Nedbank Golf Challenge

[Stanley]

Round 1 plays (2pts):

Lee Westwood to beat Louis Oosthuizen +105 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Stan James and Bet365]
It has not been Westwood's best season and it appears at face value that he has not been playing very well recently, but in his two starts this month, he led the HSBC Champions with one round to play and even though he finished 48th of 60 last week in Dubai, he was 5th after the opening round, but appeared to cruise after some difficulty in the second round. Now he comes to this event which he has won in each of the last two years and where he is the course record holder (62). Having also dominated the Thailand Championship last year, this is a two-week spell in which he clearly has a strong liking for the courses. Oosthuizen has been playing well, but with a best finish of 5th (with just 12 in the field) from three previous attempts, maybe this course doesn't suit him as much as Westwood.

Lee Westwood to beat Justin Rose -105 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
Rose finished 2nd in 2007, but otherwise in his last two previous finishes at Sun City that compares unfavourable to Westwood. Rose did finish 2nd last week, but there has really been little to separate these two in recent form, so I'll back Westwood on this course.

 

[Stanley]

Round 2 plays (4pts):

Martin Kaymer to beat Nicolas Colsaerts -116 @ Bet365 [also available @ Paddy Power]
Not sure why Colsaerts is so favoured in the 2nd round. He holds the first round lead alongside Bill Haas and this is only the second time that he has done so in the last two years - the previous time that he held the lead after rd1 - the 2012 Volvo Golf Champions - he sht 76 in the second round and suffered a ten-shot swing. It is over two years since he held the lead after two rounds - and he didn't win from that position - and neither did he win from the one time that he has held the lead after three rounds this year. It has been eleven weeks since his last top-10 finish, so I'll back Kaymer to beat him in the second round. The German does have previous course experience and is in good form with finishes of 11th, 9th, 3rd and 26th in the last five weeks.

Bill Haas to beat Nicolas Colsaerts +112 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
Haas is the co-leader with Colsaerts, but whereas the Belgian has previously struggled in the few times that he has led a Tour event, Haas has been a wire-to-wire winner on the PGA Tour.

Paul Lawrie to beat Nicolas Colsaerts +138 @ Stan James
The odds on the Scot are too big given that he lies just one shot back in 3rd place, is a two-time winner on the European Tour this season alone and dominates the pre-weekend h2h stats against Colsaerts: 11-4-4 in the last 12 months.

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 plays (4pts):

Martin Kaymer to beat Charl Schwartzel -105 @ Bet365 [also available @ Stan James and Paddy Power]
Kaymer has looked the more impressive this week and sits in 2nd place, just one shot behind Paul Lawrie. He has been playing well recently and has finished ahead of Schwartzel in four of their five common events over the last eight weeks.

Louis Oosthuizen to beat Lee Westwood -105 @ Bet365 [also available @ Stan James and Paddy Power]
Westwood is just four shots off the lead, but hasn't really looked like defending his title this week - he had two double-bogeys in his round today, for example. Oosthuizen is already one shot ahead of the Englishman in 3rd place as he looks for his sixth top-6 finish in a row

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 plays (2pts):

Lee Westwood to beat Charl Schwartzel -127 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
It's close at the top of the leaderboard and with Westwood just three shots off the lead after a better round today, he still has a good chance of making it three wins in a row in the Nedbank. He has a 12-6-1 h2h record against Schwartzel over the past 12 months, so the Englishman warrants favouritism in this matchup.

Justin Rose to beat Peter Hanson -138 @ Pinnacle [available generally]
Rose improved by ten shots in rd3 and looks more likely to carry on his momentum in the final round than Hanson who has yet to shoot a sub-par round this week. As with the previous matchup, the Englishman warrants favouritism from his domination of the h2h stats: 10-4-1 in the last nine months.

Peter Hanson to beat Paul Lawrie -120 @ Paddy Power [also available @ Stan James]
There's a similarity with the only previous time that Lawrie has played in this event - on that occasion, he led after the first round and then finished in joint-last place. This time, he led after two rounds, but a 75 has meant that he has dropped to 6th (of 12). It is difficult to see him bouncing back from that round, so I'll back Hanson to play well enough to beat Lawrie, but not match Rose.