Need HELP from the Best of the Best!

[H-Town]

Fellas -

Well I am in a bit of a quandry. I just had a personal situation with a friend come up where he needs me to loan him some $$$. Considering I just paid uncle sam $1700 smackers last week (I love tax extensions in April but God I hate them right before football season) and I got killed for $1400 the last two weeks my liquidity is shaken. I got drilled by Detroits BP last night and consequently lost the under on the Seattle game in the top of the ninth and then couldnt pull out the over in the Florida game. I know I am not the only one here who felt snake bit. Hell I should have just laid the $$ on Seattle like I initially thought. Anyway, the short of it is I am down another $1400 this week. There is not a problem paying it but in order to help my friend out and cover losses I would have to dip into accounts that I would rather not touch.

So.....I am left with a couple options. Dip into the brokerage account or try and win back the $$$ lost this week plus the extra $1300 I would need to cover him. If I lose I dip, if I dont bet I dip, if I win I dont dip. I say lets try and win it back but I would like the help from everyone here!!! You guys can bash me or whatever but my buddy needs help to put a retainer down for a lawyer and it s legit. Lets just say drinking and driving isnt too intelligent.

Anyway I was thinking about laying the hammer on

PHILLY - 150

today for say 8-10 units (each being worth $100). What do you think? Of course I could go heavy on Pedro or some of the other heavy favs but quite frankly I would rather not lay 300+ on a fav unless i was absolutely confident.

So I ask you all who would you play and what would be your strategy? A couple of 10 unit plays to get it over with or medium plays through the rest of the week. The way my local book works I am given a 5 dime limit for losses each week. Therfore I have roughly 3600 available under the cap but really dont want to swallow a loss of more than another $2100 or so.

Thanks in advance for those who want to help and for those who want to bash me I apologize for waisting space. Just thought this might be fun for everyone and I can always use the extra help.:shrug:

 

[Livin' Large]

Why are you considering laying the hammer on Philly? What do you see that makes you like this game that much?

 

[TJBELL]

Just my 2 cents, if you feel you need to TRY to get it back:

I like these plays:

1) UNDER (St Louis/Pitt) 9.5

2) Anaheim +164

3) Texas +335 (worth a shot)

4) Minnesota -141

5) Colorado St ML +120 (NCAAF)

6) LA Sparks (pk)

-------------------------------------
Not sure on the Philly game. Wouldn't play it at all. Cubs UNDER 9 seems good too.

Good luck in whatever you play. keep us posted so we can give ya' some MOJO!!!! Hope you win!!!

 

[hellah10]

I like Philly as well

 

[hellah10]

I dont follow trends....but I hope this makes you feel better about your pick

Milw game 3 after a loss 3-22
Philly game 3 after a win 9-7

Milwaukee .241 on the year vs. lefties and only average 3.1 RPG with a 7-19 record (-12.7 units)

RANDY WOLF vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
WOLF is 1-1 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 3.45 and a WHIP of 1.149.
His team's record is 4-1 (+3.2 units) in these starts.

Phillies have won Wolf's last 5 starts, last 7 starts he sports a 2.32 era. In those 7 starts they were against SOLID hitting teams, especially compared to the lefty anemic hitting Brewers: St. Louis, Atl x2, Montreal, SD, SF, and LA

 

[Nick Douglas]

It is generally always a bad idea to dip into accounts when you are losing. My opinion is to make your decision with your friend a completely separate decision from your gambling decision.

Your best bet in gambling is to pass. Wait a few weeks or a month and come back with a new bankroll. Bet only 5% of that bankroll MAX per play. Standard plays should be lower than that, depending on how many games per day you play. It is annoying betting for small amounts, I know, but that is the way to always keep money in your bankroll when things get tough.

DO NOT play Philly today. I like Milwaukee very much. Even if my liking them doesn't matter to you, ask yourself why on earth you would lay -150 on a bad team like Philly playing on the road with a mediocre pitcher going? Gl today.

 

[TJBELL]

I like Milwaukee too. Seems like everyone and their brother is on Philly. That's scary in itself. Agree with Nick. Don't chase!! GL on whatever you do!

 

[Livin' Large]

Phillies as a road favorite = -$1,130
Brewers as a home dog = +$210

Good luck if you decide to bet on Philly!

 

[TJBELL]

Here is some info for you.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Philadelphia at Milwaukee
Time: 2:05 p.m. EST Venue: Miller Park

GAME: Philadelphia Phillies (60-65) at Milwaukee Brewers (44-81).

Pitching Matchup
Randy Wolf Jimmy Osting

2002 Stats 2002 Stats
L/R L L/R L
IP 156.2 IP 4.2
W-L 8-7 W-L 0-0
BB 51 BB 4
SO 115 SO 3
ERA 3.62 ERA 0.00
Career vs.
Milwaukee Career vs.
Philadelphia
IP 31.1 IP -
W-L 1-1 W-L ---
ERA 3.45 ERA -

TIME: Thursday, 2:05 p.m. EDT.

There is little doubt that Randy Wolf has been the Philadelphia Phillies' best pitcher of late.

Wolf, who will be celebrating his 26th birthday on Thursday, will look for another strong start as the Phillies close their three-game set against the Milwaukee Brewers. Over his last eight starts, the left-hander is 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA.

"He's the staff ace if we were going to the playoffs," Philadelphia catcher Mike Lieberthal said. "He knows how to pitch, he has great intensity. It's his game."

Wolf certainly made it his game in his last outing. In a complete-game effort last Friday, Wolf allowed just four hits while striking out eight, as the Phillies blanked the St. Louis Cardinals 4-0. It was Wolf's third career shutout and sixth complete game.

Philadelphia has won four of its five meetings with Milwaukee this season, including a 13-3 rout on Wednesday. Bobby Abreu, who went 2-for-5, led the way with four RBIs, including his 14th homer of the season. All-Star shortstop Jimmy Rollins finished 3-for-5 with three RBIs, and the Phillies, who snapped a three-game losing streak, had a season-high 17 hits, including six doubles.

The Brewers, who beat the Phillies 2-1 on Tuesday, have won just two of their last eight games. They are averaging just 2.4 runs during that period and an anemic 1.2 per game in the six losses.

STANDINGS (through Aug. 20): Phillies - 4th place, 21 GB, NL East. Brewers - 6th place, 25? GB, NL Central.

PHILLIES PROBABLE STARTER: Wolf (8-7, 3.62 ERA). Wolf, who has turned in eight consecutive quality starts, is 1-1 with a 3.45 ERA in five career games against the Brewers.

BREWERS PROBABLE STARTER: Jimmy Osting (0-0, 0.00 ERA). The 25-year-old lefty will be making just his second major league start and fifth career appearance. On Saturday, making his debut as a starter, Osting allowed no runs and three hits through 4 2-3 innings, as the Brewers lost to the Pittsburgh Pirates 5-0.

OFFENSIVE LEADERS: Phillies - Abreu, .295 avg.; Pat Burrell, 30 HRs, 91 RBIs and 81 runs; Abreu and Rollins, 24 SBs. Brewers - Alex Sanchez, .291 and 34 SBs; Richie Sexson, 26 HRs, 84 RBIs and 69 runs.

SEASON SERIES: Phillies, 4-1.

STREAKS AND NOTES: Phillies - The Phillies have homered in a season-high eight straight games. They have 15 homers in the last 11 games. ... LF Burrell, who hit his 30th home run Tuesday in the team's 124th game, became the fastest Phillie to reach that mark since Mike Schmidt hit his 31st in Game 124 in 1981. ... The Phillies went 9-for-20 with runners in scoring position Wednesday. Over the previous three games, they were just 1-for-17 in such situations. Brewers - SS Jose Hernandez is batting .545 (6-for-11) in his career against Wolf. He went 2-for-3 Wednesday to extend his hitting streak to a career-high 10 games. ... Manager Jerry Royster said the chances of OF Geoff Jenkins returning this season are "not very good." Jenkins has been working to return by the end of the season since severely dislocating his right ankle on June 17. ... 2B Eric Young needs two stolen bases to reach 400 for his career.

ROAD/HOME RECORDS: Phillies - 27-34 on the road. Brewers - 26-35 at home.

INJURIES: Phillies - RHP Robert Person (shoulder, elbow), 15-day DL; INF Dave Hollins (knee), 60-day DL; RHP Turk Wendell (elbow), out for season; RHP Ricky Bottalico (shoulder), out for season. Brewers - C Raul Casanova (elbow), 15-day DL; RHP Chad Fox (shoulder), 15-day DL; OF Jenkins (ankle), 15-day DL; RHP Curtis Leskanic (shoulder), 15-day DL; RHP Nick Neugebauer (shoulder), 15-day DL; RHP Paul Rigdon (shoulder), 60-day DL.


SERIES GAME LOG
Date at Result Winner Loser
Aug 13 PHI PHI 3-1 Padilla Rusch
Aug 14 PHI PHI 4-1 Myers Wright
Aug 15 PHI PHI 5-0 Roa Quevedo
Aug 20 MIL MIL 2-1 Wright Myers
Aug 21 MIL PHI 13-3 Roa Sheets
Aug 22 MIL
WEATHER CONDITIONS
Temp: 71? - Showers
Wind: 4 mph from WSW
Relative humidity: 93%
Barometer: 29.98 inches
Visibility: 10 miles
GAME ODDS
Phila. -150
Milwaukee 9u-120


STANDINGS
Team Standings W L Pct. GB L 10 Strk
Philadelphia 4th NL East 60 65 .480 21 6-4 W 1
Milwaukee 6th NL Central 44 81 .352 26 ? 4-6 L 1


Philadelphia Milwaukee


LAST 7 DAYS
Hitting
Player AB R H HR RBI AVG
Myers 1 0 1 0 0 1.000
Giambi 8 3 3 2 3 .375
Polanco 24 2 9 0 2 .375
Pratt 3 0 1 0 0 .333
Rollins 25 4 8 0 3 .320
Burrell 22 2 7 1 2 .318
Abreu 24 4 6 3 7 .250
Lieberthal 20 4 5 1 1 .250
Lee 21 3 5 1 5 .238
Anderson 17 1 4 0 1 .235
Yearly Hitting Stats
LAST 7 DAYS
Hitting
Player AB R H HR RBI AVG
Rusch 2 0 2 0 1 1.000
Machado 8 1 5 0 2 .625
Hernandez 22 3 11 2 6 .500
Stairs 12 4 5 1 2 .417
Harris 15 2 4 0 1 .267
Young 19 0 5 0 0 .263
Sanchez 23 2 6 0 1 .261
Belliard 5 0 1 0 0 .200
Loretta 16 2 3 0 0 .188
Hammonds 17 0 3 0 0 .176
Yearly Hitting Stats

Pitching
Player W L S SO IP ERA
Plesac 0 0 0 1 1.0 0
Mesa 0 0 0 0 1.0 0
Wolf 1 0 0 8 9.0 0
Timlin 0 0 0 2 4.1 0
Silva 0 0 0 1 4.1 0
Cormier 0 0 0 2 1.0 0
Adams 0 0 0 2 1.1 0
Roa 2 0 0 5 14.0 1.93
Myers 0 1 0 1 5.0 3.60
Duckworth 0 0 0 4 2.0 4.50
Yearly Pitching Stats
Pitching
Player W L S SO IP ERA
DeJean 0 0 1 1 2.0 0
Durocher 0 0 0 2 1.2 0
Osting 0 0 0 3 4.2 0
Vizcaino 0 0 0 2 2.1 0
Wright 1 0 0 4 6.1 1.42
De Los Santos 0 0 0 0 2.2 3.38
Rusch 0 1 0 2 6.2 4.05
King 0 0 0 1 2.0 4.50
Sheets 1 1 0 8 12.1 6.57
Quevedo 0 1 0 4 5.0 9.00
Yearly Pitching Stats

BATTER VS. PITCHER(Career)
vs Mike DeJean
Player AB H HR BB SO AVG
Pratt 1 1 0 1 0 1.000
Anderson 3 2 0 0 1 .667
Burrell 2 1 0 0 0 .500
Glanville 6 3 0 0 0 .500
Rollins 2 1 0 1 0 .500
BATTER VS. PITCHER(Career)
vs Randy Wolf
Player AB H HR BB SO AVG
Hammonds 5 3 1 1 0 .600
Hernandez 11 6 1 1 3 .545
Bako 5 2 0 0 3 .400
Loretta 8 3 0 1 0 .375
Sexson 3 1 0 0 1 .333

BATTER VS. PITCHER(Career)
vs Jose Mesa
Player AB H HR BB SO AVG
Hernandez 6 2 0 1 2 .333
Hammonds 8 2 1 2 4 .250
Harris 4 1 0 1 0 .250
Fabregas 9 2 0 0 2 .222
Sexson 5 1 1 0 3 .200


HEAD TO HEAD
Batting
Average .258

.256

Runs 493

565

Hits 1080

1092

Pitching
ERA 4.73

4.36

Hits Allowed 1141

1080

Runs Allowed 626

586

Complete Head To Head


Brewers Phillies

 

[H-Town]

Thanks guys.

Nick as far as dipping into accounts. I agree entirely. either way though I am going to help him out so he doesnt have to cal his parents which means unless I win I dip. I have my quarterly bonus coming in September which will bankroll football so Im ok there. I just wanted to give this a try. But you are probably correct.

As far as Philly. Wolf is their ace, with him on the mound afte their bats woke up last night is a positive, theyy've beaten mil every time this year except two nights ago (of course I was on them there), and mil has just been horrible the 4th game of any series this year.

Of course there is the Philly anti mojo gonig against me. They have cost me more than any team this year other than Seattle. Worst loss of the season was a few months ago on a Sunday they were playing Montreal and I had Philly. Philly had been up by like 6 runs going into the 8th and ended up losing. You guys remember...there were like 2 or 3 fights.

Anyway...lets just assume I am going for it. Should I go for a few medium or small plays and who should I bet if not Philly. I'll take consensus (no disrespect to thisisbad) in this thread and make up my mind in a little while. I really do appreciate everyones insight. This is more fun than stressful for me. its just money at the end of the day. If you lose it there is more of it down the road.

 

[theGibber1]

nick is right chaseing is the worst thing you could do!


and a friend of mine had a t shirt (dont ask where he got it) but the slogan on the shirt are words to live by.


" a friend in need is a pain in the ass"

lol

i wonder if he still has that shirt?

good luck


as far as the phill game

take the under 9!


good luck

 

[Nickelback]

HTown,

I suppose if I was down to the last few units in my bankroll and wanted to play them all on one game today, Philly would be it (in baseball that is). . . looks like very good value for the juice you have to lay down.

No matter your decision, I wish you luck. . . but as the rest have said, gambling usually isn't the way to go when you NEED to make money fast.

Looks like some of the very best on here are on Philly as well so you would be in good company.

 

[H-Town]

Thanks for everyones insight so far.

Only other plays out there I seem to like so far are

Philly under (but Mils new pitcher scares me...dont know what to really expect - as Livin Lareg has so correctly pointed out)

Zona (and maybe the over)

Minny

Clev under 9

 

[FED]

you should just play all you picks today, and not put all your eggs in one basket, then you wont loose everything,


just tell your friend to take out a personal loan, or credit card loan, or have a couple friends help, or a sibling


damn, he must be a good friend, i have been screwed on a lot on "friendly" promises:nono:

 

[H-Town]

FED: Hes a very good friend and he has done th same for me in the past.

Pulled the trigger 10 units on Philly. I was pulled both ways but when I went back and looked since Wolf has come on strong say the last 7 weeks Philly has won only one game in a row one time every other time it has been in bunches. Wish me luck. Hopefully I'll be closer to the goal in a few hours. Thanks again guys.

Oh yeah MOJO - :moon: :moon:

 

[Nickelback]

Good luck HTown. . . hope things work out for both of us on this one.

 

[H-Town]

THANKS!GL to you too...

 

[H-Town]

To those who got me off the under 4 in the first 4.5 inning and of fthe under on the game (livin large etc)... I owe you a cold one. My treat next time you are in Houston

 

[hellah10]

so far so good 3-0

 

[TJBELL]

H-town, what did you end up playing???