Boise State is clearly the class of the WAC. That?s not saying much, but since we?re talking about an in-conference game here, it is important. I believe that BSU has beaten every team in the conference with a winning record, except for Hawaii. The best thing about this BSU team is its predictability ? they do better against weaker opponents passwise, runwise and scorewise. They almost always pass more against weak pass defenses and almost always run more against weak run defenses. This may seem an obvious strategy to us outsiders, but believe me, we must be missing something, as this is not at all the dominant strategy. Since everyone in the WAC who isn?t BSU has defensive numbers in the same neighborhood, I think that a good estimate of BSU?s scoring in this game is simply how they have tended to do in conference games. In conference games against teams that have won at least 5 games, they averaged 33 points. I suspect they?ll get more this game, but for now, let?s work with 33.
At Nevada, the fade to ignominy has been sad to watch. Remember a couple of years ago when Chance Kretschmer was The Man? No longer. Nevada?s stats don?t look too bad on the surface, but it's worse than it looks. Though it is partly the fault of the none-too-stellar defense, the offense is having trouble getting much more than 60 plays off against teams above .500. You?ve got to figure that they will try to run the ball around 25 -30 times, so that only leaves 30-35 plays for Heiser to try to move the ball through the air. If he plays like he usually plays, about half of those attempts will be completions, one will be a TD and one will go to a BSU defender. Now, the BSU run defense is a metric buttload better than anything they?ve faced this year, and the BSU pass defense is below (WAC) average, so Heiser's numbers probably should be bumped up a bit. Still, it?s hard to see how Nevada is going to break 20. 14 seems to me to be a good working estimate here.
So, at this point, a spread of around 19 seems reasonable. Boise State is great at home, losing only once there this millennium. That might be worth 3 points, but HFA is already implicitly in my numbers, so I can?t add that. BJ Mitchell probably won?t play, but that is just more rushing yards that Nevada won?t get ? no need to adjust.
Now, for the adjustments that I DO think need to be made. First off, if Nevada is held to around 60-65 plays, BSU should get more than their average number of snaps. If we give them an extra half dozen plays, their scoring should increase proportionately. Second, BSU?s conference numbers are pulled down somewhat by Dinwiddie?s sub par game against Tulsa. In the other games, he averaged about 62% completions; against Tulsa, he completed only 46%. To me, Tulsa?s pass defense alone cannot justify the lower completion rate. I think (yes, only my opinion) that this was just one of those games for Dinwiddie. Tulsa also happens to be the conference game with BSU?s lowest scoring output. Lastly, only looking at the scoring against conference opponents with 5 or more wins may be too restrictive, as wins and losses were distributed rather whimsically in the WAC this year. What are these three things worth? Maybe nothing, but I place them to be worth about 6 points altogether. That seems a lot to me, but that is what I get.
To bring it all home, I estimate that BSU is about 25 points better than Nevada at this time, at BSU, with this personnel, assuming that the weather doesn?t get significantly worse. This is too close to the current 22 point spread for me to think I have an advantage. I'm going to look for other games. NO BET.
(I know that the usual post around here touts one side or the other. I think there is a lot to be gained by seeing why people pass on a game as well. I know I'd like to see more.)
At Nevada, the fade to ignominy has been sad to watch. Remember a couple of years ago when Chance Kretschmer was The Man? No longer. Nevada?s stats don?t look too bad on the surface, but it's worse than it looks. Though it is partly the fault of the none-too-stellar defense, the offense is having trouble getting much more than 60 plays off against teams above .500. You?ve got to figure that they will try to run the ball around 25 -30 times, so that only leaves 30-35 plays for Heiser to try to move the ball through the air. If he plays like he usually plays, about half of those attempts will be completions, one will be a TD and one will go to a BSU defender. Now, the BSU run defense is a metric buttload better than anything they?ve faced this year, and the BSU pass defense is below (WAC) average, so Heiser's numbers probably should be bumped up a bit. Still, it?s hard to see how Nevada is going to break 20. 14 seems to me to be a good working estimate here.
So, at this point, a spread of around 19 seems reasonable. Boise State is great at home, losing only once there this millennium. That might be worth 3 points, but HFA is already implicitly in my numbers, so I can?t add that. BJ Mitchell probably won?t play, but that is just more rushing yards that Nevada won?t get ? no need to adjust.
Now, for the adjustments that I DO think need to be made. First off, if Nevada is held to around 60-65 plays, BSU should get more than their average number of snaps. If we give them an extra half dozen plays, their scoring should increase proportionately. Second, BSU?s conference numbers are pulled down somewhat by Dinwiddie?s sub par game against Tulsa. In the other games, he averaged about 62% completions; against Tulsa, he completed only 46%. To me, Tulsa?s pass defense alone cannot justify the lower completion rate. I think (yes, only my opinion) that this was just one of those games for Dinwiddie. Tulsa also happens to be the conference game with BSU?s lowest scoring output. Lastly, only looking at the scoring against conference opponents with 5 or more wins may be too restrictive, as wins and losses were distributed rather whimsically in the WAC this year. What are these three things worth? Maybe nothing, but I place them to be worth about 6 points altogether. That seems a lot to me, but that is what I get.
To bring it all home, I estimate that BSU is about 25 points better than Nevada at this time, at BSU, with this personnel, assuming that the weather doesn?t get significantly worse. This is too close to the current 22 point spread for me to think I have an advantage. I'm going to look for other games. NO BET.
(I know that the usual post around here touts one side or the other. I think there is a lot to be gained by seeing why people pass on a game as well. I know I'd like to see more.)
