not sure if I'm too early to hedge or not but would like some input from the experts.
I bet denver to win the conference at the beginning of the year at 35-1, for one unit. Do I or should I hedge anything this week or hope they somehow make it past NE and hedge it next week. Thanks in advance. Good luck this week!
with a NE -750 ML this week, i think cash is right when he said you should tease NE Saturday night.
this is what i would do--it puts some cash at risk but gives you the most W-W situations that i see: (i'm using 5dimes #s)
12.5pt tease NE -2' + HOU+21' or NYG+21' -380 $11.4 to win $3
and also play these Props:
AFC Champ outcome...
HOU over DEN +3175 $.50
BAL over DEN +1043 $1.5
so if DEN loses to NE (by a FG at least--which they probably will), you have either HOU+21' OR NYG+21' that you can hedge/middle with a -9 at a + price or -7' or -7 at a - price. don't see either +21' losing, esp HOU. if you like the Saints this weekend, you could just have the other half of the teaser be NO+9 (i like that bet, but if it loses you're out the stake of that bet and have to re-bet the NE-2').
i like this rather than letting it ride because it's basically a free opportunity at a middle
on the off chance that DEN beats NE, you are -$11.4 from the teaser, but you now have:
DEN +3500 and either BAL +1564 (1.5x1043) or HOU +1587 ($.50x3175)
DEN will be a 4-5pt dog @HOU, 9-10pt dog @BAL... giving you MLs of -210/+190 or -330/+300...
so if you end up with DEN@HOU, you win $2.97 with HOU, $21.6 with DEN which you can hedge with HOU-210 from HOU $3.97/DEN $19.5 all the way to HOU $8.97 /DEN $9
if it ends up DEN@BAL, you're -$11.9 (+/- depending how the BAL bet goes if you place it), but have BAL +1564 and DEN +3500, so you win $3.74 on BAL, $23.1 on DEN.
you could tease NE down to -1 or -.5 if you don't have the stomach for having $13.9 at risk if it lands NE by 2 or 1.
hope that was clear, and if not sane, it at least helped your thought process. i enjoy thinking through these situations if you couldn't tell. locking in wins before the games have started... doesn't get much better than that. PLEASE LET ME KNOW IF I MISSED SOMETHING HERE.
:toast:
