Need help with hedging

[Cortez]

I originally posted this in the General Discussion forum, but it was suggested to try posting it here to...

Prior to the US Open I made several futures (all "to win tournament outright"), and now that we're into the semi's I'm sitting pretty but want to hedge out to ensure a nice profit. I'm fairly new to betting futures like this so I'm not sure what the best strategy is when hedging. Here's what I got...

I'm in for 10u so far on 5 different guys. 3 have been eliminated (Dimitrov, Berdych, Isner), but I still have the following bets in play:

Djokovic: 6u to win 11.5u
Cilic: 1u to win 150u

Cilic plays Federer next. I'm considering either buying some out on Federer to win match at -325, or taking Federer to win it all at +270.

I'm not going to bother with Nishikori.

Any thoughts?

 

[sds222]

If you put 4 units on Fed to win it all +270 = 10.8, then:

If joke wins, 11.5U minus 1u (cilic) and 4u (fed) = 6.5U
If fed wins, 10.8U minus 6u (djok) and 1u (cilic) = 2.8U
If cilic wins, 150U minus 6u (djok) and 4u (fed) = 140U

If Nishi wins your screwed.

I would probably just let it eat only because it's hard for me to see Fed beating Djok or even Cilic at this point. He looked awful vulnerable against Monfils.

The other guys in here would probably have more insight than me so take this with a grain of salt.

 

[kickserv]

My two cents............

1st off, I don't hedge, I always say if you place the bet on someone to win then stick with it, why did you place the bet in the 1st place if you aren't going to ride it out:shrug:

For example I have Caroline Wozniacki to win the US Open at odds of 29-1 and I ain't hedging that bet.

Anyway with that being said, if you want to hedge wait until the final, no matter what you do you can still screw yourself. For example with the scenario that sds222 posted you will be screwed if Kei Nishikori wins. When there are two players left you know exactly what you are in for, that is why I would wait, especially considering you have huge odds on Marin Cilic.

You did not say how much you wagered on Dimitrov, Berdych, or Isner so it is impossible for me to figure out what scenario would make you the best profit on the remaining 4 players. Of course you know so it is possible that you could figure out what is best by taking "to win the tournament" on the following 4 players.....

Current odds around the following odds....

Novak Djokovic 1.50 (-200)
Roger Federer 3.50 (+250)
Kei Nishikori 21-1
Marin Cilic 21-1

You could figure out what is best for you using those odds above.

By the way make sure you know the rules of your book, it is possible you could "screw yourself" by a match being voided if match is not completed. For example say you want to hedge with Kei Nishikori, a player retires in third set, the bet might be void, so it is like you never placed the bet, that could cost ya. That won't happen if you hedge with a "Futures" wager.

Good luck with whatever you choose to do.

But as I said....kickserv never hedges:firing:

 

[kickserv]

Cilic: 1u to win 150u

For the record.......that would be a sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet payout:00hour

 

[Cortez]

Alright, you talked me into it, let's see this thing play out and hope for the best! If I could get better odds on Fed to win I think I'd hedge out some but with current odds there's no point. My tennis units are smaller than in other sports anyway so if Fed or Nishi win I won't be too upset.

Very good advice about knowing the book's rules. I got screwed in MLB this year when I didn't have "listed pitchers must start", there was a pitching change, and they automatically changed my odds (significantly) without my consent. I still think it was shady, but to their credit it was in the rules.

Thanks for the replies and best of luck with the Woz!!! I saw her live a few years back in Indian Wells when she beat Bartoli in the finals. I liked her before that but I've been an even bigger fan of hers ever since.

 

[kickserv]

Thanks for the replies and best of luck with the Woz!!! I saw her live a few years back in Indian Wells when she beat Bartoli in the finals. I liked her before that but I've been an even bigger fan of hers ever since.

Go Wozzy:00hour

 

[THE_THONG]

woz a hottie

she needs to defeat the deathstar (serena)


----

don't think federer will win it

he looks listless, almost beating himself, he'll choke

 

[Jimboski]

My one cent of hedging advice

My one cent of hedging advice

Don't know how you'll come out of it IF DeJoka wns it and it sure LOOKS like he might. It all depends on how much you put on the 3 that are out. Appears like you'll surely come out in the red a bit if you add to the pot (hedge) and DeJoka does win this thing.

Only one I'd consider is maybe ONE STINKIN unit on Nisikori cause that would be some hot ass burner for you if he does and, you know, ANYTHING can happen with these things we do when it comes to gambling. This reminds of a time I played a daily doubles and caught the first race wiener at better than 35 to 1. Had that bastage with 11 hosses in the 2nd race, left out the 12th who was a fist time starter with a poor jockey, trainer, and workouts were teriible. Had $5 doubles with 5 of the 2nd race horses and $2 doubles with the other 6 that I played.

I'll never forget that day at Monmouth Park, many moons ago. You know the rest

 

[kickserv]

kickserv handing out props............

http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/...eptember-8th&p=3727979&viewfull=1#post3727979

 

[Cortez]

Thanks kick, I owe you a big wet one for talking me out of hedging! :0008

Nishi line at -125 currently... I HAVE to hedge here don't I??? Haha, I know I'm asking the wrong guy.

I just figure if I put, say, 30u on Nishi, then I can still cheer for Cilic but will be happy either way. You think the line will move much before Monday? I want to sleep on it before I do anything.

Oh, and to answer your question, I had 1u on each of Berdych (80-1), Dimitrov (20-1) and Isner (230-1). I'm in for 10u total so far... hopefully I can walk away with a lot more! :00hour

 

[Bombs]

Thanks kick, I owe you a big wet one for talking me out of hedging! :0008

Nishi line at -125 currently... I HAVE to hedge here don't I??? Haha, I know I'm asking the wrong guy.

I just figure if I put, say, 30u on Nishi, then I can still cheer for Cilic but will be happy either way. You think the line will move much before Monday? I want to sleep on it before I do anything.

Oh, and to answer your question, I had 1u on each of Berdych (80-1), Dimitrov (20-1) and Isner (230-1). I'm in for 10u total so far... hopefully I can walk away with a lot more! :00hour

no need to be a hero here. the money is yours.

decide how much you would bet on cilic over nishikori. hedge to put that amount in play. you have already cleared a ton. would you put 75x on cilic in this match????? hell now. who cares about those other plays you lost, those are done.

for example. if you have 1 for 150 on cilic and would be comfortable with a 2.5x play on cilic over nishikori, then put

81 to win 65 on cilic. gives you +64 if nishi wins, +69 if cilic wins.

don't be stupid. you have already won here. this is one match.

 

[Cortez]

Thanks Bombs, you just made my decision a lot easier. Just bought out, no need to sleep on it.

Total amount wagered on tournament = 96.4u

Nishikori win = 154u (58u profit)

Cilic win = 165u (69u profit)

Just to clarify, I actually had 1.1u on Cilic for some reason, not 1.

Feels very very good. Gonna sleep like a baby tonight.

 

[THE_THONG]

throw a party at tim hortons with the winnings :0074

 

[kickserv]

throw a party at tim hortons with the winnings :0074

:facepalm:

 

[Cortez]

throw a party at tim hortons with the winnings :0074

Lol that would buy a whole lotta Timbits!

 

[Jimboski]

Thanks Bombs, you just made my decision a lot easier. Just bought out, no need to sleep on it.

.... Just to clarify, I actually had 1.1u on Cilic for some reason, not 1

THANK YOU for clarifying this, Cortez.