason. I can just see Freds back going out with only two 1st rd plays on him.

 

[lostinamerica]

One for the road:

1st Round (Ties lose) @ Bet365:

PARLAY Faxon(+120) over Jacobson w/ Rollins(+162) over Goosen for 1* @ 4.78/1

GL

 

[Another Steve]

NEC Plays

NEC Plays

Was caught out of pocket and was unable to make any match up plays but did enter some outrights.

Jim Furyk to Win +12.00 1 Unit

Just have to play him. Jim is on his game and loves to play this course. He can win and I want to be there.

Nick Price to Win +30.00 1 Unit

When I was looking down the list and saw Nick's name, I smiled. Two years ago I got a feeling about him and he Won Colonial. He has been quiet all year..Just a gut play.

Will return during the weekend with plays. Golf has been good to me and bad to the Man.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

1st rd results 2-0

Couples beat both Lonard and Romero

Was going to pass 2nd rd with anticipated rain but will play one with similiar T-Times so should not be much advantage one way or another.
Phillip Price over Faxon -110 @ 5 dimes

I am a little hesitant that Prices driving stats in 1st rd 334 hitting 79% of fairways are correct but even if remotely so it is huge edge over Faxons 274/43% which seem about right.
Plus Faxon is paired with Mick who hit less than 40% which could prove time consuming today bewix the 2 of em--and at times a shorter player will get a little out of sync trying to keep up with the bombers.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

2nd rd 0-2

P Price/Faxon Loss
lowest rd over 63 1/2 loss (funk 62) who da funk it

3rd rd
Riley -108 over Casey @ $plays
Toms +100 over Clarke

Sure hate to bet on leaders but But Casey had much earlier tees yesterday which figured almost a 3 stroke adv over late tees.

--and looking for Clarke to have a small let down as he thouroughly enjoys thumping Tiger head to head as he did once again yesterday. Would have give a ten spot if he fired up a big stogie on 18 and puffed smoke in Tigers eyes:lol:

Will be fun to watch Tiger and Els go at it today in pairing.
Els has not had such good success when paired with Tiger and considered playing Furyk (one sroke down)in 72 hole cont @ Oly+165 vs Els on account of it, but will be pulling too hard for Ernie today

 

[ussrv]

Took Furyk + 165 over Els for the tournament, 1 %play
@ olympic

He is only one behind and plays the course well. A solid value play.

Sutton + 150 vs Faxon. @olympic 1% play

Value play here as well.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

3rd rd 1-1
Riley/Casey win
Toms/Clarke loss

4th rd
Weir -105 over Mick @ $plays
3 stroke 4th rd scor ave diff. Weir 69.31 Mick 72.50
Hariington -115 over M Campbell @ 5dimes
Weak A vs C player

prop @ $plays
4th rd scor over/under Woods under 68 -125
Heres one I hope I lose.

ussrv thought there might be nice scalp at Oly on Furyk/Els but they omitted that match-up

 

[lowell]

any help appreciated. clarke-30-riley,woods-60-love,kaye-15-flesch-15,goosen-30-allenby,singh-30-furyk,casey-35-poultier

 

[Stanley]

Final update: 0-3; -3.00 units

Furyk 6th
Singh 6th
Perry 53rd

No chance of catching Clarke, but both Singh and Furyk had good chances of securing a place return. They both finished one place too low which seems to be a recurring theme this week.