Need Help!

[trump tight]

3/22/2003 2:17 PM Parlay 10.00 200.00 Basketball - 722 Oklahoma -7? -110 for Game
Basketball - 724 Kansas -8 -110 for Game
Basketball - 725 Gonzaga +9? -110 for Game
Basketball - 729 Connecticut -3 -110 for Game
Basketball - 731 Tulsa +3 -110 for Game


Should I hedge with a bet on ASU +8 to win 100, or let it ride for a chance to win 200 on a 10$ bet?!?

I think I know what I should do, but need some insight.

 

[CAP5]

Trump Tight,

There is no way I would let it ride on a favorite in this crazy tournament. This is a no-brainer to me. Lay $100 on Arizona State. This way, you are guaranteed to win $90.

GL

 

[nakor]

Why would you bet a 4 team parlay if you are planning to hedge after 3 wins? Better to just bet the 3 teamer. If you liked Kansas originally and still like them now, I see no reason to change your mind.

That is why I do not play >2 team parlays very often.

 

[CAP5]

It's a five teamer, and he's hedging after four have already come in. Kansas is the last play in the parlay. He's doing the right thing.

 

[nakor]

Right, it's a 5 teamer. My point is still valid - why not just bet the 4 teamer? This way you are paying juice twice. If the amount you could win makes a big difference to your bankroll, you should not be betting 5 team parlays.

My point is that either it was a mistake to bet a 5-teamer or it would be a mistake to hedge. I vote for #1.

Either way GL. Not trying to bust balls, just trying to educate.

 

[CAP5]

I disagree. Gambling is all about winning money. I don't care if it's $90 or $200. I guess we agree to disagree.

GL

 

[trump tight]

NAKOR

NAKOR

I'm not following your logic on this one.

 

[metch]

All depends on how you manage your money....If you really like Kansas tonight let it ride. If your so-so, put the $100 on ASU...

It all depends on how you are doing for the week also..If you need the money, then do the smart thing and get the for sure cash. If its play money, then ride....gl

 

[nakor]

OK, let me try again.

Let's say you decide to hedge by betting $110 to win $100 on ASU +8. Total amt bet = $120. Then you have two possibilities:

Kansas covers: Return $210, Profit = $90
ASU covers: Return $210, Profit = $90

Now let's say you had left Kansas off your original parlay and just done the 4-teamer at 10-1.

Total amt bet = $10 Return = $110 Profit = $100

So if you are planning to hedge your bet, you are basically paying the juice on the parlay PLUS the juice on the hedge. You can see you would make more money by just leaving Kansas out.

It took me a while to realize that... I used to do the same thing, bet 5 or 6 team parlay and then hedge the last 2 teams. Then I realized that if I was going to hedge it was more profitable to leave off the teams I would have hedged. You can always bet them later, even parlay them using the $ from your winnings.